Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

1st Edition - October 19, 2018
This is the Latest Edition
  • Editors: Andrew Robertson, Frederic Vitart
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128117156
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128117149

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Description

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

Key Features

  • Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications
  • Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field
  • Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making
  • Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Readership

Climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, Oceanographers. Professionals working in the fields of energy, insurance, public health, water resource management, disaster risk reduction, agriculture

Table of Contents

  • Part I: Setting the scene

    1. Introduction: Why S2S?
    2. Frederic Vitart and Andrew W. Robertson

    3. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?
    4. Zoltan Toth & Roberto Buizza

    5. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics
    6.  Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang

    7. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approach
    8. Gilbert Brunet & John Methven

      Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability

    9. The Madden-Julian Oscillation
    10. Steve J. Woolnough

    11. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view
    12. Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson

    13. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections
    14. Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, and Cristiana Stan

    15. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction
    16. Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo

    17. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction
    18. R. Saravanan and P. Chang

    19. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability
    20. Matthieu Chevallier, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung and François Massonnet

    21. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere
    22. Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son

      Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting

    23. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity
    24. Yuhei Takaya

    25. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
    26. Roberto Buizza

    27. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation
    28. In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, and Aneesh Subramanian

    29. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination
    30. Stefan Siegert, David Stephenson

    31. Forecast verification for S2S time scales
    32. Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati

      Part IV: S2S Applications

    33. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes
    34. Frédéric Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael DeFlorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett

    35. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross
    36. Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez

    37. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities
    38. Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew DeGennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins

    39. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases
    40. A.K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M Krishna, D. R. Pattnaik, S Abhilash

    41. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts
    42. Rafael Terra and Walter E. Baethgen

    43. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales

     Adrian M. Tompkins, Rachel Lowe, Hannah Nissan, Nadege Martiny, Pascal Roucou, Madeleine C. Thomson, Tetsuo Nakazawa

Product details

  • No. of pages: 585
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Elsevier 2018
  • Published: October 19, 2018
  • Imprint: Elsevier
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128117156
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128117149

About the Editors

Andrew Robertson

Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world.

Affiliations and Expertise

Senior Research Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, USA

Frederic Vitart

Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.

Affiliations and Expertise

Senior Research Scientist, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK

Latest reviews

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  • AmyJohnson Thu Jan 24 2019

    Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction 1st Edition The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting

    Quick and easy order with reasonable pricing. Thank you!

  • EeswaranRasu Wed Jan 09 2019

    Eeswaran

    It is very useful book with good quality printing. Thanks.