International Futures

International Futures

Building and Using Global Models

1st Edition - March 19, 2019

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  • Author: Barry Hughes
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780128042717
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128134221

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Description

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models  extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

Key Features

  • Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior
  • Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems
  • Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)

Readership

Developers and users of forecasting models and systems such as students and scholars in statistics, social sciences (incl. environmental sciences and economics), policy analysts and researchers in a wide range of government, international and non-government organisations. Users of forecasts who need to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the tools behind the forecasts

Table of Contents

  • 1. Introduction
    2. Building a Global Model: The Toolkit
    3. The Evolution of Global Modeling
    4. Introducing International Futures
    5. The Future of Human Development
    6. The Future of Socioeconomic Development
    7. The Future of Sustainable Development
    8. Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty
    9. Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System

Product details

  • No. of pages: 330
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Academic Press 2019
  • Published: March 19, 2019
  • Imprint: Academic Press
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780128042717
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128134221

About the Author

Barry Hughes

Ratings and Reviews

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  • BarryHughes Sat Apr 20 2019

    International Futures: Building and Using Global Models

    As the author (transparency remains a virtue) I am a tad prejudiced. But this book not only provides more coverage on the International Futures (IFs) system than is available anywhere else, it provides a great deal of information about global models in each of the areas of modeling integrated into the IFs system: demographics, economics, education, health, governance, societal finance, energy, agriculture, infrastructure and the environment (carbon/warming and water). Perhaps greater breadth of global model coverage (across world models and integrated assessment models) than available in any other single location. Feedback is welcome.