The End of Driving

The End of Driving is a very comprehensive thought provoking (300+ pages) work on the impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on our cities and transportation system. This book will appeal to both those that are new to and others more familiar with AV technology and the policy implications of AVs. The book covers many topics, such as the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) Levels 1 to 5, various potential AV eras (time periods of AV evolution), points of technological disruption, why we focus on the wrong issues, the impact on public transit systems, ridesharing, realistic changes to traditional vehicle ownership scenarios, internal combustion vs. electric vehicle power, how soon will full automation (SAE Level 5) become mainstream, service delivery and social equity, behavioural economics and a variety of solutions, such as AVs and TOD (Transit Oriented Development), MaaS (Mobility as a Service), different market scenarios and new governance models.

For someone like myself involved professionally in public transit, parking and transportation planning for 4 decades, the book challenged my own long held preconceived notions about AVs and opened my eyes to a new way of thinking about the future in an AV world. The authors are to be congratulated for their extensive research and formulating well thought out arguments for challenging the media-hyped "general public" version of AVs promoted in articles, social media and TV. A major take-away of the book is the author's prime solution being a Harmonization Management System (HMS) involving 3 principal roles: JDMs (Jurisdiction Demand Manager), Travelers (ride buyer and transit users) and Transportation Service Providers (commercial vendors, transit agencies and public-private partners). The authors state that HMS is "a new way to specify and regulate growing fleets toward the ideal of sustainable, optimized performance including social equity that embraces all citizens and visitors.....the licensing of regulated operators to manage fleets under government selected, user shaped social performance criteria.....fleet operators would be free to innovate vehicles, services, and prices subject to safety, privacy, and security certifications...."

The book is exceptionally well structured with a table of contents, excellent extensive index (for quick access to subjects, glossary (very helpful, especially for non-technical readers), ten (10) pages of references, many headings and subheadings and exercises at the end of each chapter (more for seminars provided by the authors, but not necessary for the general reader). There are many tables and some graphics, however, it would benefit readers if more summary tables and graphics were interspersed of the blocks of text in a future edition to facilitate reader comprehension, particularly of the new ideas expressed by the authors.

This book reminded me of the late Alvin Toffler's best seller book, "Future Shock" (1970) where many readers and reviewers at the time, thought Toffler's predictions were too far fetched and unrealistic. Yet, a few decades later, many came to fruition, such as the rise of the internet and cable TV, genetic engineering/ cloning and consumerism. Grush and Niles acknowledge in one of their conclusions, that "..... predicting reliably how mobility digitization will unfold, or how its multiple facets will interact is impossible. No one has determined a way to model and manage these changes." Like "Future Shock," there is a good probability that many of the ideas expressed in the End of Driving may happen in the coming years. Highly recommended for those wanting to learn and understand more about AVs and a range of future possibilities for our cities and transportation systems.

This is a brilliant analysis of trends likely to affect urban mobility with the advent of autonomous vehicles - a comprehensive overview of issues and challenges, with a view towards optimizing future deployment for efficiency and effectiveness. In the face of major uncertainty about the future, the authors expertly address impending trade-offs and options for policy to guide the impact of autonomous vehicles. A must-read for anyone interested in our urban future.

THE END OF DRIVING: “A Strategic Vision”
William H. Gruber, PhD

The Bern Grush and John Niles book “The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles” is a remarkable visionary guideline for management at a very early stage in a future in which technology SUPPLY-PUSH has lept ahead of DEMAND-PULL in the fusion of Supply and Demand in the realization of massive potential societal and private benefit. Grush and Niles identify the multiple forces in Supply and Demand Fusion in which multiple stakeholders must respond with a shared vision.

The logic in the process of public policy facilitation of the fusion of Supply-Push and Demand-Pull in the projection of a future paradigm shift realization is well documented, thus Grush and Niles have produced a HANDBOOK for a wide range of stakeholders.

“The End of Driving” is an important resource for multiple Supply-Push inventors who at high risk now invest. This book is also a TUTORIAL for education in the academic, government/private stakeholder fusion of Supply and Demand in a time of major paradigm shift.

“Exercise” questions at the end of each chapter engage the reader from an academic perspective early in the learning curve and are also valuable to innovators. The well-recognized book by Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen, “The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail” (1997), is one of many publications that support the Grush-Niles lessons that Supply/Demand Fusion projects have a high failure rate. “The End of Driving” is a competent resource to guide a visionary investment in Supply-Push/ Demand-Pull Fusion.

From my historical evaluation, “The End of Driving” is an apt resource similar to other major paradigm shifts, such as recognition of the human challenge in space with large government effort to build competent public policy to overcome the high rate of failure and long calendar delays that are common in the realization of societal, business, and population benefit.

Well researched and practical guidance by Niles and Gush on one of the most urgent and perplexing challenges facing most of us here in the USA
Thanks to you both for such an outstanding publication on tackling one of the most economically damaging problems in our country today.
I learned a lot!!

As a former transportation policy maker with a continuing interest in the myriad of new transportation technologies, I was impressed to find a book that looks at autonomous vehicles as more than a cool or troubling development for our cities and metro areas. The authors argue that while impacts can go either way toward improving or worsening the state of mobility in our urban centers (who doesn’t know that by now?), they are optimistic that there is an enormous upside for reducing car-ownership, if only governments and other institutions take the right policy steps. Their suggestions are refreshing since they are aligned with the digitalization of mobility instead of the usual permit, tax, constrain, or build approaches of the past.

Most interesting in this book is the degree to which Grush and Niles deep dive into the benefits of owning vehicles versus the benefits of buying rides from ride-hailers like Uber or Lyft. I found it intriguing that the authors, although obviously transit advocates, admit to all the reasons most folks hang on to their automobiles, then offer a whole chapter on behavioral economic ideas to turn them into ride buyers — ideas they also admit are double-edged swords that can be used in reverse.

Overall, there are a lot of valuable ideas here that have never been put together in one place. That is good. Still, I sense there is much more to be examined. There has been a recent flood of stories in the daily tech news about Waymo, GM, and Uber firing up large fleets of autonomous taxis. So if in 2018 we are really so close to this, this book should be on the critical reading list for transportation planners and policy makers. And perhaps an expanded, second edition will follow that will explore these developments.

Dick Nelson, Sc.D.
Previously member of Transportation Committee, Washington State House of Representatives
Legislative co-author of least-cost transportation planning methodology and state growth management act