 |
|
| DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELLING FOR FORECASTING AND POLICY
| |
| | |
|
|
 A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH
Buy online with a credit card in the Elsevier Science & Technology Bookstore:  http://books.elsevier.com/elsevier/?isbn=0444512608
By
P.B. Dixon, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
M.T. Rimmer, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Included in series
Contributions to Economic Analysis, 256
Description
This book describes MONASH, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. In standard applications,
MONASH is run with about 100 industries. Via a suite of add-on programs, results can be generated for 57 sub-national regions, 340 occupations
and numerous types of households.
Our aim in building MONASH was to make a practical contribution to economic decision-making in Australia.
In trying to achieve this objective, we have produced a model with several innovations which will be of interest to economists even if
they have no particular concern for Australian problems. These innovations are largely associated with closures. With different closures
MONASH produces: estimates of changes in technologies and consumer preferences (historical closure); explanations of historical developments
such as the rapid growth since the mid-1980s in Australia's international trade (decomposition closure); forecasts for industries, regions,
occupations and households (forecast closure); and projections of the deviations from forecast paths that would be caused by the implementation
of proposed policies and by other shocks to the economic environment (policy closure).
Our aim in writing the book is to give practical
guidance to potential model builders. We do this by documenting MONASH and describing the strategic decisions we made regarding theoretical
specifications, computing technique, data assembly, model application and result interpretation. Consistent with emphasizing practical
matters, we provide on our web site the complete computer representation of MONASH together with detailed annotations. Thus we make MONASH
available not only to people who want to build their own models drawing on our experience, but also to people who want to use MONASH
as a starting template.
Contents
Preface.
Chapter 1: Aims, Background, Innovations and Presentation.
Introduction.
Background and Innovations.
Presentation,
Computer Code, Reading Strategy and Themes.
Chapter 2: An Illustrative Application of MONASH: the Australian Motor Vehicle Industry
from 1987 to 2016.
Introduction.
Historical and Decomposition Simulations: The Australian Motor Vehicle Industry from 1987
to 1994.
Forecast Simulation: Prospects for the Australian Motor Vehicle Industry, 1998 to 2016.
A Policy Simulation: The Effects
of Reductions in the Tariff on Motor Vehicles.
Policy Implications and Concluding Remarks. Appendix: The Derivation of the Formulas
for Analysing the Difference Between GDP Paths in Alternative Simulations.
Chapter 3: Mathematical Structure, Solution Algorithm
and Computer Implementation: An Overview.
Introduction.
Overview of the Mathematical Structure of MONASH and Introduction
to the Johansen/Euler Solution Method.
The Input-Output Database and the Initial Solution.
Evaluation of the Coefficients in
Linear Systems such as (11.2) and (11.12).
Overview of the GEMPACK Computations for the MONASH Model.
Chapter 4: The Theory
of the MONASH Model.
Introduction.
A Schematic Version of the MONASH Model.
Results of Optimizing Decisions.
Demands
for Exports.
Indirect Taxes.
Definitions of Macro Variable: Interpretation of Divisia Indexes.
Capital-Supply Functions, Rates
of Return and Forward-Looking Expectations.
Computational Strategy for Decomposition Simulations: Halfway Databases.
Equations
for Facilitating Historical and Forecast Simulations.
Wage Adjustment and Welfare Measures in Policy Simulations.
The Public-Sector
Account, the Current Account and the Household Account.
Appendix: CRESH Production Functions and CRETH Transformation Frontiers.
Appendix: The Theory Underlying the Demand Equations for Traditional Exports.
Appendix: The Levels representation of Price and
Quantity Indexes in MONASH.
Chapter 5: Developing the MONASH Closures.
Introduction.
The Decomposition closure
(Third Column of Table 30.1).
Developing the Historical Closure (Fourth Column of Table 30.1).
Developing the Forecast Closure
(Second Column of Table 30.1).
Developing the Policy Closure (First Column of Table 30.1).
MONASH Closures: Concluding Remarks.
Chapter 6: Extensions, Progress and the Future.
Introduction.
Generating Results for Sub-National Regions.
Generating
Results for Detailed Occupations.
Generating Output Results at a Sub-Input-Output Level.
Generating Distributional Results:
The Real Incomes of Many Types of Households.
Quantifying Labour Market Adjustment Costs.
Progress and the Future.
References.
Author Index.
Subject Index.
| Bibliographic details |
Hardbound, 352 pages, publication date: NOV-2002
ISBN-13: 978-0-444-51260-4
ISBN-10: 0-444-51260-8
Imprint: NORTH-HOLLAND
|
| Price and Ordering |
Price:
USD 119
EUR 105
GBP 70
|  |
Books and book related electronic products are priced in US dollars (USD), euro (EUR), and Great Britain Pounds (GBP). USD prices apply to the Americas and Asia Pacific. EUR prices apply in Europe and the Middle East. GBP prices apply to the UK and all other countries.
|
See also information about conditions of sale & ordering procedures, and links to our regional sales offices.
|
081/860
Last update: 26 Sep 2008
|
|
| |
| | |
|
|
| |
