Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780444507440, 9780080559957

Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets

1st Edition

Editors: Donald Hausch W.T. Ziemba
eBook ISBN: 9780080559957
Hardcover ISBN: 9780444507440
Imprint: North Holland
Published Date: 2nd September 2008
Page Count: 560
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Table of Contents

  • Dedication
  • List of Contributors
  • Preface
  • Introduction to the Series
  • Part I: Industry Studies
    • Chapter 1: Pari-Mutuel Horse Race Wagering—Competition from Within and Outside the Industry
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 COMPETITION FROM CASINO GAMING
      • 3 COMPETITION FROM STATE LOTTERIES
      • 4 COMPETITION FROM PROFESSIONAL SPORTS
      • 5 COMPETITION FROM LIVE RACING
      • 6 COMPETITION FROM SIMULCAST WAGERING
      • 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
    • Chapter 2: Modeling Money Bet on Horse Races in Hong Kong
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 VARIABLES EXAMINED
      • 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
      • 4 CONCLUSION
      • APPENDIX 31 Independent Variables Examined (Excluding Quadratic Terms)
  • Part II: Utility, Probability, and Pace Estimation
    • Chapter 3: Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 SOME STYLIZED FACTS
      • 3 EXPECTED UTILITY
      • 4 DISTORTIONS OF PROBABILITIES
      • 5 REFERENCE POINTS AND ASYMMETRIC PROBABILITY WEIGHTS
      • 6 HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES
      • 7 EXOTIC BETS
      • 8 CONCLUDING REMARKS
    • Chapter 4: Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-Entry Competitions by a Simple Method
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THEORETICAL RESULTS OF THE LIMITING CASES
      • 3 A SIMPLE APPROXIMATION
      • 4 CONCLUSION
      • APPENDIX: Proof of Theorem 1
    • Chapter 5: Modeling Distance Preference and Pace Character in Thoroughbred Turf Racing
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgment
      • 1 BACKGROUND
      • 2 CASE STUDY 1: SHA TIN (HONG KONG, SAR, PRC)
      • 3 CASE STUDY 2: RANDWICK (SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA)
      • 4 QUALITATIVE QUESTIONS
      • 5 DISCUSSION
  • Part III: Favorite-Longshot Bias in the Win Market
    • Chapter 6: The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 NOTATION
      • 3 MISESTIMATION OF PROBABILITIES
      • 4 MARKET POWER BY INFORMED BETTORS
      • 5 PREFERENCE FOR RISK
      • 6 HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS
      • 7 MARKET POWER BY UNINFORMED BOOKMAKER
      • 8 LIMITED ARBITRAGE
      • 9 SIMULTANEOUS BETTING BY INSIDERS
      • 10 TIMING OF BETS
    • Chapter 7: Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions?
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 PREFERENCES—EXPECTED UTILITY MODELS WITH LINEAR PROBABILITIES
      • 3 PERCEPTIONS—THE WEIGHTING OF TRUE PROBABILITIES
      • 4 PERCEPTIONS–INFORMATIONAL EFFECTS
      • 5 DEFINITION OF MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COMBINATORIC BETS
      • 6 USING COMBINATORIC MARKETS TO TEST THE MODELS
      • 7 CONCLUSION
      • APPENDIX A Pricing of Combinatoric Bets Using Conditional Independence
      • APPENDIX B Data
    • Chapter 8: Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 BIASES FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS LITERATURE
      • 3 WHAT CAUSES THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS AT THE RACETRACK?
      • 4 IS IT RISK OR INFORMATION?
      • 5 CAN THE MODEL EXPLAIN THE BIASES IN OTHER MARKETS?
      • 6 CONCLUSION
    • Chapter 9: The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 METHODOLOGY
      • 3 RESULTS
      • 4 CONCLUSIONS
  • Part IV: Weak Market Efficiency
    • Chapter 10: Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 EXTENT OF GAMBLING IN THE U.S
      • 3 RACETRACK BETTING MARKETS
      • 4 THE FOOTBALL BETTING MARKET
      • 5 THE BASKETBALL BETTING MARKET
      • 6 LOTTERIES
    • Chapter 11: Point Spread and Odds Betting: Baseball, Basketball, and American Football
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 EFFICIENCY OF ODDS BETTING MARKETS
      • 3 EFFICIENCY OF POINT SPREAD BETTING MARKETS
      • 4 RELATIONSHIP OF POINT SPREAD AND ODDS BETTING
      • 5 THE NORMAL MODEL AND MID-EVENT WAGERING
      • 6 SUMMARY
    • Chapter 12: Comparing Efficiency of the Over/Under-Bets on NFL and NBA Games
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE SPORTS BETTING MARKET: SETTING POINT SPREADS AND OVER/UNDERS
      • 3 NFL AND NBA BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY
      • 4 CONCLUSION
    • Chapter 13: Arbitrage and Risk Arbitrage in Team Jai Alai
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE ARBITRAGE
      • 3 RISK ARBITRAGES
      • 4 FINAL REMARKS
  • Part V: Semi-Strong Form Efficiency
    • Chapter 14: Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY IN HORSE RACE BETTING MARKETS: SINGLE VARIABLE MODELS
      • 3 SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY IN HORSE RACE BETTING MARKETS: MULTIPLE VARIABLE MODELS
      • 4 SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY IN HORSE RACE BETTING MARKETS: CONCLUSION
    • Chapter 15: The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE RACETRACK AS A SEQUENCE OF MARKETS
      • 3 THE DOSAGE INDEX AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES
      • 4 DATA ACQUISITION
      • 5 APPLICATION OF BREEDING INFORMATION AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES TO REFINE ESTIMATED WIN PROBABILITIES FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY
      • 6 THE KELLY BETTING MODEL
      • 7 THE KENTUCKY DERBY, 1981–2006
      • 8 THE PREAKNESS STAKES, 1946–2006
      • 9 THE BELMONT STAKES, 1946–2006
      • 10 CONCLUSIONS
    • Chapter 16: Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: The Role of Professional Tipsters
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE MODEL
      • 3 DATA
      • 4 RESULTS
      • 5 CONCLUSION
      • Appendix Proof of Equation (5)
  • Part VI: Prediction Markets
    • Chapter 17: Index Betting for Sports and Stock Indices
      • Abstract
      • 1 BACKGROUND
      • 2 HOW INDEX BETTING OPERATES
      • 3 SETTING SPREADS
      • 4 SPREADS IN PERFORMANCE INDICES
      • 5 ADVANTAGEOUS BETS
      • 6 REGULATION, TAXATION, AND BIASES IN SPREAD BETTING MARKETS
    • Chapter 18: Prediction Markets: From Politics to Business (and Back)
      • Abstract
      • 1 OVERVIEW
      • 2 THE FIRST PREDICTION MARKETS
      • 3 MARKETS IN THE LAB
      • 4 CURRENT USES OF PREDICTION MARKETS: BUSINESS AND POLICY
      • 5 FUTURE DIRECTIONS: DECISION MARKETS
      • 6 POTENTIAL PITFALLS
      • 7 CONCLUSION
    • Chapter 19: Betting Exchanges : A Technological Revolution in Sports Betting
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE OPERATION OF BETTING EXCHANGES
      • 3 EMPIRICAL MODELS AND EVIDENCE CONCERNING WEAK-FORM INFORMATION EFFICIENCY IN BETTING EXCHANGES
      • 4 NEW EVIDENCE ON THE DEGREE OF BIAS IN BETTING EXCHANGE ODDS
      • 5 CONCLUSIONS
  • Part VII: Soccer
    • Chapter 20: Soccer Betting in Britain
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 DEVELOPMENT OF SOCCER BETTING
      • 3 TRANSACTIONS COSTS IN THE FIXED ODDS MARKET
      • 4 EARLY STUDY OF MARKET EFFICIENCY
      • 5 TIPSTERS
      • 6 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AS AN AID TO SOCCER BETTING
      • 7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • 8 SENTIMENT
      • 9 THE FUTURE OF RESEARCH ON SOCCER BETTING
    • Chapter 21: Efficiency of Soccer Betting Odds—Evidence from a Pan-European Electronic Market
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE SOCCER BETTING MARKET
      • 3 DATA DESCRIPTION
      • 4 EFFICIENCY TESTS
      • 5 CONCLUSION
  • Part VIII: Lotteries
    • Chapter 22: How to Design a Lottery
      • Abstract
      • Acknowledgments
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 THE ODDS OF WINNING A (PARI-MUTUEL) LOTTERY
      • 3 THE EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATION
      • 4 HIGHER MOMENTS OF THE PRIZE DISTRIBUTION
      • 5 ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND ESTIMATES
      • 6 GAME DESIGN SIMULATIONS
      • 7 CONCLUSION
      • APPENDIX: The Expected Value Formula
    • Chapter 23: The Statistics of Lotteries
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 PRIZE STRUCTURE AND WINNING CHANCES
      • 3 TESTS OF RANDOMNESS
      • 4 GAMBLER CHOICES
    • Chapter 24: U.S. Lotto Markets
      • Abstract
      • 1 INTRODUCTION
      • 2 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN LOTTERIES
      • 3 FUNGIBILITY OF LOTTERY REVENUES
      • 4 EFFICIENCY OF LOTTERY MARKETS—PART 1
      • 5 EFFICIENCY OF LOTTERY MARKETS—PART 2
      • 6 EFFICIENCY OF LOTTERY MARKETS—PART 3
      • 7 CONCLUSIONS
  • Subject Index
  • Author Index

