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The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S.
Entering the 21st Century: The Technical Report
- 1st Edition - January 1, 1980
- Author: Gerald O. Barney
- Language: English
- eBook ISBN:9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 1 - 8 9 2 0 - 8
The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. presents an interagency report of the 70-year record of Government concern relating to issues in population, resources, and… Read more
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Request a sales quoteThe Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. presents an interagency report of the 70-year record of Government concern relating to issues in population, resources, and environment. It discusses the interrelatedness of these three factors. It addresses all three topics from a relatively long-term, global perspective and emphasizes interconnections and feedback Some of the topics covered in the book are the projections of the population, climate, technology, and the food and agriculture. The analysis of these projections is covered. The tools used in the analysis are discussed. The text defines the meaning of mesarovic-pestel world model, carrying capacity, stability, diversity, and ecological buffering. A comparison of the resulting projections is presented. A chapter of the volume is devoted to the embassy reports on forestry and agricultural trends. Another section of the book focuses on the Latin American world model. The book will provide useful information to economists, political analysts, students and researchers.
Part I The Projections
1 Introduction to the Projections
The Study Plan
The Projections
2 Population Projections
Bureau of the Census Projections
Community and Family Study Center Projections
Migration
3 GNP Projections
4 Climate Projections
Climate in the Year 2000
The Climate Scenarios
Climate Scenarios for the Global 2000 Study
5 Technology Projections
Population
Gross National Product
Climate
Food
Fisheries
Forestry
Water
Energy
Fuel Minerals
Nonfuel Minerals
Environment
6 Food and Agriculture Projections
Caveats
Model and Methodology
General Results
Alternatives I-III: Results and Conclusions
Resources and Inputs
Costs and Investments
Environmental Implications
7 Fisheries Projections
Marine Fisheries Resources
Fresh Water Fisheries Resources
Living Marine Resources: Description
Living Marine Resources: Potential
Marine Pollution
Marine Aquaculture
Economic Demand
8 Forestry Projections
Forest Inventories
Forest Products
The Forest-Man Relationship: Two Systems
Forests and Forestry in the Industralized Nations
Forests and Forestry in the Less Developed Countries
The Special Problem of Tropical Moist Forests
Global Linkages and the Year 2000 Scenarios
References
9 Water Projections
Properties of Water Resources
The Supply of Water
The Demand for Water
Future Water Resources
Conclusions
10 Energy Projections
Basic Assumptions
Midrange Energy Forecasts, 1985-90
Long-Range Energy Projections
Future Oil Potential
The Role of Future Technologies
Energy Impacts
Conclusions
References
11 Fuel Minerals Projections
Resource Terminology
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear Fuels
Hydraulic Resources
Geothermal Energy
Oil Shale
Tar Sands
Solar Energy
Conclusions
References
12 Nonfuel Minerals Projections
Demand Projections
Supply Projections
Price Projections
Decision Points in the Mineral-Industry System
Nonfuel Minerals and the North-South Dialogue
Conclusions
References
13 Environment ProjectionsR
The Population Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Population and the Environment in Traditional Cultures
Population and the Environment in Industrialized Cultures
Population Distribution and the Environment
The Population Projections and Human Health
Conclusions
The GNP Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Pollution and Waste Generation
Resource Consumption
The Use of Chemicals in the Development of Societies
Conclusions
Climate Changes and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
The Climate Scenarios
Environmental Consequences of the Climate Scenarios
Impact of the Other Projections on Climate
Conclusions
The Technology Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Conclusions
The Food and Agriculture Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Food and the Human Environment
Deterioration of Soils
Ecological Effects of Fertilizers and Pesticides
Crop Vulnerability: Genetic Considerations
Food and Nonrenewable Fossil Fuels
Conclusions
The Projections and the Marine Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Effects of Coastal Development
Coastal Pollution
Overexploitation of Living Marine Resources
Open Oceans
Conclusions
The Forestry Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Deforestation in the LDCs
Increased Intensity of Forest Management
Global-Scale Environmental Impacts
A Projection of Species Extinctions
Conclusions
The Water Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Environmental Developments Affecting Water Supply
Impacts of Hydraulic Works
Water Pollution
Water-Related Diseases
Extinction of Freshwater Species
Conclusion
The Energy Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Commercial Energy in Industrial Societies
Noncommercial fuels
Conclusion
The Nonfuel Minerals Projections and the Environment
The Projections
Introduction
Direct Environmental Effects of Mining on Land
Indirect Effects of Mining on Land
Effects of Mining the Seabed
Conclusions
Closing the Loops
Introduction
Assumptions, Discrepancies, and Feedback
Summing Up
References
Part II Analysis of Projection Tools: The Government's Global Model
14 The Government's Global Model: The Present Foundations
The "Government's Global Model"
Description of the Present Foundation
Analysis of the Present Foundation
Interpreting the Projections
Strengthening the Present Foundation
Summary Descriptions of the 11 Elements
15 Population
Census Projections
Chicago Projections
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
References
16 Gross National Product
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
17 Climate
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles and Components
Basic Procedures
Climate Scenarios
Validation
Documentation
18 Food and Agriculture
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
19 Renewable resources
Water
Fisheries
Forestry
Environment
20 Energy
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
Documentation and Validation
21 Fuel Minerals
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
Documentation and Validation
22 Nonfuel Minerals
Key Analytic Methodology
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Basic Procedures
23 Technology
Key Analytic Methodologies
Basic Principles
Basic Components
Documentation and Validation
Part III Analysis of Projection Tools: Other Global Models
24 Introduction
Carrying Capacity
Stability and Diversity
Ecological Buffering
25 Worlds 2 and 3
The Models and Their Limitations
Method
Structure
Conclusions
Documentation
References
26 Mesarovic-Pestel World Model
Method
Relevance
Structure
Conclusions
Testing and Validation
Documentation
References
27 Moira: Model of International Relations in Agriculture
Relevance
Structure
Testing and Validation
Assumptions and Conclusions
Documentation
References
28 The Latin American World Model
Method
Relevance
Structure
Testing
Conclusions
Documentation
References
29 U.N. World Model
Method
Relevance
Structure
Testing
Conclusions
Documentation
References
Part IV Comparison of Results
30 Introduction
31 The Comparisons
Comparison of Integrated Global Models
Structure
The Government's Global Model vs. The World 3 Model
The Government's Global Model vs. The World Integrated Model
Conclusions
Appendixes
A Lessons from the Past
B Advisory Views: A Critique of the Study
C Embassy Reports on Forestry and Agricultural Trends
D Metric Conversion Factors
Index
- No. of pages: 802
- Language: English
- Edition: 1
- Published: January 1, 1980
- Imprint: Pergamon
- eBook ISBN: 9781483189208
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