The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S.

The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S.

Entering the 21st Century: The Technical Report

1st Edition - January 1, 1980

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  • Author: Gerald O. Barney
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483189208

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Description

The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. presents an interagency report of the 70-year record of Government concern relating to issues in population, resources, and environment. It discusses the interrelatedness of these three factors. It addresses all three topics from a relatively long-term, global perspective and emphasizes interconnections and feedback Some of the topics covered in the book are the projections of the population, climate, technology, and the food and agriculture. The analysis of these projections is covered. The tools used in the analysis are discussed. The text defines the meaning of mesarovic-pestel world model, carrying capacity, stability, diversity, and ecological buffering. A comparison of the resulting projections is presented. A chapter of the volume is devoted to the embassy reports on forestry and agricultural trends. Another section of the book focuses on the Latin American world model. The book will provide useful information to economists, political analysts, students and researchers.

Table of Contents


  • Part I The Projections

    1 Introduction to the Projections

    The Study Plan

    The Projections

    2 Population Projections

    Bureau of the Census Projections

    Community and Family Study Center Projections

    Migration

    3 GNP Projections

    4 Climate Projections

    Climate in the Year 2000

    The Climate Scenarios

    Climate Scenarios for the Global 2000 Study

    5 Technology Projections

    Population

    Gross National Product

    Climate

    Food

    Fisheries

    Forestry

    Water

    Energy

    Fuel Minerals

    Nonfuel Minerals

    Environment

    6 Food and Agriculture Projections

    Caveats

    Model and Methodology

    General Results

    Alternatives I-III: Results and Conclusions

    Resources and Inputs

    Costs and Investments

    Environmental Implications

    7 Fisheries Projections

    Marine Fisheries Resources

    Fresh Water Fisheries Resources

    Living Marine Resources: Description

    Living Marine Resources: Potential

    Marine Pollution

    Marine Aquaculture

    Economic Demand

    8 Forestry Projections

    Forest Inventories

    Forest Products

    The Forest-Man Relationship: Two Systems

    Forests and Forestry in the Industralized Nations

    Forests and Forestry in the Less Developed Countries

    The Special Problem of Tropical Moist Forests

    Global Linkages and the Year 2000 Scenarios

    References

    9 Water Projections

    Properties of Water Resources

    The Supply of Water

    The Demand for Water

    Future Water Resources

    Conclusions

    10 Energy Projections

    Basic Assumptions

    Midrange Energy Forecasts, 1985-90

    Long-Range Energy Projections

    Future Oil Potential

    The Role of Future Technologies

    Energy Impacts

    Conclusions

    References

    11 Fuel Minerals Projections

    Resource Terminology

    Petroleum

    Natural Gas

    Coal

    Nuclear Fuels

    Hydraulic Resources

    Geothermal Energy

    Oil Shale

    Tar Sands

    Solar Energy

    Conclusions

    References

    12 Nonfuel Minerals Projections

    Demand Projections

    Supply Projections

    Price Projections

    Decision Points in the Mineral-Industry System

    Nonfuel Minerals and the North-South Dialogue

    Conclusions

    References

    13 Environment ProjectionsR

    The Population Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Population and the Environment in Traditional Cultures

    Population and the Environment in Industrialized Cultures

    Population Distribution and the Environment

    The Population Projections and Human Health

    Conclusions

    The GNP Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Pollution and Waste Generation

    Resource Consumption

    The Use of Chemicals in the Development of Societies

    Conclusions

    Climate Changes and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    The Climate Scenarios

    Environmental Consequences of the Climate Scenarios

    Impact of the Other Projections on Climate

    Conclusions

    The Technology Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Conclusions

    The Food and Agriculture Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Food and the Human Environment

    Deterioration of Soils

    Ecological Effects of Fertilizers and Pesticides

    Crop Vulnerability: Genetic Considerations

    Food and Nonrenewable Fossil Fuels

    Conclusions

    The Projections and the Marine Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Effects of Coastal Development

    Coastal Pollution

    Overexploitation of Living Marine Resources

    Open Oceans

    Conclusions

    The Forestry Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Deforestation in the LDCs

    Increased Intensity of Forest Management

    Global-Scale Environmental Impacts

    A Projection of Species Extinctions

    Conclusions

    The Water Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Environmental Developments Affecting Water Supply

    Impacts of Hydraulic Works

    Water Pollution

    Water-Related Diseases

    Extinction of Freshwater Species

    Conclusion

    The Energy Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Commercial Energy in Industrial Societies

    Noncommercial fuels

    Conclusion

    The Nonfuel Minerals Projections and the Environment

    The Projections

    Introduction

    Direct Environmental Effects of Mining on Land

    Indirect Effects of Mining on Land

    Effects of Mining the Seabed

    Conclusions

    Closing the Loops

    Introduction

    Assumptions, Discrepancies, and Feedback

    Summing Up

    References

    Part II Analysis of Projection Tools: The Government's Global Model

    14 The Government's Global Model: The Present Foundations

    The "Government's Global Model"

    Description of the Present Foundation

    Analysis of the Present Foundation

    Interpreting the Projections

    Strengthening the Present Foundation

    Summary Descriptions of the 11 Elements

    15 Population

    Census Projections

    Chicago Projections

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    References

    16 Gross National Product

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    17 Climate

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles and Components

    Basic Procedures

    Climate Scenarios

    Validation

    Documentation

    18 Food and Agriculture

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    19 Renewable resources

    Water

    Fisheries

    Forestry

    Environment

    20 Energy

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    Documentation and Validation

    21 Fuel Minerals

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    Documentation and Validation

    22 Nonfuel Minerals

    Key Analytic Methodology

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Basic Procedures

    23 Technology

    Key Analytic Methodologies

    Basic Principles

    Basic Components

    Documentation and Validation

    Part III Analysis of Projection Tools: Other Global Models

    24 Introduction

    Carrying Capacity

    Stability and Diversity

    Ecological Buffering

    25 Worlds 2 and 3

    The Models and Their Limitations

    Method

    Structure

    Conclusions

    Documentation

    References

    26 Mesarovic-Pestel World Model

    Method

    Relevance

    Structure

    Conclusions

    Testing and Validation

    Documentation

    References

    27 Moira: Model of International Relations in Agriculture

    Relevance

    Structure

    Testing and Validation

    Assumptions and Conclusions

    Documentation

    References

    28 The Latin American World Model

    Method

    Relevance

    Structure

    Testing

    Conclusions

    Documentation

    References

    29 U.N. World Model

    Method

    Relevance

    Structure

    Testing

    Conclusions

    Documentation

    References

    Part IV Comparison of Results

    30 Introduction

    31 The Comparisons

    Comparison of Integrated Global Models

    Structure

    The Government's Global Model vs. The World 3 Model

    The Government's Global Model vs. The World Integrated Model

    Conclusions

    Appendixes

    A Lessons from the Past

    B Advisory Views: A Critique of the Study

    C Embassy Reports on Forestry and Agricultural Trends

    D Metric Conversion Factors

    Index


Product details

  • No. of pages: 802
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Pergamon 1980
  • Published: January 1, 1980
  • Imprint: Pergamon
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483189208

About the Author

Gerald O. Barney

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