Futures for a Declining City - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780121235802, 9781483258171

Futures for a Declining City

1st Edition

Simulations for the Cleveland Area

Authors: Katharine L. Bradbury Anthony Downs Kenneth A. Small
Editors: Edwin S. Mills
eBook ISBN: 9781483258171
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 1st January 1981
Page Count: 262
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Description

Futures for a Declining City: Simulations for the Cleveland Area discusses the processes associated with decrease in urban population or “urban decline” and other measures of urban size or function. This book describes the case study that analyzes what will happen to a declining metropolitan area and its central city if current trends on urban decline continue, and how that outcome might be affected by various policies designed to counteract further loss. This case study focuses on the Cleveland Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) and its central city, Cleveland. The likely future course of urban decline acquired through quantitative estimates and methodologies for comparing policies is also covered in this text. This publication is aimed primarily at economists, urban planners, and political scientists, including those who formulate policies affecting declining urban areas.

Table of Contents


Preface

1. Introduction and Summary

The Nature of This Study

The Key Urban Variables Used

The Specific Policy Packages Analyzed

Findings Concerning the Continuation of Present Trends (The Base Case)

Findings Concerning Alternative Futures for the Cleveland SMSA

Findings Concerning City Revitalization Policies in General

2. Continuation of Present Trends and Policies - The Base Case

Concept

Employment, Population, and Income

Housing and Household Developments

Fiscal Factors

Transportation

3. The Analysis of Future Policy Changes

Introduction

Impacts on Location of Employers

Impacts on Location of Households

Secondary Impacts

Fiscal Impacts

Transportation Impacts

4. A Job Stimulus Package

Concept

Policies

Results

Two Variants: Income Transfers and Jobs Targeted to City Residents

5. A Housing Rehabilitation Package

Concept

Policies

Impacts

Housing Tables

Other Changes from the Base Case

Implications

6. A Transit Improvement Package

Concept

Policies

Methodology

Results

In-City Variant

Conclusions

7. A Fiscal Equalization Package

Concept

Policies and Immediate Fiscal Effects

Location Response to Fiscal Equalization

Additional Fiscal Effects

Summary

8. A Suburban Growth Control Package

Concept

Policies

Impacts

Housing Tables

Other Changes from the Base Case

Implications

9. The Impact of an All-Out Revitalization Strategy and Comparisons among the Policy Packages

The All-Out Revitalization Package and Its Impacts

Comparison and Interpretation of Policy Packages

Sensitivity to Secondary Effects Assumptions

10. Energy Scarcity Scenarios

Adjustment Mechanisms

High-Cost Scenario

Severe Shortage Scenario

Conclusion

11. Recommendations

Appendix A. Computation of Secondary Effects and Transportation Variables

Appendix B. Detailed Projections and Results

Appendix C. Acronyms

Index

Details

No. of pages:
262
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Academic Press 1981
Published:
Imprint:
Academic Press
eBook ISBN:
9781483258171

About the Author

Katharine L. Bradbury

Anthony Downs

Kenneth A. Small

About the Editor

Edwin S. Mills