Description

Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lottery markets make this volume a winner. These markets are simpler to study than traditional financial markets, and their expected values and outcomes are uncomplicated. By means of new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets.

Key Features

  • Easily studied sports markets reveal features relevant for more complex traditional financial markets
  • Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai
  • New studies of betting exchanges and Internet wagering markets

Readership

Primary: university, research, and major public libraries with finance and economics holdings. Secondary: academics in finance and economics


Details

No. of pages:
560
Language:
English
Copyright:
© North Holland 2008
Published:
Imprint:
North Holland
eBook ISBN:
9780080559957
Hardcover ISBN:
9780444507440

Reviews

"This timely and valuable volume showcases the frontier research in prediction markets by the very best researchers in the field. Issues of information aggregation and how the institutional backdrop influence such aggregation are age-old questions in Economics and Finance. The papers in this volume survey the current frontier, show how betting markets allow questions to be posed more sharply, and so yield more robust conclusions than is possible in more complex financial markets. The insights gained have many potentially fruitful applications in the design of institutions that promote information efficiency and for public policy more generally." --Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University "Hausch and Ziemba have produced a superb volume replete with papers from leading scholars in the economics of sports wagering and lotteries." --Raymond Sauer, Clemson University “The editors of this book have assembled a set of world-renowned scholars to produce an accessible and authoritative review of the behavior of sports betting and lottery markets. The volume is essential reading for students and practitioners involved in betting markets.” --Rob Simmons, Lancaster University


About the Editors

Donald Hausch Editor

Affiliations and Expertise

University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA

W.T. Ziemba Editor

Affiliations and Expertise

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada