Sources and Methods of Historical Demography

Sources and Methods of Historical Demography

Studies in Social Discontinuity

1st Edition - January 28, 1982

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  • Editors: Charles Tilly, Edward Shorter
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483220659

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Sources and Methods of Historical Demography covers the fundamental sources, methods, and approaches to explanatory modeling for describing, analyzing, and understanding demographic features of past societies. The book discusses the intellectual ancestry of historical demographic research, beginning in the 17th century; as well as the logic of basic techniques for reconstructing and analyzing information from fundamental source materials. The text also describes the full range of disciplines that have made major contributions to historical demography, and examples of empirical research. The book concludes by arguing the case for conducting historical demographic research with a broad, interdisciplinary ideal in mind. Historians and sociologists will find the book invaluable.

Table of Contents

  • Preface


    I. Introduction

    1. A Genealogy of Historical Demography

    The Methodologists

    Political Arithmetic

    The Theorists


    II. Fundamental Source Materials

    2. Sources of Prehistoric Demography

    Censusing Prehistoric Populations from Material Remains

    The Study of Prehistoric Vital Rates: Paleodemography

    Mortality Patterns Among Prehistoric Populations

    Population Growth in Prehistory

    Ethnographic Evidence of Population Control in Prehistory


    3. Parish Registers and Civil Registration Records

    The Development of Parish Registers

    The Contents of Parish Register Records on Individuals

    Historical Conditions Affecting the Quality of Parish Register Information

    Assessing the Quality of Small Sets of Vital Registration Records

    Assessing the Quality Of Large Sets of Vital Event Records

    Estimating and Correcting for the Underregistration of Vital Events

    Vital Registration Records and Historical Demography


    4. Enumerations and Censuses

    Enumerations in the Past

    Hearths and Households in Early Enumerations

    The Use of "One-Time" Enumerations

    An Example of a Regular Series of Early Enumeration Data: The Stati D'anime

    Assessing the Accuracy of Enumeration Data

    The Quality of Regular Series of Modern Censuses

    The Definition and Boundaries of Census Units

    Relationships Among Individuals Within Households

    Occupational Data from Census Records and the Analysis of Social Structure

    Census Data and the Study of Fertility


    5. Genealogies and Population Registers

    Types of Genealogies

    Some General Problems of Genealogical Sources

    Assessing the Quality of Genealogical Sources

    Dealing With Partial or Incomplete Data on Individuals

    The Significance of the Demographic Experience of Genealogical Populations

    Population Registers


    6. Organizational and Institutional Records

    Marriage Contracts


    The Historical Demography of Institutional Populations


    III. Methods of Population Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical Sources

    7. Record Linkage and the Study of Historical Communities as Relational Systems 167

    Important Concepts for the Systems Theorist

    Regulation in Historical Demographic Systems

    Network Analysis


    8. Family Reconstitution and Household Structure Analysis

    The Logic of Automatic Family Reconstitution

    Calculating Demographic Rates from Family Reconstitution Data

    The Structure of Coresident Domestic Groups

    Dynamic Studies of Household Structure and Family Life Cycles


    9. Sampling in Historical Research

    Simple Random, Systematic, and Cluster Sampling

    Stratified and Multistage Sampling

    Sample Size


    10. Lexis Diagrams and Formal Demographic Indexes

    Lexis Diagrams

    Cohort and Period Indexes: Methodological Problems

    The Probability of First Marriages

    Fertility Rates in Marriage Cohorts

    Probabilities of Dying: The Life Table

    Interpreting Cohort Tables: Methodological Problems

    Migration and Multiregional Analysis

    Computer Programs


    11. Factor Analysis

    An Overview

    Stages in Factor Analyzing Historical Demographic Data

    Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Confirmatory Factor Analysis

    Comparison of Factor Structures Over Time

    Indeterminacy in Factor Analytical Solutions


    12. Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster Analysis

    Creating Proximity Measures

    From Nonmetric to Metric Information

    The Dimensionality of mds Spaces

    Cluster Patterns in Multidimensional Scaling Spaces


    13. Regression and Time Series Modeling

    Regression Analysis: Preliminary Considerations

    Common Problems Encountered In Regression Analysis

    Regression with Nominal Variables

    Time Series: Preliminary Considerations

    Autocorrelation Analysis


    Randomness in Time Series

    Moving Averages

    The Univariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series

    The Multivariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series

    Intervention Hypothesis Testing


    14. Log-Linear Modeling

    The Organization of Categorical Data

    The Odds Ratio

    Log-Linear Models

    Illustrative Example


    15. Computer Simulation of Historical Processes

    Developing a Model to Simulate

    Positive and Negative Feedback Structures

    Choosing a Simulation Language

    Causal Models in Dynamo Format

    Simulating Ramdomness in Causal Models


    IV. Causal Model Building and Hypothesis Testing: Major Themes

    16. Theory Construction And The Nature of Scientific Explanation

    The Nature of Scientific Hypotheses

    Explanation Sketches

    Models of Scientific Explanation

    Explanation Closure

    Explanation in Historical Research

    Causal Inferences from Historical Statistics

    Nonexperimental Causal Inference and Structural Models

    Problems in Drawing Valid Causal Inferences in Historical Demography

    Problems of Statistical Conclusion Validity

    Problems of Internal Validity

    The Problem of Construct Validity

    The Problem of External Validity

    Research Designs with Historical Data

    Quasi-Experimental Research Designs With Nonequivalent Groups


    17. Population Genetics Models

    The Historical Perspective of Population Genetics

    Genetic Structure

    Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium

    Kinship and Identity Coefficients

    Genetic Drift in Small Populations


    Research Examples


    18. Biometrie Models

    A General Analytical Framework

    Birth Intervals and the Duration of the Nonsusceptible Period

    Natural Fertility

    The Relationships Between Changes in Fertility and Mortality


    19. Evolutionary-Ecological Models

    Evolutionary Theory

    Sociobiological Theory

    Ecological Theory

    The Concept of Stability

    Randomness in Ecological Settings

    Synthesizing Evolutionary and Ecological Theories

    Research Examples


    20. Socioeconomic Models

    A Framework for Demographic Model Building Within Historical

    Socioeconomic Contexts

    The Cultural Materialist Reformulation of Marx

    Structured Social Inequality

    Historical Demographic Perspectives on Social Mobility and Inequality

    Socioeconomic Models with Demographic Data


    V. Conclusion

    21. Historical Demography and "Total History"

    Recommended Readings

    Author Index

    Subject Index

Product details

  • No. of pages: 526
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Academic Press 1982
  • Published: January 28, 1982
  • Imprint: Academic Press
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483220659

About the Editors

Charles Tilly

Affiliations and Expertise

University of Michigan, U.S.A.

Edward Shorter

Affiliations and Expertise

University of Toronto, Canada

About the Authors

J. Dennis Willigan

Katherine A. Lynch

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