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Introduction to the Series
Section III: Forecasters’ Objectives
Chapter 12. Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies
2 Model with Mixed Reputational and Contest Payoffs
3 Development of Reputational and Contest Theories
4 Equilibrium with Mixed Incentives
6 Robustness and Extensions
7 Role of Anonymity
8 Summary and Outlook
Chapter 13. Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective
2 Successful Investing Does Not Require Beating a Random Walk
3 Constructing a Currency Portfolio
4 Benchmarks for Currency Investors
5 Forecast Skill Evaluation: Tilt and Timing
6 Enhancing Forecasts with Conditioners
Section IV: Methodology
Chapter 14. Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions
2 Criterion-Based Methods When N < T
3 Regularization Methods
4 Dimension Reduction Methods
5 Three Practical Problems
Chapter 15. Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression
2 Bayesian Forecasting and Computation
3 Reduced Form VARs
4 Structural VARs
6 Conditional Forecasts
7 Time-Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility
8 Model and Variable Selection
9 High-Dimensional VARs
Appendix A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Appendix B State-Space Models
Appendix C Distributions
Chapter 16. Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series
2 Dependence Summary Statistics
3 Estimation and Inference for Copula Models
4 Model Selection and Goodness-of-Fit Testing
5 Other Issues in Applications
6 Applications of Copulas in Economics and Finance
7 Conclusions and Directions for Further Research
Chapter 17. Quantile Prediction
4 Specific Issues
5 Conclusion and Directions for Future Research
Chapter 18. Panel Data Forecasting
2 The Best Linear Unbiased Predictor
3 Homogeneous versus Heterogeneous Panel Forecasts
4 Caveats, Related Studies, and Future Work
Chapter 19. Forecasting Binary Outcomes
2 Probability Predictions
3 Evaluation of Binary Event Predictions
4 Binary Point Predictions
5 Improving Binary Predictions
Chapter 20. Advances in Forecast Evaluation
2 Modeling and Forecasting Framework
3 Pairs of Models: Population-Level and Finite-Sample Inference
4 Unconditional Versus Conditional Evaluation
5 Evaluation of Multiple Forecasts
6 Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts
7 Small-Sample Properties of Tests of Equal Predictive Ability
8 On the Choice of Sample Split
9 Why Do Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation?
11 Asymptotic Derivations for Out-of-Sample Inference: Examples
Chapter 21. Advances in Forecasting under Instability
2 Is the Predictive Content Unstable Over Time?
3 What is the Relationship Between in-sample and Out-of-sample Forecasting Ability in the Presence of Instabilities?
4 Empirical Evidence
Appendix 1 Critical Value Tables
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
- Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications
- Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications
- Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Graduate students and professors worldwide working in all subdisciplines of economics and finance
- No. of pages:
- © North Holland 2013
- 15th July 2013
- North Holland
- eBook ISBN:
- Hardcover ISBN:
"Forecasting is one of the most challenging and competitive activities undertaken by economists. Volume 2 of the Handbook of Economic Forecasting and the companion Volume 1 are essential references for keeping abreast of recent improvements in forecasting methodology and its application in demanding circumstances." --John Geweke, University of Technology Sydney, Australia
"This is a highly recommended volume on forecasting that covers a wide-range of applications in economic and financial forecasting, as well as providing comprehensive and up-to-date overviews of forecasting theory by the leading scholars in the field." --Hashem Pesaran, University of Southern California
"An excellent resource for any economist interested in forecasting." --Kenneth D. West, University of Wisconsin
"These articles have been written by the most important players in the areas, by the people who have provided important contributions to their fields. I have no doubt about the very high quality of these chapters and the impact they will have on people doing applied work." --Valentina Corradi, University of Warwick
Co-Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting, Graham Elliott is a Fellow at the Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis.
University of California, San Diego, USA
Allan Timmerman has served as an associate editor on the editorial boards of forecasting, economics, and finance journals. A member of the UCSD faculty since 1994, he obtained his Ph.D. from Cambridge University.
Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego, USA
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