Forecasting in Business and Economics

Forecasting in Business and Economics

1st Edition - January 28, 1979

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  • Author: C. W. J. Granger
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483273594

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Description

Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.

Table of Contents


  • Preface

    Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

    1.1 A Scenario

    1.2 Some Forecasting Situations

    1.3 Types of Forecasts

    1.4 Information Sets and Cost Functions

    1.5 A Note on Notation

    Questions

    Chapter 2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting

    2.1 Introducing Trends

    2.2 Choosing and Estimating a Curve

    2.3 Forecasting Using Trend Curves

    2.4 Trend Removed by Differencing

    2.5 Irregularly Recorded Data

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 3 Forecasting from Time Series Models

    3.1 White Noise

    3.2 Moving Averages

    3.3 Autoregressive Models

    3.4 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models

    3.5 Stationarity and Invertibility

    3.6 The Correlogram and Partial Correlogram

    3.7 The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building

    3.8 Numerical Examples

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 4 Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting

    4.1 Cycles and the Seasonal Component

    4.2 Low-Cost Time Series Forecasting Methods

    4.3 Which Method to Use

    4.4 Properties of Optimum Forecasts

    4.5 Numerical Examples of Seasonal Series

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 5 Regression Methods and Econometric Models

    5.1 Relating Variables

    5.2 Causal Models: An Example

    5.3 Causal Models: The General Case

    5.4 Some Practical Problems

    5.5 Econometric Models

    5.6 An Actual Econometric Model

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 6 Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations

    6.1 Overview of the Use of Survey Data

    6.2 Anticipation Data

    6.3 Expectations and Attitudes

    6.4 Survey of Forecasters

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 7 Leading Indicators

    7.1 Swings in the Economy

    7.2 The Search for Indicators

    7.3 Evaluation of Indicators

    7.4 The 1974-1975 Depression

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 8 Evaluation and Combination of Forecasts

    8.1 Evaluating an Individual Forecasting Method

    8.2 Evaluating a Group of Forecasting Methods

    8.3 The Combination of Forecasts

    8.4 How Well Do the Methods Work?

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 9 Population Forecasting

    9.1 Stating the Problem

    9.2 Population Extrapolation

    9.3 Birth-Rate Forecasting

    Questions

    Further Reading

    Chapter 10 Technological Forecasting

    10.1 Introduction

    10.2 Growth Curve

    10.3 The Delphi Method

    10.4 Other Techniques

    10.5 Examples of Scenarios

    Appendix : Some Probable and Possible Scientific Innovations

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Chapter 11 World Models

    11.1 Introducing World Models

    11.2 Evaluation

    11.3 Food for a Doubling World Population

    Further Readings

    Chapter 12 Techniques Old and New

    12.1 Forecasts from the Past

    12.2 Choosing Methods

    12.3 The Management of Forecasts

    Questions

    Further Readings

    Index

Product details

  • No. of pages: 236
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Academic Press 1979
  • Published: January 28, 1979
  • Imprint: Academic Press
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483273594

About the Author

C. W. J. Granger

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