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1. Introduction: Escaping from Bad Decisions
2. Formal Definitions of the Worst Decisions, Best Decisions, and Bad Decisions
3. Rational Choice, Irrational Choice, and Bad Decisions
4. Preference Ordering and Measurement
5. Rational Preference, Irrational Preference, and Revealed Preference
6. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making, Multi-Objective Optimization, and the Additive Conjoint System
7. A Computer Simulation of Cognitive Effort and the Accuracy of Two Stage Decision Strategies in a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process
8. A Computer Simulation of Bad Decisions and Good Decisions: An Extended Analysis of Two Stage Decision Strategies
9. A Process Tracing Study of Decision Strategies and Bad Decisions
10. A Process Tracing Study of Bad Decisions: Using Eye Tracking in Food Decision Making
11. Decision Strategies and Bad Group Decision-Making: A Group Meeting Experiment
12. An Observational Experiment in Group Decision Making: Can People Detect Bad Group Decisions?
13. Revisiting the Group Decision-Making Experiment
14. The Detection of Bad Decisions and a Voting Experiment
15. Metacognition and the Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Process
16. The Contingent Focus Model and Bad Decisions
17. An Experiment on, and Psyschometric Analysis of, the Contingent Focus Model
18. The Situated Focus Model and its Relation to Other Theories
19. The Mental Ruler Model: Qualitative and Mathematical Representations of Contingent Judgement
20. How Attention Arises in and Influences Decision-Making
21. Escaping from Bad Decisions and Future Perspectives
Escaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis examined in view of rationality, it shows how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood. It provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making, and evaluates the constitutive elements of "good" and "bad" decisions. Multi-attribute decision-making is analysed descriptively, based on the psychological model of decision-making and computer simulations of decision strategies. Finally, prescriptive examinations of multi-attribute decision-making are performed, supporting the argument that decision-making from a pluralistic perspective creates results that can help "escape" from bad decisions.
This book will be of particular interest to graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision-theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences.
- Provides a comprehensive background to the phenomena of bad decisions, considered in their economic, psychological and cognitive aspects
- Reinterprets existing theories and phenomena and proposes a new overview of decision behaviors by integrating mathematical and psychological perspectives
- Adapts model-based techniques, such as mathematical model based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using mathematical models of the decision process
Graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences
- No. of pages:
- © Academic Press 2021
- 1st September 2021
- Academic Press
- Paperback ISBN:
Kazuhisa Takemura is a professor of psychology and economics and the director of the Institute for Decision Research at Waseda University. His research focuses on human judgment and decision making, especially modeling of preferential judgment and choice. He received the Hayashi Award (Distinguished Scholar) from The Behaviormetric Society in 2002, Excellent Paper Award from Japan Society of Kansei Engineering in 2003, the Book Award from Japanese Society of Social Psychology in 2010, the Book Award from Behaviormetric Society in 2016, and the Fellow Award from International Association of Applied Psychology in 2018.
Institute for Decision Research, Waseda University, Japan
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