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Forecasting in Business and Economics - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780122951800, 9781483273594

Forecasting in Business and Economics

1st Edition

Author: C. W. J. Granger
eBook ISBN: 9781483273594
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 28th January 1979
Page Count: 236
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Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.

Table of Contents


Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

1.1 A Scenario

1.2 Some Forecasting Situations

1.3 Types of Forecasts

1.4 Information Sets and Cost Functions

1.5 A Note on Notation


Chapter 2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting

2.1 Introducing Trends

2.2 Choosing and Estimating a Curve

2.3 Forecasting Using Trend Curves

2.4 Trend Removed by Differencing

2.5 Irregularly Recorded Data


Further Readings

Chapter 3 Forecasting from Time Series Models

3.1 White Noise

3.2 Moving Averages

3.3 Autoregressive Models

3.4 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models

3.5 Stationarity and Invertibility

3.6 The Correlogram and Partial Correlogram

3.7 The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building

3.8 Numerical Examples


Further Readings

Chapter 4 Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting

4.1 Cycles and the Seasonal Component

4.2 Low-Cost Time Series Forecasting Methods

4.3 Which Method to Use

4.4 Properties of Optimum Forecasts

4.5 Numerical Examples of Seasonal Series


Further Readings

Chapter 5 Regression Methods and Econometric Models

5.1 Relating Variables

5.2 Causal Models: An Example

5.3 Causal Models: The General Case

5.4 Some Practical Problems

5.5 Econometric Models

5.6 An Actual Econometric Model


Further Readings

Chapter 6 Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations

6.1 Overview of the Use of Survey Data

6.2 Anticipation Data

6.3 Expectations and Attitudes

6.4 Survey of Forecasters


Further Readings

Chapter 7 Leading Indicators

7.1 Swings in the Economy

7.2 The Search for Indicators

7.3 Evaluation of Indicators

7.4 The 1974-1975 Depression


Further Readings

Chapter 8 Evaluation and Combination of Forecasts

8.1 Evaluating an Individual Forecasting Method

8.2 Evaluating a Group of Forecasting Methods

8.3 The Combination of Forecasts

8.4 How Well Do the Methods Work?


Further Readings

Chapter 9 Population Forecasting

9.1 Stating the Problem

9.2 Population Extrapolation

9.3 Birth-Rate Forecasting


Further Reading

Chapter 10 Technological Forecasting

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Growth Curve

10.3 The Delphi Method

10.4 Other Techniques

10.5 Examples of Scenarios

Appendix : Some Probable and Possible Scientific Innovations


Further Readings

Chapter 11 World Models

11.1 Introducing World Models

11.2 Evaluation

11.3 Food for a Doubling World Population

Further Readings

Chapter 12 Techniques Old and New

12.1 Forecasts from the Past

12.2 Choosing Methods

12.3 The Management of Forecasts


Further Readings



No. of pages:
© Academic Press 1979
28th January 1979
Academic Press
eBook ISBN:

About the Author

C. W. J. Granger

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