Forecasting in Business and Economics - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780122951800, 9781483273594

Forecasting in Business and Economics

1st Edition

Authors: C. W. J. Granger
eBook ISBN: 9781483273594
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 28th January 1979
Page Count: 236
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Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set.

Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting.

This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.

Table of Contents


Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

1.1 A Scenario

1.2 Some Forecasting Situations

1.3 Types of Forecasts

1.4 Information Sets and Cost Functions

1.5 A Note on Notation


Chapter 2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting

2.1 Introducing Trends

2.2 Choosing and Estimating a Curve

2.3 Forecasting Using Trend Curves

2.4 Trend Removed by Differencing

2.5 Irregularly Recorded Data


Further Readings

Chapter 3 Forecasting from Time Series Models

3.1 White Noise

3.2 Moving Averages

3.3 Autoregressive Models

3.4 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models

3.5 Stationarity and Invertibility

3.6 The Correlogram and Partial Correlogram

3.7 The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building

3.8 Numerical Examples


Further Readings

Chapter 4 Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting

4.1 Cycles and the Seasonal Component

4.2 Low-Cost Time Series Forecasting Methods

4.3 Which Method to Use

4.4 Properties of Optimum Forecasts

4.5 Numerical Examples of Seasonal Series


Further Readings

Chapter 5 Regression Methods and Econometric Models

5.1 Relating Variables

5.2 Causal Models: An Example

5.3 Causal Models: The General Case

5.4 Some Practical Problems

5.5 Econometric Models

5.6 An Actual Econometric Model


Further Readings

Chapter 6 Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations

6.1 Overview of the Use of Survey Data

6.2 Anticipation Dat


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© Academic Press 1980
Academic Press
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About the Author

C. W. J. Granger

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