 |
|
| RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND GENERIC PRINCIPLES FOR RISK REDUCTION
| |
| | |
|
|
To order this title, and for more information, click here
By
Michael Todinov, Cranfield University, School of Applied Sciences, Bedfordshire, U.K.
Description
For a long time, conventional reliability analyses have been oriented towards selecting the more reliable system and preoccupied with
maximising the reliability of engineering systems. On the basis of counterexamples however, we demonstrate that selecting the more reliable
system does not necessarily mean selecting the system with the smaller losses from failures! As a result, reliability analyses should
necessarily be risk-based, linked with the losses from failures.
Accordingly, a theoretical framework and models are presented which
form the foundations of the reliability analysis and reliability allocation linked with the losses from failures.
An underlying theme
in the book is the basic principle for a risk-based design: the larger the cost of failure associated with a component, the larger its
minimum necessary reliability level. Even identical components should be designed to different reliability levels if their failures are
associated with different losses.
According to a classical definition, the risk of failure is a product of the probability of failure
and the cost given failure. This risk measure however cannot describe the risk of losses exceeding a maximum acceptable limit. Traditionally
the losses from failures have been 'accounted for' by the average production availability (the ratio of the actual production capacity
and the maximum production capacity). As demonstrated in the book by using a simple counterexample, two systems with the same production
availability can be characterised by very different losses from failures.
As an alternative, a new aggregated risk measure based
on the cumulative distribution of the potential losses has been introduced and the theoretical framework for risk analysis based on the
concept potential losses has also been developed. This new risk measure incorporates the uncertainty associated with the exposure to
losses and the uncertainty in the consequences given the exposure. For repairable systems with complex topology, the distribution of
the potential losses can be revealed by simulating the behaviour of systems during their life-cycle. For this purpose, fast discrete
event-driven simulators are presented capable of tracking the potential losses for systems with complex topology, composed of a large
number of components. The simulators are based on new, very efficient algorithms for system reliability analysis of systems comprising
thousands of components.
An important theme in the book are the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These
have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences
from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding
clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed
in the reliability literature for the first time.
Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter
of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated
component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable.
This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps
in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability
analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk. I hope that the principles, models and algorithms presented in the book
will help to fill these gaps and make the book useful to reliability and risk-analysts, researchers, consultants, students and practising
engineers.
Audience
This book is suitable for all students studying risk analysis, reliability and mechanical engineering. Also for risk analysts, reliability
consultants, lecturers and practising reliability engineers. It is also suitable for engineering students, reliability and risk practitioners.
Contents
Preface
1. Risk-based reliability analysis - a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis
2. Basic reliability concepts
and conventions used for determining the losses from failures
3. Methods for analysis of complex reliability networks
4. Probabilistic
risk assessment and risk management
5. Potential loss from failure for non-repairable components and systems with multiple failure modes
6. Losses from failures for repairable systems with components logically arranged in series
7. Reliability analysis of complex repairable
systems based on constructing the distribution of the potential losses
8. Reliability value analysis for complex systems
9. Reliability
allocation based on minimising the total cost
10. Generic approaches to reducing the likelihood of critical failures
11. Specific principles
for reducing the likelihood of failures
12. Reducing the risk of failure by reducing the negative impact from the variability of design
parameters
13. Generic solutions for reducing the likelihood of overstress and wearout failures
14. Reducing the risk of failure by removing
latent faults, and avoiding common cause failures
15. Consequence analysis and generic principles for reducing the consequences from
failures
16. Locally initiated failures and risk reduction
Appendix A
References
| Bibliographic details |
Hardbound, 400 pages, publication date: NOV-2006
ISBN-13: 978-0-08-044728-5
ISBN-10: 0-08-044728-7
Imprint: ELSEVIER
|
| Price and Ordering |
Price:
GBP 99.99
USD 165
EUR 117.95
|  |
Books and book related electronic products are priced in US dollars (USD), euro (EUR), and Great Britain Pounds (GBP). USD prices apply to the Americas and Asia Pacific. EUR prices apply in Europe and the Middle East. GBP prices apply to the UK and all other countries.
|
See also information about conditions of sale & ordering procedures, and links to our regional sales offices.
|
034/312
Last update: 5 Sep 2009
|
|
| |
| | |
|
|
| |
Home | Elsevier Sites | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | Feedback | Site Map | A Reed Elsevier Company