Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers.
- Covers economic risk from exploration through production models
- Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC
- Analyzes numerical examples from the real world
- Removes "mystery" from how economics is done
- Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections
Scientists, economists, and professionals concerned with exploiting the world's oil and gas resources; oil and gas company explorationists, strategic resource economists, and academic and private research scientists involved in quantitative geology problems or who deal with the economic risk associated with hydrocarbon exploration.
Preface. Introduction. Risk Adjusted Value (RAV) and Working Interest. Uncertainty and Probability Estimates for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Portfolio Balancing and Risk Adjusted Values Under Constrained Budget Conditions. Similarity, Dependence and Correlation for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Modifications to Risk Aversion in High Gain Situations. Corporate Funding Requests, Fixed Budgets, and Cost Balancing. Maximizing Oil Field Profit in the Face of Uncertainty. The Value of Added Information: Categories of Worth. Counting Successes, and Bidding Statistics Analyses. Economic Model Uncertainties. Bayesian Updating of an Opportunity. Options in Exploration Risk Analysis. Appendix A: Numerical Methods and Spread Sheets. Epilogue: Summary. References.
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- © Academic Press 1999
- 4th January 1999
- Academic Press
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C. Ian Lerche is the author of more than 500 papers and has received numerous awards, including the Levorsen Award of the AAPG, the Nordic Professorship inPetroleum Geology, and the French Academie des Sciences Professorship in Geology. He has been a professor of geology in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of South Carolina since 1984, and was associate chairman of the department 1985–1989. Between 1965–1981 he held positions of research associate, assistant professor, and associate professor at the University of Chicago. From 1981–1984 he worked as a senior scientist at Gulf Research and Development Co. He received a B.Sc. in physics in 1962 and a Ph.D. in astronomy in 1965 from the University of Manchester.
Dept. of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, U.S.A.
Texaco, Houston, Texas, U.S.A.