Foreword. Preface. Getting things rolling. The Challenge of Risk
Assessment. The nature of exploration. Defining probabilities. Geological uncertainty and oil occurrence. Regional hydrocarbon endowment. Principal premises of this book. Field Size Distributions. Estimating "Q". Oil field populations. Statistics of frequency distributions.
Cumulative probability plots. Caution: future discoveries. Success, Sequence, and Gambler's Ruin. Success ratios and dry hole probabilities. Long-term luck and binomial distribution. Estimating Discovery Size from Prospect Size. Statistical correlations between properties. Estimating volumes from seismic maps. Outcome Probabilities and Success Ratios. Geology and drilling results. Bayesian revision of regional success ratios. Bayesian revision of distributions. Modeling Prospects. Appeal of the simulation approach. Steps in Monte Carlo simulation. Distributions and parameters. Are geologic properties independent? Mapping Properties and Uncertainties. Computer contouring. How contour maps are made. Geostatistics in risk assessment. Discriminating Discoveries and Dry Holes. Combining geological variables. Assessing a new area. Updating assessments. Exploring magyarstan target area. The immature stage. The intermediate stage. The mature stage. The final stage. Forecasting Cash Flow for a Prospect. Financial overview. Discounted net cash flow analysis. Using cashflow. Output from cashflow. Example applications of cashflow. The Worth of Money. A dry hole versus a discovery. RATs, Decision Tables, and Trees. RATs link outcomes with risk. How RATs treat information. Example risk analysis tables. Decision aids for actions. Constructing decision tables. Decision trees. Overview and a look to the future. Bringing It Together.
- No. of pages:
- © 1995
22nd November 1995
- Print ISBN:
- Electronic ISBN:
@from:Michael R. Walls
@qu:...an informative and well-written book...For the geologist, engineer or manager who knows about exploration geology but not about probability, economic analysis, and decision-making techniques, I highly recommend this book.
@from:James A. Murtha
@qu:...I found this book a highly readable, carefully constructed, painstakingly systematic presentation of a viewpoint that may be shared by many...the book is a significant and long overdue addition to the petroleum literature. I would add Computing Risk for Oil Prospects to a short list of books worth owning and rereading. The price tag is justified by the inclusion of the software and the data.
@source:Computers & Geosciences