Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings

1st Edition - January 1, 1977
Editors: Martin F. Kaplan, Steven Schwartz
Language: English
eBook ISBN:
9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 2 - 6 1 1 0 - 2

Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making… Read more

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Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making processes. The first volume, Human Judgment and Decision Processes (Academic Press, 1975) was concerned with formal and mathematical approaches to the problems of judgment and decision making. The major theoretical orientations (information integration theory, signal detection theory, portfolio theory, and multiattribute-utility measurement) were presented and their rationales discussed. The present volume is concerned with the application of these theories, and the various techniques derived from them, to the problems of decision making in the everyday world. The chapters reflect the many modifications and adjustments that must be made to mathematical rules in order to apply decision theory models in the real world. The tools described serve a broad variety of interests: those of the urban health or social planner, the organizational manager, the researcher, the educator, and, in fact, all of those who must weight evidence to reach decisions. Planner, manager, researcher, teacher, policymaker—all will find assistance in overcoming the commonly encountered roadblocks when one must choose between alternatives in what remains an uncertain world.

Contributors

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

1. Social Judgment Theory: Applications in Policy Formation

A Description of Social Judgment Theory

The Application of Social Judgment Theory

Social Value Judgments

The Separation and Integration of Values and Facts

Social Policy Consultant: A New Role for Psychologists

References

2. Judgment by Juries

The Judgment Model

Trial Evidence

Defendant Characteristics

Juror Dispositions

Effects of Jury Deliberation

Conclusions

References

3. Information Integration in Transportation Decisions

Methodological Approaches

Empirical Studies

Implications for Model Development

Implications for Transportation Researchers

Future Research Needs

References

4. Case-by-Case versus Rule-Generated Procedures for the Allocation of Scarce Resources

Introduction

Rule-Generated and Case-Generated Procedures

Examples of Rule-Generated Procedures

Apologia

References

5. Predicting Performance in Graduate School

Selectors

Criteria

Criterion Analysis

Methods of Selection

What Are the Data?

Where Do We Go from Here?

References

6. Decisions Based on Fallible Clinical Judgment

Introduction

Determining rxy

Effects on Decisions and Outcomes

Discussion

Conclusion

References

7. Behavioral Decision Theory and the Health Delivery System

Health System Decision Making

Behavioral Decision Theory

Applications of Behavioral Decision Theory to the Health Field

Critical Problems and Areas for Further Research

References

8. Combination of Evidence in Perceptual Judgment

Introduction: The Applied Setting

The Paradigm: Combination of Evidence in Perceptual Judgment

Experiments on Computer-Aided Recognition of Complex Sounds

A Decision-Theoretic Approach

Experiments on Computer-Aided Auditory Signal Detection

Experiments on Computer-Aided Visual Search and Detection

Independence: A Theoretical and Practical Issue

Concluding Remarks

References

9. Expectancy Theory, Decision Theory, and Occupational Preference and Choice

Introduction

Expectancy Theory

Decision Theory

Policy Models

Empirical Evidence for the Theories

Implications for Practice

Conclusions

References

10. Business Decision Making: Marketing Implementations

Introduction

Marketing Decisions and Models

Decision Models and Marketing Realities

A Decision-Theoretic Band-Aid for Research and Training

Conclusions

Appendix

References

11. Judgment and Swine: Approaches and Issues in Applied Judgment Analysis

Introduction

Why Livestock Judgment?

Background on Livestock Judges

Similarities and Differences among Judgment Approaches

Judgment Approaches: The Three Basic Questions

What Does the Future Hold?

References

Author Index

Subject Index