Nuclear Fuel Cycle Optimization

1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Introduction

Nuclear Fuels

Fuel Cycle Analysis

Uranium Mining

Enrichment

Separative Work

Cost of Enriched Uranium

Fuel Fabrication

Reactor

Spent Fuel Storage

Reprocessing

Conditioning and Disposal of Wastes

Recycle Value of Plutonium

LWR Recycle

Market Value of Plutonium


2. Uranium Supply and Demand

Introduction

Reasons for Uncertainty

Uranium Resources

Nuclear Capacity Projections

Cost of Uranium

Exhaustible Resource Model

Cost Effects of the Exploration Activity

Model equations

Fitted Parameters

Optimization Principle

A Case Study

Power Production Cost Elasticity

Coupling to Global Nuclear Scenarios

Simulation Principle

Illustrative Global Scenarios


3. Basic Model of the LWR Fuel Cycle

Introduction

Material Flow Model

Notation

Model Equations

Fuel Cycle Constraints

Minimization of Fuel Cycle Costs

Optimization Principle

Unit Process Costs

Treatment of Contract Terms

Value of Spent Fuel

A Case Study


4. Resolution of Uncertainties

Introduction

Unit Cost Distributions

Cost Uncertainty Parameters

An Application to Reprocessing Cost

Accumulation of Uncertainty in the Total Costs

Convolution Method

Arbitrary Probability Distributions

Application to Spent Fuel Management Cost

Advance Funding

A Case Study


5. Assessment of Proliferation Risks

Introduction

Source Materials

Separated Plutonium

Misuse of an Enrichment Facility

Undeclared Enrichment Facility

Undeclared Reprocessing Facility

Separation of Pu from Mixed Oxide Fuel

Assessment Criteria

Outline of an Assessment Method

Weighting the Criteria

Pairwise Comparisons

A Case Study

Evaluation of the Risk Utility Components

Cost and Time Criteria

Other Criteria

Case Study Continued

Compound Risk Utility

Utility Functions

Fuzzy Integration

Risk from an Entire Cycle


6. Multigoal Optimization

Introduction

Independent Criteria

Fuel Cycle Costs

Cost Uncertainties

Assurance of Supply

Safety Considerations

Proliferation Risk

Use of Reference Objectives

Reduction to Linear Programming

Combined Objective Function

Fuzzy Linear Programming

Fuzzy Constraints

A Case Study


7. Generalized Fuel Cycle Models

Introduction

Coupled Uranium-Plutonium Cycles

Model Description

Unit Stages

Material Flow Model

Objective of Minimum Cost

Scenario Study Revisited

Sensitivity Analysis


8. Reactor Strategy Calculations

Introduction

Basic Assumptions

Simulation of Nuclear Power Programs

Simulation Algorithm

Calculation of Total Costs

Cost Adjustments

Economies of Size and Scale

Inflation and Cost Escalation

Supply Preferences

Application of Dynamic Programming

Optimization under Uncertainty

Recursive Procedure

Explicit Certainty Distributions

A Case Study

Fuzzy Dynamic Programming

Deterministic Objective Function

Treatment of Uncertainties


9. Interface with Energy Strategy

Introduction

Global Bounds of Nuclear Capacity

Energy Demand

Share of Nuclear Power

System Integration

An Existing Plant Configuration

Load Duration

Model Equations

Expansion of Generating Systems

Epilogue; The Iterative Planning Process

Appendix; Power Plant and Fuel Cycle

Cost Data Base

Bibliography

Subject Index