Modeling of Transport Demand

Modeling of Transport Demand

Analyzing, Calculating, and Forecasting Transport Demand

1st Edition - October 23, 2018

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  • Authors: V.A Profillidis, G.N. Botzoris
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128115138
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128115145

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Description

Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications.

Key Features

  • Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand
  • Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding
  • Covers analysis for all modes of transportation
  • Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results

Readership

Researchers at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing econometric models with choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transportation applications

Table of Contents

  • 1. Transport demand and factors affecting it
    2. Evolution and trends of transport demand
    3. Methods of modeling transport demand
    4. Executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing and survey methods
    5. Statistical methods for transport demand modeling
    6. Trend projection and time series methods
    7. Econometric, gravity and the 4–step methods
    8. Artificial intelligence – Neural network methods
    9. Fuzzy methods

Product details

  • No. of pages: 500
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Elsevier 2018
  • Published: October 23, 2018
  • Imprint: Elsevier
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128115138
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128115145

About the Authors

V.A Profillidis

V.A. Profillidis is Professor for the Section of Transportation at Democritus University of Thrace, Greece. He holds the Diploma in Civil Engineering from the University of Thessaloniki, MSc and PhD in Transportation from the Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées in Paris, and the Diploma in Law from the University of Thessaloniki. He has acted as a consultant to many transport authorities. He has taken part in many international conferences as well as meetings of the European Union, the World Bank, and the European Conference of Ministers of Transport. He has carried out a number of transport studies in modeling and forecasting of demand, transport economics and feasibility methods, traffic analysis and demand, intelligent transport systems, sustainable mobility, transport and the environment, organization and management, airport, railway, metro, and port master plans. He has written to this day 9 books and over 190 scientific papers that have been published in scientific journals, including Elsevier’s Journal of Air Transport Management, as well as conference proceedings.

Affiliations and Expertise

Professor, Section of Transportation, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece

G.N. Botzoris

G.N. Botzoris is Assistant Professor for the Section of Transportation at Democritus University of Thrace, Greece. He holds the Diploma in Civil Engineering, MSc in Business Administration, and PhD in Transportation. His research interests include travel behavior analysis and modeling, analysis and forecast of transport demand, transport economics and feasibility methods, public transport planning and policy, traffic analysis and management, intelligent transport systems, sustainable mobility, and effects of transport activities on the environment. He is coauthor of one book and of five chapters in edited volumes. He has written to this day over 140 scientific papers that have been published in scientific journals, including Elsevier’s Journal of Air Transport Management, as well as conference proceedings.

Affiliations and Expertise

Assistant Professor, Section of Transportation, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece

Ratings and Reviews

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  • Tom V. Thu Jul 04 2019

    A welcome addition to a small field

    Profillidis and Botzoris have written a welcome addition to what is only a handful of key textbooks on a topic that remains largely misunderstood - to develop trustworthy, transparent, and ultimately useful data driven, mathematical tools to support decision making in a highly politicized transport field that also seems to be in greater flux than we have experienced in the last few decades. This is not a book about using transport models for policy development, or as input to cost benefit analysis. Other books cover that well, for example Ortuzar and Willumsen’s 2011 book “Modelling Transport”. The main goal of this book is to support commercial companies and government entities when planning future operational requirements; paraphrasing the back cover: “to help readers solve transport demand forecasting problems they face on a daily basis, choosing the most suitable solution for all types of applications”. Given the pedigree of the authors, I expect the book to originate from course lectures, and I can imagine the book being used as a textbook in undergraduate or postgraduate courses elsewhere. I would gladly employ students that have been taught and master the contents. I can also imagine the book on the bookshelf of researchers, professionals and practitioners in government organizations and in industry. The first two chapters provide essential background to the way in which robust transport demand models should be developed, the drivers of demand and the way in which to incorporate these. In a second edition, I hope that the authors will debate how some of the conventional relationships, for example between GDP growth and the demand for travel, may be breaking, and how to estimate robust models in such circumstances. Chapter 3 (methods of modelling transport demand) should be compulsory reading for all entrants to the profession for whom this would provide an excellent foundation for what is often experienced in everyday work life as just the following of best practice guidelines and the application of commercial off-the-shelf software. Given that there is such a strong focus in applied transport demand modelling on quantitative methods, the sections in Chapter 4 on Delphi methods and scenario writing are relevant and interesting - particularly in the present climate of uncertainty when quantification may well be impossible and often unrealistic. I am not sure of section 4.4 on survey methods, and better books exist, such as the still excellent 1995 Richardson, Ampt and Meyburg book “Survey methods for transport planning”, and the more recent 2013 book by Zmud, Lee Gosselin, Munizaga and Carrasco “Transport Survey Methods: Best Practice for Decision Making”. The real strength of the book is in sections 5, 6 and 7. I have not come across such an in-depth description in a single location of how to conduct well statistical, time series and econometric modelling and forecasting studies. Chapter 5 provides an easy-to-access statistical introduction, but also introduces important concepts such as multicollinearity, residuals, heteroskedacity and suitable tests for these – often ignored in practice. The practical value of trend projection and time series methods, as discussed in Chapter 6, may feel somewhat dubious given that various past trends in transport demand appear to be breaking. Still, there will be applications that rely on projections and the examples should ensure that these are carried out in line with good practice. The real value of chapter 7 is in the development and description of examples of transport demand models based on assumed causality rather than correlation – topical and sometimes contentious. My greatest criticism is the lack of discussion about equilibrium modelling, standard in the majority of practical urban applications. I like chapters 8 and 9 a lot. These describe Artificial Intelligence, Neural Networks and Fuzzy Methods. The authors manage to engage the reader with what are conceptually complex methods, and give interesting and easy-to-understand examples how these new methods can be used to improve practice. In conclusion, Profillidis and Botzoris have done an excellent job, creating an accessible text that should be viewed as additional to rather than replacing its better-known predecessors. The modelling of transport demand is a vast area to cover, and much of the existing literature has focused on urban, policy-supporting approaches. Those with a need to also consider the need for application in the transport industry now have access to a single source volume; available as paperback and as e-book.