Predicting Future Oceans

Predicting Future Oceans

Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change

1st Edition - June 3, 2019

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  • Editors: William Cheung, Yoshitaka Ota, Andres Cisneros-Montemayor
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128179451
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128179468

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Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network. This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy. This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation.

Key Features

  • Provides a synthesis of our knowledge on the future state of the oceans
  • Includes recommendations on how to move forwards
  • Highlights key social aspects linked to ocean ecosystems, including health, equity and sovereignty


Scientists interested in marine ecology and governance, resource management, climate change and ocean-related fields. Secondary: Government practitioners in marine and coastal management, policy makers of local and regional government, and program officers of non-governmental and intergovernmental organisations engaged with marine conservation

Table of Contents

  • Section 1: Predicting future oceans
    1. Rethinking oceans as coupled human-natural systems to achieve sustainability
    Yoshitaka Ota and William Cheung

    Section 2: Changing ocean systems
    2. Synthesis: Changing ocean systems
    Jorge Sarmiento and Charles Stock
    3. Drivers of fisheries production in complex social-ecological systems
    Chris McOwen, Tom Spencer and Mike Bithell
    4. Changing Seasonality of the Sea: Past, Present, and Future
    Rebecca G. Asch
    5. Extreme climate events in the oceans
    Thomas Lukas Frölicher
    6. Pathways of methylmercury accumulation in a changing ocean
    Colin Thackray and Elsie Sunderland
    7. Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity
    Tyler Eddy
    8. Coastal upwelling and climate change
    Ryan Ross Rykaczewski

    Section 3: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity
    9. Sythesis: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity
    Didier Gascuel and William Cheung
    10. Current and future biogeography of marine exploited groups under climate change
    Gabriel Reygondeau
    11. The role of cyclical oscillations in species distributions shifts under climate change
    Sarah Roberts
    12. Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: From the past to the future
    Hubert du Pontavice
    13. Jellyfishes in a changing ocean
    Natasha Henschke
    14. Understanding fisheries using time series data: importance and opportunities emerging from models of bottom up forcing
    Fernando González Taboada
    15. The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program and civil society
    Daniel Pauly and William Cheung
    16. Life history of marine fishes and their implications for the future oceans
    Colleen M. Petrik

    Section 4: Changing fisheries and seafood supply
    17. Synthesis: Changing fisheries and seafood supply
    Laurie Chan, William Cheung and Elsie Sunderland
    18. Projecting fishing effort dynamics and the economics of fishing in the 21st century under climate change
    Vicky Wing Yee Lam
    19. Prospect of mariculture under climate change
    Muhammed A. Oyinlola
    20. Tourist seafood consumption's role in tourism adaptation in Pacific Island Countries for coastal food security under climate change
    Colette Wabnitz
    21. Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management
    Kisei Tanaka
    22. The future landscape of the global seafood market
    Oai Li Chen
    23. Climate change adaptations and spatial fisheries management
    Rebecca Selden and Malin L. Pinsky
    24. Climate Change, Contaminants, and Country Food: Collaborating with Communities to Promote Food Security in the Arctic
    Tiff-Annie Kenny

    Section 5: Changing social world of the ocean
    25. Synthesis: Changing social world of the oceans
    Yoshitaka Ota and Larry Crowder
    26. The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood
    Lydia Teh
    27. The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing communities: Moving beyond adaptive capacity to community response
    Larry Crowder
    28. Coastal Indigenous Peoples in global ocean governance
    Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor and Yoshitaka Ota
    29. The role of corporate social responsibility for ocean sustainability
    Wilf Swartz
    30. Ocean policy on the water – incorporating fishermen’s perspectives
    Julia Grace Mason
    31. Traditional ecological knowledge in displacement and migration
    Marjo Kristiina Vierros and Yoshitaka Ota
    32. Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want?
    Gerald Singh

    Section 6: Governance and well-being in changing oceans
    33. Synthesis: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability
    Henrik Österblom
    34. A Blue Economy: Equitable, Sustainable, and Viable Development in the World’s Oceans
    Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor
    35. Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery conflicts
    Jessica Spijkers
    36. The future of mangrove fishing communities
    Rachel Seary
    37. The last commons: (Re)constructing an ocean future
    Katherine Seto and Brooke Campbell
    38. New actors, new possibilities, new challenges - Non-state actor participation in global fisheries management
    Matilda Tove Petersson
    39. Climate change vulnerability and ocean governance
    Robert Blasiak

    Section 7: Ocean governance beyond boundaries
    40. Synthesis: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability with Erik
    Erik Molenaar
    41. Conserving the great blue "beyond." Incorporating the dynamic and connected nature of the open ocean in the biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) negotiations
    Daniel C. Dunn
    42. Legitimacy as a resource for effective international marine management
    Lisa Maria Dellmuth
    43. Improving fisheries governance in a fragmented and decentralized world
    Solène Alizée Guggisberg
    44. The Trouble with Tunas: International Fisheries Science and Policy in an Uncertain Future
    Andre Boustany
    45. The road to implementing an ecosystem-based approach to high seas fisheries management
    Guillermo Ortuno Crespo Ortuno Crespo
    46. Ocean Pollution in an Era of Changing Oceans and Climate Change: Towards Ocean Conservation Solutions
    Juan Jose Alava
    47. Beyond prediction: Radical Ocean Futures– A science fiction prototyping approach to imagining our future oceans
    Andrew Sean Merrie

    Section 8: Conclusion
    48. Future pathways for the oceans considering climate change and social equity
    Yoshitaka Ota and William Cheung

Product details

  • No. of pages: 582
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Elsevier 2019
  • Published: June 3, 2019
  • Imprint: Elsevier
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128179451
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128179468

About the Editors

William Cheung

Dr. William Cheung is Associate Professor in the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries at the University of British Columbia, and Director (Science) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. He is an internationally-recognized expert in the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries, and is a lead author for the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and coordinating lead author for the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in the Changing Climate. Dr. Cheung has published over 100 peer-reviewed articles, and is the 2017 laureate of the Prix’d Excellence Award of the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas for his contributions to marine sciences.

Affiliations and Expertise

Associate Professor, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Yoshitaka Ota

Dr. Yoshitaka Ota is Research Assistant Professor in the School of Marine and Environmental Affairs at the University of Washington, and Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. Yoshitaka Ota has a background in social anthropology at the University College London. Dr. Ota has conducted ethnographic research on various coastal communities, including Palau, UK, Indonesia and Japan, studying the socialization and cultural meanings associated with fishing practices. For the last ten years, he has been engaged in policy research involving coastal indigenous communities, marine spatial planning and human security. Dr. Ota also is the Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, an international initiative comprising an interdisciplinary team of 20 institutes. His core research interest is to understand how to strengthen social equity in ocean governance while we face global environmental changes. His unit consists of a team of cross-disciplinary scholars.

Affiliations and Expertise

Assistant Professor, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, USA

Andres Cisneros-Montemayor

Dr. Andrés Cisneros-Montemayor is a marine resource economist specializing in complex social-ecological systems, particularly in developing regions. This includes estimating the social and economic benefits of ecotourism and artisanal fisheries, anticipating ecological and social impacts and challenges, and finding best strategies to achieve equitable and inclusive sustainable development.

Affiliations and Expertise

Research Associate at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Program Manager of the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program

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