Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy

Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy

1st Edition - April 6, 2017

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  • Authors: Robert Kissell, James Poserina
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128052938
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780128051634

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Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy provides the sports community—students, professionals, and casual sports fans—with the essential mathematics and statistics required to objectively analyze sports teams, evaluate player performance, and predict game outcomes. These techniques can also be applied to fantasy sports competitions.   Readers will learn how to: Accurately rank sports teams Compute winning probability Calculate expected victory margin Determine the set of factors that are most predictive of team and player performance Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy also illustrates modeling techniques that can be used to decode and demystify the mysterious computer ranking schemes that are often employed by post-season tournament selection committees in college and professional sports. These methods offer readers a verifiable and unbiased approach to evaluate and rank teams, and the proper statistical procedures to test and evaluate the accuracy of different models.   Optimal Sports Math, Statistics, and Fantasy delivers a proven best-in-class quantitative modeling framework with numerous applications throughout the sports world.

Key Features

  • Statistical approaches to predict winning team, probabilities, and victory margin
  • Procedures to evaluate the accuracy of different models
  • Detailed analysis of how mathematics and statistics are used in a variety of different sports
  • Advanced mathematical applications that can be applied to fantasy sports, player evaluation, salary negotiation, team selection, and Hall of Fame determination


sports fans in the US and abroad, professional and college coaches, general managers, scouts, and students seeking a career in the sports industry

Table of Contents

  • Chapter 1. How They Play the Game

    • Abstract
    • Bibliography

    Chapter 2. Regression Models

    • Abstract
    • 2.1 Introduction
    • 2.2 Mathematical Models
    • 2.3 Linear Regression
    • 2.4 Regression Metrics
    • 2.5 Log-Regression Model
    • 2.6 Nonlinear Regression Model
    • 2.7 Conclusions
    • References

    Chapter 3. Probability Models

    • Abstract
    • 3.1 Introduction
    • 3.2 Data Statistics
    • 3.3 Forecasting Models
    • 3.4 Probability Models
    • 3.5 Logit Model Regression Models
    • 3.6 Conclusions
    • References

    Chapter 4. Advanced Math and Statistics

    • Abstract
    • 4.1 Introduction
    • 4.2 Probability and Statistics
    • 4.3 Sampling Techniques
    • 4.4 Random Sampling
    • 4.5 Sampling With Replacement
    • 4.6 Sampling Without Replacement
    • 4.7 Bootstrapping Techniques
    • 4.8 Jackknife Sampling Techniques
    • 4.9 Monte Carlo Simulation
    • 4.10 Conclusion
    • Endnote
    • References

    Chapter 5. Sports Prediction Models

    • Abstract
    • 5.1 Introduction
    • 5.2 Game Scores Model
    • 5.3 Team Statistics Model
    • 5.4 Logistic Probability Model
    • 5.5 Team Ratings Model
    • 5.6 Logit Spread Model
    • 5.7 Logit Points Model
    • 5.8 Estimating Parameters
    • 5.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 6. Football - NFL

    • Abstract
    • 6.1 Game Scores Model
    • 6.2 Team Statistics Model
    • 6.3 Logistic Probability Model
    • 6.4 Team Ratings Model
    • 6.5 Logit Spread Model
    • 6.6 Logit Points Model
    • 6.7 Example
    • 6.8 Out-Sample Results
    • 6.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 7. Basketball - NBA

    • Abstract
    • 7.1 Game Scores Model
    • 7.2 Team Statistics Model
    • 7.3 Logistic Probability Model
    • 7.4 Team Ratings Model
    • 7.5 Logit Spread Model
    • 7.6 Logit Points Model
    • 7.7 Example
    • 7.8 Out-Sample Results
    • 7.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 8. Hockey - NHL

    • Abstract
    • 8.1 Game Scores Model
    • 8.2 Team Statistics Model
    • 8.3 Logistic Probability Model
    • 8.4 Team Ratings Model
    • 8.5 Logit Spread Model
    • 8.6 Logit Points Model
    • 8.7 Example
    • 8.8 Out-Sample Results
    • 8.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 9. Soccer - MLS

