Risk-Based Reliability Analysis and Generic Principles for Risk Reduction

1st Edition

Authors: Michael Todinov
Hardcover ISBN: 9780080447285
eBook ISBN: 9780080467559
Imprint: Elsevier Science
Published Date: 3rd November 2006
Page Count: 400
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This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk.

An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time.

Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable.

Key Features

  • Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses
  • Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk
  • Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design
  • Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators
  • Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation


This book is suitable for all students studying risk analysis, reliability and mechanical engineering. Also for risk analysts, reliability consultants, lecturers and practising reliability engineers. It is also suitable for engineering students, reliability and risk practitioners.

Table of Contents


  1. Risk-based reliability analysis - a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis
  2. Basic reliability concepts and conventions used for determining the losses from failures
  3. Methods for analysis of complex reliability networks
  4. Probabilistic risk assessment and risk management
  5. Potential loss from failure for non-repairable components and systems with multiple failure modes
  6. Losses from failures for repairable systems with components logically arranged in series
  7. Reliability analysis of complex repairable systems based on constructing the distribution of the potential losses
  8. Reliability value analysis for complex systems
  9. Reliability allocation based on minimising the total cost
  10. Generic approaches to reducing the likelihood of critical failures
  11. Specific principles for reducing the likelihood of failures
  12. Reducing the risk of failure by reducing the negative impact from the variability of design parameters
  13. Generic solutions for reducing the likelihood of overstress and wearout failures
  14. Reducing the risk of failure by removing latent faults, and avoiding common cause failures
  15. Consequence analysis and generic principles for reducing the consequences from failures
  16. Locally initiated failures and risk reduction Appendix A References


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© Elsevier Science 2007
Elsevier Science
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About the Author

Michael Todinov

Prof. Todinov’s background is Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science. He holds a PhD and a higher doctorate (DEng) from the University of Birmingham. His name is associated with key results in the areas: Reliability and Risk, Flow networks, Probability, Statistics of inhomogeneous media, Theory of phase transformations, Residual stresses and Probabilistic fatigue and fracture. M.Todinov pioneered research on: the theory of repairable flow networks and networks with disturbed flows, risk-based reliability analysis – driven by the cost of system failure, fracture initiated by flaws in components with complex shape, reliability dependent on the relative configurations of random variables and optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximal risk reduction. A sample of M.Todinov’s results include: introducing the hazard stress function for modelling the probability of failure of materials and deriving the correct alternative of the Weibull model; stating a theorem regarding the exact upper bound of properties from multiple sources and a theorem regarding variance of a distribution mixture; the formulation and proof of the necessary and sufficient conditions of the Palmgren-Miner rule and Scheil’s additivity rule; deriving the correct alternative of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation and stating the dual network theorems for static flows networks and networks with disturbed flows.

Affiliations and Expertise

Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK


"The referee finds this book quite interesting and recommends to the students of reliability and researchers to have a closer look at it so that further research can be initiated to develop tools hitherto were not possible and a realist approach to risk-based reliability design of systems is possible. This book should be a good addition to a library of books on reliability and risk."--International Journal of Performability Engineering