Energy: The Countdown

Energy: The Countdown

A Report to the Club of Rome: Thierry De Montbrial

1st Edition - January 1, 1979

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  • Authors: Robert Lattès, Carroll Wilson
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483154213

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Description

Energy: The Countdown raises the specter of a catastrophic energy crisis that could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are concerted. The goal is to make both decision-makers and the public aware that there exists a real threat to human society in the form of a looming energy crisis. This book is comprised of 11 chapters and begins by emphasizing the importance of energy as the oxygen of economic life and how a shortage or limitation of energy resources can seriously endanger the world's economic development. The constraints that will limit the supply of certain types of energy are considered, along with the importance of long-term planning. The next section deals with the politics of energy, paying particular attention to the oil crisis and its impact on international relations since October 1973, together with the nuclear power crisis and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Subsequent chapters explore the relationship between geopolitics and energy policy; the nature of the energy problem; global energy demand; energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy; and the possibility of an imbalanced oil market. The final chapter evaluates the economic effects of a massive increase in oil prices. This monograph will be of interest to energy policymakers and government officials.

Table of Contents


  • Foreword

    Acknowledgments

    Recommendations

    Preliminaries

    Part One: The Past The Politics of Energy: The Oil and Nuclear Power Crisis

    Chapter I. The Great Oil Adventure

    I. The Basic Characteristics of the Oil Industry

    II. The Birth and Hegemony of the Majors

    III. Sharing the Oil Rent

    Chapter II. The Oil Crisis and International Relations since October 1973

    I. Fall 1973

    II. Reactions to the October 1973 Events

    III. 1974 and 1975: Confusion then Calm

    IV. The CIEC

    V. 1976-1978: Quiet on the Oil Front

    VI. What Happened?

    Chapter III. The Nuclear Energy Crisis

    I. Why the Opposition to Nuclear Energy?

    II. The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

    III. Remarks on the Nature of Nonproliferation

    IV. A Few Conclusions

    Chapter IV. Geopolitics and Energy Policy

    I. Upheaval in the World Order

    II. The Third World and OPEC

    III. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

    IV. The United States

    V. The Other Energy-Importing Industrial Countries and the IEA

    Part Two: The Future The Energy Crisis: Outlook and Scenarios

    Chapter I. The Nature of the Energy Problem

    I. Renewable and Nonrenewable Forms of Energy

    II. Pollution and Degradation of Energy

    III. Energy and Civilization

    IV. A Necessary Decision

    V. An Impasse?

    Chapter II. Global Energy Demand

    I. General Observations on the Relationship between Energy Demand and Economic Activity

    II. Predicted Annual Energy Consumption to 2025

    Chapter III. Toward an Imbalanced Oil Market

    I. A Question of Method

    II. The Decline in the Gross Increase in Reserves

    III. The Adjustment of Supply and Demand

    Chapter IV. Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear and Other Energy Sources

    I. Natural Gas

    II. Coal

    III. Nuclear Energy

    IV. Other Energy Sources

    Chapter V. Anticipating the Second Energy Crisis to Try to Avoid it

    I. A Second Crisis is Likely

    II. Insurance against the Future

    Chapter VI. Future Evolution of the Price of Energy

    I. "The" Price of Energy: A Useful Fiction

    II. The Principle of Marginal-Cost Pricing

    III. Setting the Price of Energy and Distributing the Income in Industrial Countries

    IV. The Need for International Cooperation

    Chapter VII. The Economic Effects of a Massive Increase in the Price of Oil

    I. The Effects of the Increase at the End of 1973

    II. 1973 Crisis, Monetary Disorder and Threats of Protectionism

    III. Future Shock

    Summary and Conclusions

    Appendices

    Appendix I. Oil: Taxation Costs and Sharing the Rent

    I. Tax Policy of the Oil-Producing Countries since Introduction of the Fifty-Fifty System

    II. The Tax Policy Applicable to American Concessionaires

    III. The Evolution of Oil Prices between 1860 and 1977

    Appendix II. Units and Orders of Magnitude

    I. Preliminary Remarks

    II. Mechanical and Heating Units

    III. Heating Value of Fuels and Energy Equivalents

    IV. Order of Size of Electricity Consumption of a Few Common Appliances

    Appendix III. Supplementary Illustrations and Tables

    I. Per Capita Energy Consumption

    II. Oil Requirements of Main Countries and Groups of Countries

    III. Energy Consumption and Dependence of EEC Countries

    IV. Economic Data

    Bibliography

    Index

Product details

  • No. of pages: 270
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Pergamon 1979
  • Published: January 1, 1979
  • Imprint: Pergamon
  • eBook ISBN: 9781483154213

About the Authors

Robert Lattès

Carroll Wilson

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