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A Historical Introduction to Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Seminal Papers in Epidemiology offers step-by-step help on how to navigate the important historical papers on the subject, beginning in the 18th century. The book carefully, and critically, guides the reader through seminal writings that helped revolutionize the field.
With pointed questions, prompts, and analysis, this book helps the non-mathematician develop their own perspective, relying purely on a basic knowledge of algebra, calculus, and statistics. By learning from the important moments in the field, from its conception to the 21st century, it enables readers to mature into competent practitioners of epidemiologic modeling.
- Presents a refreshing and in-depth look at key historical works of mathematical epidemiology
- Provides all the basic knowledge of mathematics readers need in order to understand the fundamentals of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases
- Includes questions, prompts, and answers to help apply historical solutions to modern day problems
Professional epidemiologists, graduate and postgraduate students in epidemiology
- Motivation and short history (of this book)
- Structure and suggested use of the book
- Target audience
- Mathematical background
- Miscellaneous remarks
- 1: D. Bernoulli: A pioneer of epidemiologic modeling (1760)
- 1.1. Bernoulli and the “speckled monster”
- Appendix 1.A. Answers
- Appendix 1.B. Supplementary material
- 2: P.D. En'ko: An early transmission model (1889)
- 2.1. Introduction
- 2.2. Assumptions
- 2.3. The model
- 2.4. Simulation model
- Appendix 2.A. Answers
- Appendix 2.B. Supplementary material
- 3: W.H. Hamer (1906) and H. Soper (1929): Why diseases come and go
- 3.1. Introduction
- 3.2. Hamer: Variability and persistence
- 3.3. Soper: Periodicity in disease prevalence
- Appendix 3.A.
- Appendix 3.B. Answers
- Appendix 3.C. Supplementary material
- 4: W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick: A seminal contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics (1927)
- 4.1. Introduction
- 4.2. General theory: (2) through (7)
- 4.3. Special cases: (8) through (13)
- Appendix 4.A.
- Appendix 4.B. Answers
- Appendix 4.C. Supplementary material
- 5: R. Ross (1910, 1911) and G. Macdonald (1952) on the persistence of malaria
- 5.1. Introduction
- 5.2. Ross: What keeps malaria going?
- 5.3. George Macdonald: Malaria equilibrium beyond Ross
- Appendix 5.A. Answers
- 6: M. Bartlett (1949), N.T. Bailey (1950, 1953) and P. Whittle (1955): Pioneers of stochastic transmission models
- 6.1. Introduction: Stochastic transmission models
- 6.2. Bailey: A simple stochastic transmission model
- 6.3. M.S. Bartlett: Infectious disease transmission as stochastic process
- 6.4. Bailey revisited: Final size of a stochastic epidemic
- 6.5. P. Whittle: Comment on Bailey
- Appendix 6.A. Answers
- Appendix 6.B. Supplementary material
- 7: O. Diekmann, J. Heesterbeek, and J.A. Metz (1991) and P. Van den Driessche and J. Watmough (2002): The spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
- 7.1. Introduction: Non-homogeneous transmission
- 7.2. Diekmann, Heesterbeek and Metz: The basic reproduction number in heterogeneous populations I
- 7.3. P. Van den Driessche and J. Watmough: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
- Appendix 7.A. Answers
- Appendix 7.B. Supplementary material
- No. of pages:
- © Academic Press 2017
- 21st October 2016
- Academic Press
- Paperback ISBN:
- eBook ISBN:
Ivo Foppa studied medicine in Bern, Switzerland (1981-87) and received his doctorate in medicine in 1991. Between 1988 and 1994, he worked as a resident in various hospitals in Switzerland and as an epidemiologist at the University of Bern. In 1994, he received a fellowship from the Swiss Science Foundation for training in epidemiology at the Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA. He received a MSc in 1995 and was awarded a Doctor of Science (ScD) degree for his dissertation entitled "Emergence and Persistence: Epidemiologic Aspects of Tick-Borne Zoonoses in Eastern Switzerland" in November, 2001. He taught epidemiology at the Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina (2002-2007) and at the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Public Health (2008-2011). His research focused on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. Since 2011, he works as a Sr. Research Scientist (contractor) in the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division/NCIRD/CDC where he has been working on methodological issues associated with influenza vaccine effectiveness assessment as well as question relevant to the quantification of the public health burden from influenza.
Adjunct Associate Professor, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
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