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The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth is a collection of papers dealing with the economic implications of a sustained low fertility rate on an industrialized country. The book reviews the situation prevailing in the United States including the country's demographic trends and prospects. The text also presents the uncertainties, the unknown, and the known economic consequences of low fertility as analyzed from previous generations. One paper examines the lessons that can be learned from a zero population growth in Europe by comparing theory and reality. This paper expounds on the social and economic effects while transitioning to a zero growth rate. Other papers examine the inter-relationships between unemployment, inflation, and economic policy. These papers also give recommendations to cut unemployment levels without causing inflation in the process. Other papers discuss social security and other needs of an aging population. One paper examines rising concerns over population movements in times of slower U.S. population growth; the author cites data reflecting migration trends and population declines in several metropolitan areas. The text can prove useful for sociologists, social workers, public health services officers, and public economists.
List of Contributors
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
1 The Demographic Dimensions of Slowing Population Growth in the United States
Trends and Prospects in U.S. Population Growth
Changes in Age Composition
Spatial Redistribution of the Population
2 The Economics of Declining Population Growth: An Assessment of the Current Literature
Policy Implications and Additional Suggestions for Further Research
3 Zero Population Growth Now: The Lessons from Europe
Zero Population Growth: Theory and Reality
Social and Economic Implications during the Transition to Zero Population Growth
Future Implications of Zero Population Growth or Progressive Decline
4 The Fiscal Policy Dilemma: Cyclical Swings Dominated by Supply-Side Constraints
Amendments to the Secular Stagnation and Kuznets Cycle Models
A Simplified Model of Supply-Side Imbalances
Estimating the Nonaccelerating-Inflation Rate of Unemployment
The Capital Stock Bottleneck
The Potential Impact of the Fertility Twist and Slowing Population Growth
The Role of Fiscal Policy
5 Is Secular Stagnation Just around the Corner? A Survey of the Influences of Slowing Population Growth upon Investment Demand
Introduction, Summary, and Outline of Conclusions
Population and Investment Demand in the Short Run
Population and Investment Demand in the Long Run
Slower Population Growth and Investment Demand during Trend Transitions: The Long-Swing Hypothesis Revisited
Emerging Characteristics of the New Economic-Demographic Era
6 The Effects of Slowing Population Growth on Long-Run Economic Growth in the United States during the Next Half Century
Determinants of Economic Growth
Conclusions and Qualifications
7 Social Security and Aging Populations
Slowing Population Growth and the Social Security System
Slowing Population Growth and Pay-As-You-Go
Alternative Financing Approaches
The Case for Reform and the Objectives of Social Security
8 The Impact of Demographic Change on the Distribution of Earned Income and the AFDC Program: 1975-1985
Critical Features of DYNASIM
Key Assumptions and Mechanics of the Simulations
9 Emerging Public Concerns over U.S. Population Movements in an Era of Slowing Growth
The Contrasting Growth Trends in Population and Households
New Migration Trends
Population Decline in Individual Metropolitan Areas
10 Policy Implications and Future Research Needs
Further Research Needs
- No. of pages:
- © Academic Press 1978
- 28th January 1978
- Academic Press
- eBook ISBN:
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