Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780128117149

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

1st Edition

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

Editors: Andrew Robertson Frederic Vitart
Paperback ISBN: 9780128117149
Imprint: Elsevier
Published Date: 31st October 2018
Page Count: 585
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Description

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions.

The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

Key Features

  • Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications
  • Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field
  • Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making
  • Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Readership

Climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, Oceanographers. Professionals working in the fields of energy, insurance, public health, water resource management, disaster risk reduction, agriculture

Table of Contents

Part I: Setting the scene

  1. Introduction: Why S2S?
  2. Frederic Vitart and Andrew W. Robertson

  3. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?
  4. Zoltan Toth & Roberto Buizza

  5. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics
  6.  Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang

  7. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approach
  8. Gilbert Brunet & John Methven

    Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability

  9. The Madden-Julian Oscillation
  10. Steve J. Woolnough

  11. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view
  12. Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson

  13. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections
  14. Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, and Cristiana Stan

  15. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction
  16. Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo

  17. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction
  18. R. Saravanan and P. Chang

  19. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability
  20. Matthieu Chevallier, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung and François Massonnet

  21. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere
  22. Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son

    Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting

  23. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity
  24. Yuhei Takaya

  25. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
  26. Roberto Buizza

  27. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation
  28. In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, and Aneesh Subramanian

  29. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination
  30. Stefan Siegert, David Stephenson

  31. Forecast verification for S2S time scales
  32. Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati

    Part IV: S2S Applications

  33. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes
  34. Frédéric Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael DeFlorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett

  35. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross
  36. Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez

  37. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities
  38. Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew DeGennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins

  39. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases
  40. A.K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M Krishna, D. R. Pattnaik, S Abhilash

  41. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts
  42. Rafael Terra and Walter E. Baethgen

  43. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales

 Adrian M. Tompkins, Rachel Lowe, Hannah Nissan, Nadege Martiny, Pascal Roucou, Madeleine C. Thomson, Tetsuo Nakazawa

Details

No. of pages:
585
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Elsevier 2019
Published:
Imprint:
Elsevier
Paperback ISBN:
9780128117149

About the Editor

Andrew Robertson

Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world.

Affiliations and Expertise

Senior Research Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, USA

Frederic Vitart

Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.

Affiliations and Expertise

Senior Research Scientist, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK

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