The Global Forest Products Model

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) book provides a complete introduction to this widely applied computer model. The GFPM is a dynamic economic equilibrium model that is used to predict production, consumption, trade, and prices of 14 major forest products in 180 interacting countries. The book thoroughly documents the methods, data, and computer software of the model, and demonstrates the model's usefulness in addressing international economic and environmental issues.

The Global Forest Products Model is written by an international multi-disciplinary team and is ideal for graduate students and professionals in forestry, natural resource economics, and related fields. It explains trends in world forest industries in the simplest terms by explaining the economic theory underlying the model. It describes six applications of the GFPM, three of which were commissioned by the Food Agriculture of the United Nations, the USDA Forest Service, and New Zealand Research.

The authors show how to apply the model to real issues such as the effects of the Asian economic crisis on the forest sector, the effects of eliminating tariffs on international trade and production, and the international effects of national environmental policies. They provide complete explanations on how to use the GFPM software, prepare the data, make the forecasts, and summarize the results with tables and graphs.

• Comprehensive, and rigorous description of the world forestry sector
• Written by an international multi-disciplinary team
• Thorough description of data and methods
• In-depth applications to modern economic and policy issues
• Detailed documentation of the computer software
• Suitable for students, researchers, and decision makers

Graduate students and faculty in forestry departments and in related industries, as well as economic and resource advisors

PART 1 INTRODUCTION

Ch 1 Background and Objectives 1.1 Issues addressed by the GFPM
1.2 Previous and related models 1.3 A brief history of the GFPM
1.4 Objectives and outline

Ch 2 Overview of the Global Forest Products 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Production 2.3 International trade
2.4 Forest product price trends
2.5 Economic and demographic prospects 2.6 Summary and conclusion

PART 2 GFPM MODEL CONSTRUCTION

Ch 3 GFPM Structure and Formulation 3.1 Overview of the GFPM
3.2 Spatial global equilibrium 3.3 Market dynamics 3.4 Linear approximation of demand and supply 3.5 Implementation of trade inertia constraints 3.6 Welfare analysis

Ch 4 Model Calibration and Validation 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Countries and Products 4.3 Base-year Data 4.4 Parameter Estimation 4.5 Model Validation

PART 3 GFPM APPLICATIONS

Ch 5 The Base Scenario 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Model data, parameters, and assumptions
5.3 Base scenario projection from 1997 to 2010
5.4 Summary and discussion

Ch 6 Effects of the Asian Economic Crisis 6.1 Introduction
6.2 GFPM application
6.3 Summary and conclusion

Ch 7 Effects of Tariff Liberalization 7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Uruguay round of GATT and the ATL proposal
7.3 Previous studies 7.4 GFPM simulations
7.5 Summary and conclusion

Ch. 8 Impact of United States Paper recycling Policies 8.1 Introduction
8.2 Wastepaper recycling in the United States 8.3 Previous studies 8.4 GFPM analysis 8.5 International effects
8.6 Summary and conclusion

Ch 9 Effects of Regional trade agreements on New Zealand 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Trade agreements 9.3 GFPM analysis 9.4 GFPM results 9.5 Summary and conclusion

Ch 10 Impacts of United States Timber Harvest Restrictions 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Previous studies 10.3 Objectives 10.4 Forest policies affecting timber harvest in the United States 10.5 Modified GFPM model 10.6 Effects of further U.S. harvest restrictions on the Pacific Rim forest sector 10.7 Sensitivity to trade regime 10.8 Summary and conclusion

PART 4 GFPM SOFTWARE

Ch 11 Using the GFPM Software 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Installation and configuration 11.3 GFPM base year input 11.4 Exogenous change data 11.5 Running GFPM 11.6 Examples of GFPM output 11.7 Welfare analysis with the GFPM 11.8 Trouble shooting GFPM errors

Ch 12 GFPM Software design and implementation 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Overview of GFPM software structure 12.3 Control programs and program execution 12.4 Data Preparation 12.5 Data processing and problem solving 12.6 Output retrieval

CH 13 Summary and Conclusion 13.1 Summary of Results 13.2 Evaluation and prospects 13.3 Conclusion

References