Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780128032756, 9780128032763

Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises

1st Edition

How to Predict Discontinuous Decisions

Authors: Ionut Purica
eBook ISBN: 9780128032763
Paperback ISBN: 9780128032756
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 7th April 2015
Page Count: 124
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Description

When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good.

Key Features

  • Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations
  • Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity
  • Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events

Readership

Upper-division undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals working in all areas of finance

Table of Contents

  • Dedication
  • Brief Description of the Book
  • Acknowledgments
  • Chapter 1. Introduction
    • References
  • Chapter 2. Evolution of Financial Crises
    • 2.1 Definitions and Common Patterns of the Crisis
    • 2.2 The Crisis Cycle Bird’s-Eye Description
    • 2.3 Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems Approaches to Describing Crisis Cycles
    • 2.4 Evolutionary Economics
    • References
  • Chapter 3. The Sociocultural Niche
    • 3.1 Creativity
    • 3.2 Evidences and Memes
    • 3.3 Creativity as a Memes Mutation
    • 3.4 Logistic Penetration of Memes
    • References
  • Chapter 4. Occupy the Financial Niche—Saturation and Crisis
    • 4.1 Introduction
    • 4.2 Social Reality and Collective Behavior
    • 4.3 Dynamics of Memes
    • 4.4 Description of the Model
    • 4.5 Criteria for Financial Development Strategies
    • References
  • Chapter 5. Monitoring Issues and Measuring the Change
    • 5.1 Predict the Phase Change
    • 5.2 Crossing the Limit in the Decision Space
    • 5.3 Cases of Decision Trajectory Evolution
    • 5.4 Freedom Versus Deregulation—Historical Considerations
    • 5.5 Procedure for Predicting Crisis Cycles
    • References
  • Chapter 6. Nonlinear Effects in Market Penetration—Deterministic Chaos
    • 6.1 Quadratic Phase Diagrams in Economics
    • 6.2 Penetration of a Financial Instrument
    • References
  • Chapter 7. Final Thoughts on Crises and Adaptability
    • 7.1 Do We Want to Eliminate the Crises?
    • References
  • Appendix 1. Evolution of Models in Relation to Crisis Cycles
    • References
  • Appendix 2. Logistic Map
    • References
  • Bibliography

Details

No. of pages:
124
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Academic Press 2015
Published:
Imprint:
Academic Press
eBook ISBN:
9780128032763
Paperback ISBN:
9780128032756

About the Author

Ionut Purica

Prof.Ionut Purica is a corresponding member of the Academy of Romanian Scientists (AOSR), and a senior researcher in econophysics. He had worked in the World Bank, ENEA Rome and ICTP Trieste, Italy and RENEL Romania developing nonlinear models for energy systems development and economic decisions. He holds two PhDs: one in energy systems and the other in economics.

Affiliations and Expertise

National Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania

Reviews

"Ionut Purica explores the perplexing problem of financial crises dynamics from a non-traditional economics approach. The progressive methodology and applications make the book ideal for students, researchers, and market practitioners." --Fotis Papailias, Queen's University Management School, Belfast

"Dr. Purica provides a unique perspective on the life-cycle of financial crises.  By equating financial instruments to 'memes' he provides new insight into the evolutionary dynamics of financial innovation.  His illustration using CDO’s and the recent financial crisis is one specific application of this approach that I think many will find interesting." --Michael B. Imerman, Lehigh University