Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America

1st Edition

What Can We Assume Today?


  • Wolfgang Lutz
    • Print ISBN 9780124604452

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    This is the latest report on what demographers and scientists in related disciplines think and assume today about the future of human reproduction, longevity, and migration. A quick look at some major errors in past population projections demonstrates that the problem was not with the technical instruments of projection but with the inability to anticipate major changes in human behavior and medical progress. Any population projection that is based exclusively on past trends of demographic rates is bound to miss possible future dicontinuities and surprises. If they can be anticipated at all, it can only be done by considering demographic trends in a broader socioeconomic, cultural, and biological context. Here, the three components of population change--fertility, morality, and migration--are addressed. Introductory chapters describe past trends and assumptions for projections currently made in Europe and North America. Also included are discussions and analyses of some possible demographic discontinuities, together with a description of how assumptions on the three components are merged for population projections on national and international levels. This includes a synthesis where alternative views are translated numerically into ten alternative demographic scenarios for East Europe, West Europe, and North America through the year 2050.


    Actuaries, demographers, and statisticians.

    Table of Contents

    The Future of Longevity: T. Valkonen, Assumptions about Mortality Trends in Industrialized Countries: A Survey. J. Duchêne and G. Wunsch, Population Aging and the Limits to Human Life. O. Andersen, Occupational Impacts on Mortality Declines in the Nordic Countries. P. Józan, Changes in Hungarian Mortality and the Role of the National Health Promotion Program. G. Heilig, The Possible Impact of AIDS on Future Mortality. K.G. Manton, New Biotechnologies and the Limits to Life Expectancy. L. Day, Upper-Age Longevity in Low-Mortality Countries: A Dissenting View. The Future of Reproduction: A. Kliger, Survey of Recent Fertility Trends and Assumptions Used for Projections. G. Feeney and W. Lutz, Distributional Analysis of Period Fertility. C. Calhoun and J. De Beer, Birth Expectations and Population Forecasts: The Case of the Netherlands. C.F. Westoff, The Return to Replacement Fertility: A Magnetic Force? N. Keyfitz, Subreplacement Fertility: The Third Level of Explanation. C. Höhn, Policies Relevant to Fertility. A. Vishnevsky, Demographic Revolution and the Future of Fertility: A Systems Approach. The Future of Migratory Flows and Regional Trends: A.B. Wils, Survey of Immigration Trends and Assumptions about Future Migration. T. Espenshade, M. White, and F. Bean, Patterns of Recent Illegal Migration to the United States. G. Steinmann, Immigration as a Remedy for the Birth Dearth: The Case of West Germany. R. Beaujot, Immigration Policy and Sociodemographic Change: The Canadian Case.


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    © 1991
    Academic Press
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    About the editor

    Wolfgang Lutz

    Affiliations and Expertise

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria