Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions.

The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

• Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications
• Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field
• Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making
• Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, Oceanographers. Professionals working in the fields of energy, insurance, public health, water resource management, disaster risk reduction, agriculture

Part I: Setting the scene

1. Introduction: Why S2S?

Frederic Vitart and Andrew W. Robertson

2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?

Zoltan Toth & Roberto Buizza

3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics

　Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang

4. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approach

Gilbert Brunet & John Methven

Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability

5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation

Steve J. Woolnough

6. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view

Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson

7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections

Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, and Cristiana Stan

8. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction

Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo

9. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction

R. Saravanan and P. Chang

10. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability

Matthieu Chevallier, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung and François Massonnet

11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere

Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son

Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting

12. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity

Yuhei Takaya

13. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

Roberto Buizza

14. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation

In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, and Aneesh Subramanian

15. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination

Stefan Siegert, David Stephenson

16. Forecast verification for S2S time scales

Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati

Part IV: S2S Applications

17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes

Frédéric Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael DeFlorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett

18. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross

Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez

19. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities

Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew DeGennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins

20. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases

A.K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M Krishna, D. R. Pattnaik, S Abhilash

21. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts

Rafael Terra and Walter E. Baethgen

22. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales

　Adrian M. Tompkins, Rachel Lowe, Hannah Nissan, Nadege Martiny, Pascal Roucou, Madeleine C. Thomson, Tetsuo Nakazawa