Forecasting in Business and Economics - 1st Edition - ISBN: 9780122951800, 9781483273594

Forecasting in Business and Economics

1st Edition

Authors: C. W. J. Granger
eBook ISBN: 9781483273594
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 28th January 1979
Page Count: 236
Tax/VAT will be calculated at check-out Price includes VAT (GST)
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
20% off
20% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
20% off
20% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
30% off
20% off
20% off
43.99
30.79
30.79
30.79
30.79
30.79
35.19
35.19
54.95
38.47
38.47
38.47
38.47
38.47
43.96
43.96
72.95
51.06
51.06
51.06
51.06
51.06
58.36
58.36
Unavailable
Price includes VAT (GST)
× DRM-Free

Easy - Download and start reading immediately. There’s no activation process to access eBooks; all eBooks are fully searchable, and enabled for copying, pasting, and printing.

Flexible - Read on multiple operating systems and devices. Easily read eBooks on smart phones, computers, or any eBook readers, including Kindle.

Open - Buy once, receive and download all available eBook formats, including PDF, EPUB, and Mobi (for Kindle).

Institutional Access

Secure Checkout

Personal information is secured with SSL technology.

Free Shipping

Free global shipping
No minimum order.

Description

Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set.

Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting.

This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.

Table of Contents


Preface

Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

1.1 A Scenario

1.2 Some Forecasting Situations

1.3 Types of Forecasts

1.4 Information Sets and Cost Functions

1.5 A Note on Notation

Questions

Chapter 2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting

2.1 Introducing Trends

2.2 Choosing and Estimating a Curve

2.3 Forecasting Using Trend Curves

2.4 Trend Removed by Differencing

2.5 Irregularly Recorded Data

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 3 Forecasting from Time Series Models

3.1 White Noise

3.2 Moving Averages

3.3 Autoregressive Models

3.4 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models

3.5 Stationarity and Invertibility

3.6 The Correlogram and Partial Correlogram

3.7 The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building

3.8 Numerical Examples

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 4 Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting

4.1 Cycles and the Seasonal Component

4.2 Low-Cost Time Series Forecasting Methods

4.3 Which Method to Use

4.4 Properties of Optimum Forecasts

4.5 Numerical Examples of Seasonal Series

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 5 Regression Methods and Econometric Models

5.1 Relating Variables

5.2 Causal Models: An Example

5.3 Causal Models: The General Case

5.4 Some Practical Problems

5.5 Econometric Models

5.6 An Actual Econometric Model

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 6 Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations

6.1 Overview of the Use of Survey Data

6.2 Anticipation Data

6.3 Expectations and Attitudes

6.4 Survey of Forecasters

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 7 Leading Indicators

7.1 Swings in the Economy

7.2 The Search for Indicators

7.3 Evaluation of Indicators

7.4 The 1974-1975 Depression

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 8 Evaluation and Combination of Forecasts

8.1 Evaluating an Individual Forecasting Method

8.2 Evaluating a Group of Forecasting Methods

8.3 The Combination of Forecasts

8.4 How Well Do the Methods Work?

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 9 Population Forecasting

9.1 Stating the Problem

9.2 Population Extrapolation

9.3 Birth-Rate Forecasting

Questions

Further Reading

Chapter 10 Technological Forecasting

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Growth Curve

10.3 The Delphi Method

10.4 Other Techniques

10.5 Examples of Scenarios

Appendix : Some Probable and Possible Scientific Innovations

Questions

Further Readings

Chapter 11 World Models

11.1 Introducing World Models

11.2 Evaluation

11.3 Food for a Doubling World Population

Further Readings

Chapter 12 Techniques Old and New

12.1 Forecasts from the Past

12.2 Choosing Methods

12.3 The Management of Forecasts

Questions

Further Readings

Index

Details

No. of pages:
236
Language:
English
Copyright:
© Academic Press 1980
Published:
Imprint:
Academic Press
eBook ISBN:
9781483273594

About the Author

C. W. J. Granger