Description

Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk discusses the geostatistical treatment of earthquake probabilities. The book reviews global tectonics and geologic history, including evidence of change, Pangaea, geochronology, tectonic revolutions, and the breakup of Pangaea. The book discusses the formation of Pangaea which later broke down into the present continental cores of Asia, Europe, Africa, Australian, Antarctica, and the Americas. The book describes the separation of North and South America from Europe, how Africa became established during the Cretaceous time, and how India split off from Africa to became welded to Asia at the Himalayas. The text also explains earthquake risk in terms of stochastic processes, point processes, and illustrates modeling of the earthquake process. The "Large-Earthquake Model" is based on a list of the largest earthquakes in the region, while a more sophisticated model requires the incorporation of non-Markovian effects (aftershock sequences). The book cites an application of investigations done on California where an earthquake of magnitude 5 is expected to occur every three months. An earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater is predicted to happen every 100 years but the book notes that the return period exceeds the range of the period of recorded data (which is only 31 years). Presented in another way, the text concludes that the probability of occurrence of an event of magnitude 8 earthquake or over in any given year is about one percent. The book can prove helpful for geologists, seismologists, meteorologists, or practitioners in the field of civil and structural engineering.

Table of Contents


Preface

Part I. Global Tectonics

Chapter 1. Continuity and Change

Synopsis

Evidence of Change

Geologic Continuity

Chapter 2. Geologic History

History of Pangaea

Geochronology

Dating of Rocks in the Field

Tectonic Revolutions

The Breakup of Pangaea

Chapter 3. Earthquakes

Introduction

Earthquake Parameters

Seismic Waves

Mechanism at the Source

Elasticity and Anelasticity

Equivalent Viscosity of the Mantle

Aftershocks

Earthquakes and Explosions

Chapter 4. Plate Tectonics

Introduction

The Plate Concept

Geometry of Sea-Floor Spreading

Tectonics of Sea-Floor Spreading

Stresses in Lithospheric Plates

Transcursion in California

Viscoelastic Rebound as an Earthquake Mechanism

Subduction

Accretion

The Elsasser Model

The South American West Coast

Part II. Earthquake Risk

Chapter 5. Stochastic Processes

Introduction

Statistics

Bayesian Statistics

Independence

Stationarity

Homogeneity

Chapter 6. Point Processes

Definition

The Poisson Process

Markov Processes

Renewal Processes

Generalized Poisson Processes; Superposition

Chapter 7. Modelling the Earthquake Process

Introduction

A Heuristic Model for the Earthquake Pro

Details

Language:
English
Copyright:
© 1974
Published:
Imprint:
Elsevier Science
Electronic ISBN:
9781483289540
Print ISBN:
9780444410764

About the author

Reviews

@qu:...of exceptional value to any person whose interest lies in any of the fields of plate tectonics, earthquake phenomena, seismicity, and stochastic phenomena. @source: Minerals Science & Engineering