Predicting effectiveness of flu vaccination campaigns
The Journal Vaccine publishes novel modeling approach for influenza pandemics
Amsterdam, February 9, 2010 – A new study, published by Elsevier this month in Vaccine describes a new method that assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of a range of vaccination options. The model was applied to the 2009 Influenza H1N1 outbreak and predicted accurately in real-time when the epidemic would peak and who should be prioritized for vaccination.
Last year, an outbreak of a novel strain of influenza linked to swine influenza was detected in Mexico. The infection has shown sustained human-to-human transmission across the world, leading the World Health Organization to declare an influenza pandemic. Vaccines specific for pandemic influenza have been successfully developed and the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization recommended that high-risk individuals be prioritized for vaccination.
Decisions about extending vaccination to low-risk individuals are heavily debated and depend partly on the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of such options. Marc Baguelin, Albert Jan Van Hoek and colleagues from the Health Protection Agency and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK describe how they fit a mathematical model to the estimated number of cases in real-time to predict the effectiveness of alternative influenza vaccination strategies. Specifically, they show that, vaccination of high risk groups was probably very cost effective. However, the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating children depended on the progress of the epidemic and may be cost-effective in countries where a flu pandemic is not so far advanced.
“Given the present debates in different European countries about the legitimacy of the different choices of vaccination our paper is very topical”, said Baguelin, “further it reinforces and expands a recent article, Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study, in The Lancet as it also suggests that many more people than first thought were infected in the summer wave of the swine flu pandemic”.
# # #
Notes to Editors:
Marc Baguelin, Albert Jan Van Hoek, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche, Peter J. White, and W. John Edmunds, Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluation, 2010 Vaccine, Article In Press.
Elsevier is a global information analytics business that helps scientists and clinicians to find new answers, reshape human knowledge, and tackle the most urgent human crises. For 140 years, we have partnered with the research world to curate and verify scientific knowledge. Today, we’re committed to bringing that rigor to a new generation of platforms. Elsevier provides digital solutions and tools in the areas of strategic research management, R&D performance, clinical decision support, and professional education; including ScienceDirect, Scopus, SciVal, ClinicalKey and Sherpath. Elsevier publishes over 2,500 digitized journals, including The Lancet and Cell, 39,000 e-book titles and many iconic reference works, including Gray's Anatomy. Elsevier is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. www.elsevier.com
Floris de Hon
+31 20 485 2498