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The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780122424502, 9781483266060

The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth

1st Edition

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Editors: Thomas J. Espenshade William J. Serow
eBook ISBN: 9781483266060
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 28th January 1978
Page Count: 308
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The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth is a collection of papers dealing with the economic implications of a sustained low fertility rate on an industrialized country. The book reviews the situation prevailing in the United States including the country's demographic trends and prospects. The text also presents the uncertainties, the unknown, and the known economic consequences of low fertility as analyzed from previous generations. One paper examines the lessons that can be learned from a zero population growth in Europe by comparing theory and reality. This paper expounds on the social and economic effects while transitioning to a zero growth rate. Other papers examine the inter-relationships between unemployment, inflation, and economic policy. These papers also give recommendations to cut unemployment levels without causing inflation in the process. Other papers discuss social security and other needs of an aging population. One paper examines rising concerns over population movements in times of slower U.S. population growth; the author cites data reflecting migration trends and population declines in several metropolitan areas. The text can prove useful for sociologists, social workers, public health services officers, and public economists.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors



List of Tables

List of Illustrations

1 The Demographic Dimensions of Slowing Population Growth in the United States

Trends and Prospects in U.S. Population Growth

Changes in Age Composition

Spatial Redistribution of the Population


2 The Economics of Declining Population Growth: An Assessment of the Current Literature

Demographic Aspects

Theoretical Developments

Empirical Studies

Policy Implications and Additional Suggestions for Further Research

3 Zero Population Growth Now: The Lessons from Europe

Zero Population Growth: Theory and Reality

Social and Economic Implications during the Transition to Zero Population Growth

Future Implications of Zero Population Growth or Progressive Decline

4 The Fiscal Policy Dilemma: Cyclical Swings Dominated by Supply-Side Constraints

Amendments to the Secular Stagnation and Kuznets Cycle Models

A Simplified Model of Supply-Side Imbalances

Estimating the Nonaccelerating-Inflation Rate of Unemployment

The Capital Stock Bottleneck

The Potential Impact of the Fertility Twist and Slowing Population Growth

The Role of Fiscal Policy

5 Is Secular Stagnation Just around the Corner? A Survey of the Influences of Slowing Population Growth upon Investment Demand

Introduction, Summary, and Outline of Conclusions

Population and Investment Demand in the Short Run

Population and Investment Demand in the Long Run

Slower Population Growth and Investment Demand during Trend Transitions: The Long-Swing Hypothesis Revisited

Emerging Characteristics of the New Economic-Demographic Era

6 The Effects of Slowing Population Growth on Long-Run Economic Growth in the United States during the Next Half Century

Determinants of Economic Growth


Conclusions and Qualifications

7 Social Security and Aging Populations

Slowing Population Growth and the Social Security System

Slowing Population Growth and Pay-As-You-Go

Alternative Financing Approaches

The Case for Reform and the Objectives of Social Security

8 The Impact of Demographic Change on the Distribution of Earned Income and the AFDC Program: 1975-1985


Critical Features of DYNASIM

Key Assumptions and Mechanics of the Simulations

Simulation Results

9 Emerging Public Concerns over U.S. Population Movements in an Era of Slowing Growth


The Contrasting Growth Trends in Population and Households

New Migration Trends

Population Decline in Individual Metropolitan Areas

Emerging Concerns

10 Policy Implications and Future Research Needs


Summary Findings

Policy Implications

Further Research Needs




No. of pages:
© Academic Press 1978
28th January 1978
Academic Press
eBook ISBN:

About the Editors

Thomas J. Espenshade

William J. Serow

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