Introduction. The Discovery of `Higher Statistics' in Economic Research. The Emergence of Structural Estimation. The Historical Context of Structural Estimation. Promises and Problems of Structural Estimation. Contemporary Alternatives to Simultaneous Equations Estimation. Exogeneity. Vector Autoregressions. Conclusion. Bibliography. Indexes.
This comparative historical study of econometrics focuses on the development of econometric methods and their application to macroeconomics.
The analysis covers the origins of modern econometrics in the USA and Europe during the 1920's and 30's, the rise of `structural estimation' in the 1940's and 50's as the dominant research paradigm, and the crisis of the large macroeconomic models in the 1970's and 80's.
The completely original feature of this work is the use of previously unknown manuscript material from the archives of the Cowles Commission and other collections. The history so constructed shows that recent debates over methodology are incomplete without understanding the many deep criticisms that were first raised by the earliest researchers in the field.
- No. of pages:
- © North Holland 1987
- 1st July 1987
- North Holland
- eBook ISBN:
@qu:In this highly readable, well written text, Epstein has provided a most welcome addition to the literature of the history of our subject.... The detailed historical research involved in the writing of this book is admirable; indeed, one of its striking qualities is the extensive use made of primary source material... the evidence cited from these sources complements that obtainable from numerous secondary sources. The ease with which the author has succeeded in communicating complex concepts and techniques will guarantee that this book's readership will extend beyond that of trained econometricians. Epstein has written an important book which will, hopefully, herald further contributions to the history of econometrics so that we might better understand and appreciate the role which empirical work can play in the social sciences. @source: Adrian C. Darnell in The Economic Journal, 1988 @qu:...a most refreshing account of the methodological problems and foundations of econometrics...........a fascinating portrayal of the history of this discussion centred around the concept of structural models (structural estimation. @source: P. Schönfeld, Journal of Economics, 1989 @from:Albert Jolink and J. Tinbergen @qu:....Epstein's book is stimulating. It leaves ample room for critical discussion and thus deserves reading.....every student of econometrics should be aware of Epstein's contribution to the study of the history of the discipline.... @source:Journal of the History of Economic Thought