    • Abstract
    • 9.1 Game Scores Model
    • 9.2 Team Statistics Model
    • 9.3 Logistic Probability Model
    • 9.4 Team Ratings Model
    • 9.5 Logit Spread Model
    • 9.6 Logit Points Model
    • 9.7 Example
    • 9.8 Out-Sample Results
    • 9.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 10. Baseball - MLB

    • Abstract
    • 10.1 Game Scores Model
    • 10.2 Team Statistics Model
    • 10.3 Logistic Probability Model
    • 10.4 Team Ratings Model
    • 10.5 Logit Spread Model
    • 10.6 Logit Points Model
    • 10.7 Example
    • 10.8 Out-Sample Results
    • 10.9 Conclusion

    Chapter 11. Statistics in Baseball

    • Abstract
    • 11.1 Run Creation
    • 11.2 Win Probability Added
    • 11.3 Conclusion

    Chapter 12. Fantasy Sports Models

    • Abstract
    • 12.1 Introduction
    • 12.2 Data Sets
    • 12.3 Fantasy Sports Model
    • 12.4 Regression Results
    • 12.5 Model Results
    • 12.6 Conclusion

    Chapter 13. Advanced Modeling Techniques

    • Abstract
    • 13.1 Introduction
    • 13.2 Principal Component Analysis
    • 13.3 Neural Network
    • 13.4 Adaptive Regression Analysis
    • 13.5 Conclusion

Product details

  • No. of pages: 352
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Academic Press 2017
  • Published: April 6, 2017
  • Imprint: Academic Press
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128052938
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780128051634

About the Authors

Robert Kissell

Robert Kissell, Ph.D., is President of Kissell Research Group, a global financial and economic consulting firm specializing in quantitative modeling, statistical analysis, and algorithmic trading. He is also a professor at Molloy College in the School of Business and an adjunct professor at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University. He has held several senior leadership positions with prominent bulge bracket investment banks including UBS Securities where he was Executive Director of Execution Strategies and Portfolio Analysis, and at JP Morgan where he was Executive Director and Head of Quantitative Trading Strategies. He was previously at Citigroup/Smith Barney where he was Vice President of Quantitative Research, and at Instinet where he was Director of Trading Research. He began his career as an Economic Consultant at R.J. Rudden Associates specializing in energy, pricing, risk, and optimization. Dr. Kissell has written several books and published dozens of journal articles on Algorithmic Trading, Risk, and Finance. He is a coauthor of the CFA Level III reading titled “Trade Strategy and Execution,” CFA Institute 2019.”

Affiliations and Expertise

President, Kissell Research Group; Professor, Molloy College; Adjunct Professor, Fordham University

James Poserina

Jim Poserina is a web application developer for the School of Arts and Sciences at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. He has been a web and database developer for over 15 years, having previously worked and consulted for companies including AT&T, Samsung Electronics, Barnes & Noble, IRA Financial Group, and First Investors. He is also a partner in Doctrino Systems, where in addition to his web and database development he is a systems administrator.

Mr. Poserina has been a member of the Society for American Baseball Research since 2000 and has been published in the Baseball Research Journal. He covered Major League Baseball, NFL and NCAA football, and NCAA basketball for the STATS LLC reporter network. In addition to the more traditional baseball play-by-play information, the live baseball reports included more granular data such as broken bats, catcher blocks, first baseman scoops, and over a dozen distinct codes for balls and strikes.

Mr. Poserina took second place at the 2016 HIQORA High IQ World Championships in San Diego, California, finishing ahead of over 2,000 participants from more than 60 countries. He is a member of American Mensa, where he has served as a judge at the annual Mind Games competition that awards the coveted Mensa Select seal to the best new tabletop games.

Mr. Poserina has a B.A. in history and political science from Rutgers University. While studying there he called Scarlet Knight football, basketball, and baseball games for campus radio station WRLC.

Affiliations and Expertise

Jim Poserina is a web application developer for the School of Arts and Sciences at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. He has been a member of the Society for American Baseball Research for over 15 years.

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