Evaluation of Econometric Models

List Of Contributors

Preface

Problems and Issues in Evaluating Econometric Models


1. A Topical Overview


2. Research Recommendations

Reference

Part I Evaluation Of Informal Models

The Use of Exploratory Methods in Economic Analysis: Analyzing Residential Energy Demand


1. Introduction


2. The Strengths and Limitations of the Modes of Analysis


3. The Confirmatory Analysis of Residential Energy Consumption


4. An Exploratory Analysis of Residential Energy Demand


5. Conclusions

References

Model Construction and Evaluation When Theoretical Knowledge Is Scarce

Introduction


1. Model Formulation When Theoretical Knowledge Is Scarce


2. Model Fitting and Parameter Estimation with PLS


3. Construction and Evaluation of PLS Models

References

Data Analysis by Partial Least Squares


1. Introduction. Latent Variables and Soft Models


2. The Command Diagram


3. Polygon Diagrams


4. Precise Forms of the Operator "Opt" for the Relationship Between Two Latent Variables


5. Precise Forms of the Operator "Opt" for the Relationships Among Several Latent Variables: Approaches to Eigenanalysis


6. How Soft Modeling Relates to Canonical Analysis and to Maximum-Likelihood Estimation

Prediction Analysis of Economic Models


1. Forms of Prediction


2. Evaluating Absolute Predictions


3. Evaluating Actuarial Predictions: An Interpretation of the Correlation Ratio and r2


4. Multivariate Prediction Analysis


5. Estimation of ∇ from Sample Data


6. Summary and Directions for Research

Appendix

References

Some Comments on the Evaluation of Informal Models


1. Exploratory Data Analysis


2. Partial Least Squares (PLS)


3. Set Predictions and Econometric Models


4. Summary

References

Part II Specification Errors And Sensitivity Analysis

Aggregation and Disaggregation of Nonlinear Equations


1. Introduction


2. Single Equation Models


3. A Systems Generalization


4. Conclusions

References

Regression Sensitivity Analysis and Bounded-Influence Estimation


1. Introduction


2. Data and Model


3. Robust Estimation


4. Regression Diagnostics


5. Multiple-Row Diagnostics


6. Bounded-Influence Estimation

References

On Specification in Simultaneous Equation Models


1. Introduction


2. The Complete Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model


3. Testing the Exogeneity Specification


4. Testing the Overidentifying Restrictions


5. Empirical Illustrations


6. A Suggestion for Standards in Empirical Work

References

Robust Analysis of the Random Model and Weighted Least Squares Regression


1. Introduction


2. One-Way Random Model Under Conventional Assumptions


3. Random Model without Normality


4. Random Model Weighted Regression


5. On Robustness

References

Some Comments on Papers by Dent and Geweke, Welsch, and Kelejian

References

Some Comments on the Papers by Welsch and Hill

Part III Formal Decision Rules For Comparing Models

Comparison of Econometric Models by Optimal Control Techniques


1. Existing Characterizations of an Econometric Model


2. Characterization of an Econometric Model by Deterministic Control


3. Characterization of an Econometric Model by Stochastic Control


4. An Illustration Using the Michigan Model

References

Bayesian Decision Theory and the Simplification of Models


1. Introduction


2. Bayesian Response to Data; Odds


3. Prediction


4. Discussion

References

Some Comments on "Comparison of Econometric Models by Optimal Control Techniques" by Gregory C. Chow

References

Part IV Role Of Time Series Analysis In Econometrics

The Role of Time Series Analysis in Econometric Model Evaluation


1. Introduction


2. Evaluation of Dynamic Econometric Models


3. Univariate Time Series Analysis


4. Multivariate Time Series Analysis


5. An Analysis of Aggregate Consumption Data


6. Conclusion

References

Hypothesis Testing in Spectral Regression; the Lagrange Multiplier Test as a Regression Diagnostic


1. Introduction


2. Serial Correlation


3. Band Spectrum Regression


4. General Linear Hypothesis Test


5. A Comparison of Test Criteria


6. A Time Domain Example


7. A Frequency Domain Example

References

Multicollinearity and the Estimation of Low-Order Moments in Stable Lag Distributions


1. Introduction


2. Objectives and Precision Criteria


3. A Numerical Example Using δ2(h) Criterion


4. Theoretical Arguments Supporting Claims of Precision


5. Other Considerations

References

Some Comments on the Role of Time-Series Analysis in Econometrics

References

Part V Experimentation And Tests Of Economic Hypotheses

Relevance of Laboratory Experiments to Testing Resource Allocation Theory


1. Introduction


2. Some Preceptual Foundations of Experimental Economics


3. Dynamic Market Adjustment Hypotheses


4. Effect of Information on Price Convergence in Competitive Markets


5. Sealed-Bid Mechanisms for Private Goods


6. Choice Mechanisms for Public Goods


7. Conclusion

References

Token Economy and Animal Models for the Experimental Analysis of Economic Behavior

Introduction


1. Experimental Studies of Individual Behavior


2. Studies of Aggregate Economic Behavior and More Policy Oriented Research Questions


3. Conclusion

References

Some Comments on the Papers by Kagel and Battalio and by Smith

Reference

Some Comments on the Papers by Kagel and Battalio and by Smith

References