The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780080246185, 9781483189208

The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S.

1st Edition

Entering the 21st Century: The Technical Report

Authors: Gerald O. Barney
eBook ISBN: 9781483189208
Imprint: Pergamon
Published Date: 1st January 1980
Page Count: 802
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Description

The Global 2000 Report to the President of the U.S. presents an interagency report of the 70-year record of Government concern relating to issues in population, resources, and environment. It discusses the interrelatedness of these three factors. It addresses all three topics from a relatively long-term, global perspective and emphasizes interconnections and feedback
Some of the topics covered in the book are the projections of the population, climate, technology, and the food and agriculture. The analysis of these projections is covered. The tools used in the analysis are discussed. The text defines the meaning of mesarovic-pestel world model, carrying capacity, stability, diversity, and ecological buffering. A comparison of the resulting projections is presented. A chapter of the volume is devoted to the embassy reports on forestry and agricultural trends. Another section of the book focuses on the Latin American world model. The book will provide useful information to economists, political analysts, students and researchers.

Table of Contents


Part I The Projections

1 Introduction to the Projections

The Study Plan

The Projections

2 Population Projections

Bureau of the Census Projections

Community and Family Study Center Projections

Migration

3 GNP Projections

4 Climate Projections

Climate in the Year 2000

The Climate Scenarios

Climate Scenarios for the Global 2000 Study

5 Technology Projections

Population

Gross National Product

Climate

Food

Fisheries

Forestry

Water

Energy

Fuel Minerals

Nonfuel Minerals

Environment

6 Food and Agriculture Projections

Caveats

Model and Methodology

General Results

Alternatives I-III: Results and Conclusions

Resources and Inputs

Costs and Investments

Environmental Implications

7 Fisheries Projections

Marine Fisheries Resources

Fresh Water Fisheries Resources

Living Marine Resources: Description

Living Marine Resources: Potential

Marine Pollution

Marine Aquaculture

Economic Demand

8 Forestry Projections

Forest Inventories

Forest Products

The Forest-Man Relationship: Two Systems

Forests and Forestry in the Industralized Nations

Forests and Forestry in the Less Developed Countries

The Special Problem of Tropical Moist Forests

Global Linkages and the Year 2000 Scenarios

References

9 Water Projections

Properties of Water Resources

The Supply of Water

The Demand for Water

Future Water Resources

Conclusions

10 Energy Projections

Basic Assumptions

Midrange Energy Forecasts, 1985-90

Long-Range Energy Projections

Future Oil Potential

The Role of Future Technologies

Energy Impacts

Conclusions

References

11 Fuel Minerals Projections

Resource Terminology

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear Fuels

Hydraulic Resources

Geothermal Energy

Oil Shale

Tar Sands

Solar Energy

Conclusions

References

12 Nonfuel Minerals Projections

Demand Projections

Supply Projections

Price Projections

Decision Points in the Mineral-Industry System

Nonfuel Minerals and the North-South Dialogue

Conclusions

References

13 Environment ProjectionsR

The Population Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Population and the Environment in Traditional Cultures

Population and the Environment in Industrialized Cultures

Population Distribution and the Environment

The Population Projections and Human Health

Conclusions

The GNP Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Pollution and Waste Generation

Resource Consumption

The Use of Chemicals in the Development of Societies

Conclusions

Climate Changes and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

The Climate Scenarios

Environmental Consequences of the Climate Scenarios

Impact of the Other Projections on Climate

Conclusions

The Technology Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Conclusions

The Food and Agriculture Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Food and the Human Environment

Deterioration of Soils

Ecological Effects of Fertilizers and Pesticides

Crop Vulnerability: Genetic Considerations

Food and Nonrenewable Fossil Fuels

Conclusions

The Projections and the Marine Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Effects of Coastal Development

Coastal Pollution

Overexploitation of Living Marine Resources

Open Oceans

Conclusions

The Forestry Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Deforestation in the LDCs

Increased Intensity of Forest Management

Global-Scale Environmental Impacts

A Projection of Species Extinctions

Conclusions

The Water Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Environmental Developments Affecting Water Supply

Impacts of Hydraulic Works

Water Pollution

Water-Related Diseases

Extinction of Freshwater Species

Conclusion

The Energy Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Commercial Energy in Industrial Societies

Noncommercial fuels

Conclusion

The Nonfuel Minerals Projections and the Environment

The Projections

Introduction

Direct Environmental Effects of Mining on Land

Indirect Effects of Mining on Land

Effects of Mining the Seabed

Conclusions

Closing the Loops

Introduction

Assumptions, Discrepancies, and Feedback

Summing Up

References

Part II Analysis of Projection Tools: The Government's Global Model

14 The Government's Global Model: The Present Foundations

The "Government's Global Model"

Description of the Present Foundation

Analysis of the Present Foundation

Interpreting the Projections

Strengthening the Present Foundation

Summary Descriptions of the 11 Elements

15 Population

Census Projections

Chicago Projections

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

References

16 Gross National Product

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

17 Climate

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles and Components

Basic Procedures

Climate Scenarios

Validation

Documentation

18 Food and Agriculture

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

19 Renewable resources

Water

Fisheries

Forestry

Environment

20 Energy

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

Documentation and Validation

21 Fuel Minerals

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

Documentation and Validation

22 Nonfuel Minerals

Key Analytic Methodology

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Basic Procedures

23 Technology

Key Analytic Methodologies

Basic Principles

Basic Components

Documentation and Validation

Part III Analysis of Projection Tools: Other Global Models

24 Introduction

Carrying Capacity

Stability and Diversity

Ecological Buffering

25 Worlds 2 and 3

The Models and Their Limitations

Method

Structure

Conclusions

Documentation

References

26 Mesarovic-Pestel World Model

Method

Relevance

Structure

Conclusions

Testing and Validation

Documentation

References

27 Moira: Model of International Relations in Agriculture

Relevance

Structure

Testing and Validation

Assumptions and Conclusions

Documentation

References

28 The Latin American World Model

Method

Relevance

Structure

Testing

Conclusions

Documentation

References

29 U.N. World Model

Method

Relevance

Structure

Testing

Conclusions

Documentation

References

Part IV Comparison of Results

30 Introduction

31 The Comparisons

Comparison of Integrated Global Models

Structure

The Government's Global Model vs. The World 3 Model

The Government's Global Model vs. The World Integrated Model

Conclusions

Appendixes

A Lessons from the Past

B Advisory Views: A Critique of the Study

C Embassy Reports on Forestry and Agricultural Trends

D Metric Conversion Factors

Index


Details

No. of pages:
802
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Pergamon 1980
Published:
Imprint:
Pergamon
eBook ISBN:
9781483189208

About the Author

Gerald O. Barney

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