Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780128040713, 9780128040935

Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters

1st Edition

Editors: Gero Michel
eBook ISBN: 9780128040935
Paperback ISBN: 9780128040713
Imprint: Elsevier
Published Date: 30th August 2017
Page Count: 338
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Description

Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment.

Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk.

Key Features

  • Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina
  • Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting
  • Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process
  • Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies

Readership

Earth and Atmospheric scientists - especially geoscientists, meteorologists, geophysicists, hydrologists, seismologists, volcanologists with an involvement in modeling risk from natural hazards for the insurance-reinsurance industry. Risk modelers, insurance and reinsurance professionals, structural and civil engineers, economists, mathematicians-statisticians

Table of Contents

SECTION I: Catastrophe Models, General Concepts and Methods
1. Quantifying Model Uncertainty and Risk
Nilesh Shome, Mohsen Rahnama, Steve Jewson, and Paul Wilson
2. What Makes a Catastrophe Model Robust
Jay Guin
3. Towards a more Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modelling
David Stephenson, Alasdair Hunter, Ben Youngman, and Ian Cook
4. Empirical fragility and vulnerability assessment: not just a regression
Tiziana Rossett and Ioanna Ioannou

SECTION II: Model Creation, Specific Perils and Data
5. The use of historic loss data for insurance and total loss modelling
James Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel, and Andreas Schaefer
6. Indirect Loss Potential Index for Natural disasters for National and sub-national analysis
James Daniell, Bijan Khazai, Friedemann Wenzel
7. Probability gain from seismicity-based earthquake models
Kristy Tiampo, Robert Shcherbakov, and Paul Kovacs
8. Big data challenges and hazards modelling
Kristy Tiampo, Seth McGinnis, Yelena Kropivnitskaya, Jinhui Qin, and Michael Bauer
9. Progress towards hyper-resolution models of global flood hazard
Paul Bates, Jeff Neal, Chris Sampson, Andy Smith, and Mark Trigg

SECTION III: Model Insurance Use-Cases
10. Insurance Pricing and Portfolio Management using Catastrophe Models
Helena Bickley and Gero Michel
11. Portfolio Optimization Using Catastrophe Model Results, a Use Case from the Insurance Industry
Augustin Yiptong and Gero Michel

SECTION IV:  Model Risk, Resilience and New Concepts
12. Parsimonious risk assessment and the role of transparent diverse models
Patrick McSharry 
13. Creating a Probabilistic Catastrophe Model with the Characteristic Event Methodology
Karen Clark 
14. From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe Modelling
Slobodan Simonovic
15. Beyond ‘model risk’: a practice perspective on modelling in insurance
Andreas Tsanakas  and Laure Cabantous

Details

No. of pages:
338
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Elsevier 2018
Published:
Imprint:
Elsevier
eBook ISBN:
9780128040935
Paperback ISBN:
9780128040713

About the Editor

Gero Michel

Gero Michel is the Managing Director of Chaucer Underwriting A/S in Copenhagen, where he is responsible for Chaucer’s European portfolio and capital market initiative. In addition Dr. Michel serves as an adjunct professor at Western University, London Ontario, Canada where he lectures on Insurance and Reinsurance as well as creation of catastrophe models. Gero Michel is co-founder of the Chaucer Risk and Research Center that links innovation and science to underwriting. Before this Gero was Senior Vice President, CRO and Head of Risk Analytics at Montpelier Re. Prior to joining the Montpelier Group, Dr. Michel was Managing Director of one of the largest joint venture between science and the financial industry, the Willis Research network, along with heading up model development at Willis in London. Prior to this, Dr. Michel lead international catastrophe underwriting at Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., in Bermuda; managed the windstorm and flood model development at Risk Management Solutions, Inc. and was a senior actuarial analyst at Hannover Re. Dr. Michel has a PhD and masters in geo-science, and has a senior level education from Harvard Business School. He has been an invited lecturer at numerous insurance and science events and has published various risk and insurance articles. He has over 30 years of experience in risk management and risk modeling.

Affiliations and Expertise

Managing Director, Chaucer Underwriting A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark