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Economic Disturbances and Equilibrium in an Integrated Global Economy: Investment Insights and Policy Analysis helps readers develop a framework for analyzing economic events and make better, more consistent decisions. Victor Canto presents the theoretical building blocks that make up the overall framework, then expands the framework to tackle more complex problems, applying additional considerations to actual policy or investment issues. Drawing upon the most recent trends in monetary policy and international economics, the book offers sustained direct engagement with the main research question and makes innovative use of the simple concepts of supply and demand to illuminate modern finance literature.
The book succeeds by highlighting the often-forgotten interconnectedness of different economic processes. How do we respond to a change in policy or an economic shock? Are all the expected changes to the general equilibrium consistent with each other?
- Helps readers build an intellectual framework that enables them to interpret articles in the financial press and policy decisions in a logical and consistent manner
- Differs from other books by eschewing partial equilibria analyses and instead providing a general equilibrium perspective useful for investors and policy makers
- Provides supporting data on a freely-accessible website so readers can test and replicate results
Upper-division undergraduates, graduate students, and professionals in international economics, macroeconomics, financial economics, and monetary economics. This book can be read by anyone who reads The Economist or The Wall Street Journal
Introduction: Asset Allocation: Indexing, Smart Beta and Value Timing
Part I: Arbitrage and Mobility
1. Arbitrage, Mobility and Equilibrium Price
2. The Investment and Policy Insights and Implications Derived from Arbitrage and Mobility
3. Are Commodity Price Increases Equivalent to Tax Increases?
4. The Terms of Trade
5. Yields, Risk Premium, and Terms of Trade
6. The Competitive Economic Environment: Lessons from the States
7. Economic Policy and Performance: The Small-Cap and Country Effects
8. Migration: A Political Problem, an Economic Problem, or Both?
Part II: The Trade Balance
9. The Macro Prospective
10. Diversity and Harmonization
11. The State Competitive Environment: Integration and Convergence
12. The Degree of Global Integration and National Economies’ Policy Options and Limitations
13. A Unified Theory: The Terms of Trade, Real GDP Growth Rate Differentials, Trade Balance, Capital Flows, and Relative Stock Market Performance
Part III: Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade
14. Protectionism, Devaluation, and the Terms of Trade
15. Exchange Rates, Devaluations and the Terms of Trade
16. The Nominal Exchange Rate, the Terms of Trade, and the Economy
17. The U.S. Experience: An Interpretation
18. Relative Price Changes, Income Redistribution, and the Politics of Envy
19. Self-sufficiency, Nationalism, and Protectionism: The Common Elements
20. Mercantilism Does Not Make for Good Economics
Part IV: The Balance of Payments
21. Building Block IV, Global Investing the Balance of Payments
22. Monetary Views: Part I
23. Monetary Views: Part II
24. The Greenspan Monetary Rule
25. Transparency and Rule-Based Monetary Policy
26. A Single or Dual Mandate?
27. The Demise of the Global Price Rule
28. The U.S. Inflation Rate
29. The Exchange Rate and Rest of the World Inflation
Part V: China--A Case Study
30. China in a Global Economy: An Interpretation
31. Examining China: Wealth, Income, and the Savings Rate
32. Examining China: Purchasing Power Parity, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rates
33. Examining China: Economic Growth, Exchange Rates, and Relative Stock Performance
34. Examining China: Monetary Policy, Inflation Potential under a Floating Exchange Rate System
35. Examining China: Monetary Policy, Inflation Potential under a Fixed Exchange Rate System
36. Examining China: As a Non-Reserve Currency Country
- No. of pages:
- © Academic Press 2018
- 18th April 2018
- Academic Press
- eBook ISBN:
- Paperback ISBN:
Victor A. Canto is the Chief Economist and Managing Director of Global Strategies at Cadinha & Co. and founder and Chairman of La Jolla Economics. He was an advisor to the Lazard Capital Allocator Series, Advisor to the Nestegg Funds, Trustee of StockJungle.com in Culver City, California, Director, Chief Investment Officer, and Portfolio Manager of Calport Asset Management, and President and Director of Research of A.B. Laffer, V. A. Canto & Associates. He was a tenured Associate Professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California (USC) from 1983 to 1985. Dr. Canto was Assistant Professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California from 1977 to 1983 and Visiting Professor at the Universidad Central del Este in the Dominican Republic. He was also a Visiting Professor of economics at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) during the winter of 1987. During 1980, Dr. Canto was a consultant to the Financial Council of Puerto Rico; during 1977, an advisor to the economic Studies Division of the Dominican Republic’s Central Bank. During 1975 he was technical advisor to the Finance Minister of the Dominican Republic. Dr. Canto received a B Sc. in civil engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1972, an M.A. and Ph. D. in economics from the University of Chicago (1974, 1977). Dr. Canto has authored, edited, or co-edited a number of books, including the landmark Foundations of Supply-Side Economics, as well as Monetary Policy, Taxation, and International Investment Strategy; Supply-Side Portfolio Strategies; and Currency Substitution: Theory and Evidence from Latin America , Understanding Asset Allocation as well as Cocktail Economics. Economic Disturbances and Equilibrium in an Integrated Global Economy ( Forthcoming). He is the recipient of the Supremo de Plata awarded by the Dominican Republic JC to the Outstanding Young Man of 1983, and the recipient of the University of Southern California University Scholar award. He is a member of Chi Epsilon (the civil engineering honorary society). Victor Canto’s articles have appeared in many of the leading economic journals, including Economic Inquiry, Journal of Macroeconomics, The International Trade Journal, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, The Southern Economic Journal, Applied Economics, Weltwirstchaftliches Archiv, The CATO Journal, Public Finance, The Journal of International Money and Finance and The Journal of Wealth Management. In addition to his principal fields of interest--International Economics, Public Finance, and Macroeconomics, Dr. Canto has been published in the Wall Street Journal and the Investor’s Business Daily. He authored articles on energy markets for the Public Utilities Fortnightly, and the Oil and Gas Journal, as well as a series of articles on portfolio strategy for the Financial Analysts Journal. He contributed “Exotic Currencies,” to The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, published by MacMillan Press Limited in 1992. He also was a contributing editor for National Review Online Financial.
Chief Economist and Managing Director of Global Strategies at Cadinha & Co., Founder and Chairman of La Jolla Economics
"Victor Canto's work sets a new standard for explaining the most complex economic and financial questions of our time. He has simplified the interactions between politics, trade, and decision risk during the turbulent period of 2008. The reader will see that this book challenges assumptions that politicians have made in setting policies for immigration, trade and finance. When Dr. Canto asks a question, he suggests novel answers and alternatives. This is a terrific read for Governors and federal statesmen alike." --Roy A. Herberger, Jr., President Emeritus, Thunderbird School of Global Management
"Like me, Victor is an advocate of low taxation, minimal regulation, and sound money policy. He knows that these macro forces highly favor increased individual freedom and greater prosperity for all. The data prove it time and again. It’s hard not to be an advocate for what you know works." --Larry Kudlow, CNBC Senior Contributor
"Dr.Canto’s book covers, in its seven building blocks, a large spectrum of macroeconomics, trade, and financial theoretical topics by using mathematical tools and always referring to real world economic and financial problems. Graduate students in economics and business schools, financial market analysts, and policy makers in macroeconomic and trade policies now have in hand a rigorous book enlightened with spring water economics." --Tulio H. F. Arvelo Durán, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
"Economic theory tells us how people will behave in reaction to government policies. Dr. Canto’s book tells us how to invest to take advantage of that behavior." --Doo Jin Ryu, Sungkyunkwan University
"Financial markets are often driven by government fiscal, regulatory, and central bank monetary policy actions. Understanding the likely impact of these policies is vital for policymaking and investment success in today’s increasingly global markets. This excellent book explains in easy-to-understand language both how the economy works and the investment implications. Economic students and investors should read this insightful and informative book." --Robert I. Webb, University of Virginia
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