Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure

Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure

Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure

1st Edition - May 21, 2021

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  • Editors: Giuliano Panza, Vladimir Kossobokov, Efraim Laor, Benedetto DeVivo
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128235034
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128235416

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Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure: Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure communicates in one comprehensive volume the state-of-the-art scientific knowledge on earthquakes and related risks. Earthquakes occur in a seemingly random way and, in some cases, it is possible to trace seismicity back to the concept of deterministic chaos. Therefore, seismicity can be explained by a deterministic mechanism that arises as a result of various convection movements in the Earth’s mantle, expressed in the modern movement of lithospheric plates fueled by tidal forces. Consequently, to move from a perspective focused on the response to emergencies to a new perspective based on prevention and sustainability, it is necessary to follow this neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) to guarantee prevention, saving lives and infrastructure. This book describes in a complete and consistent way an effective explanation to complex structures, systems, and components, and prescribes solutions to practical challenges. It reflects the scientific novelty and promises a feasible, workable, theoretical and applicative attitude. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure serves a “commentary role” for developers and designers of critical infrastructure and unique installations. Commentary-like roles follow standard, where there is no standard. Mega-installations embody/potentiate risks; nonetheless, lack a comprehensive classic standard. Every compound is unique, one of its kind, and differs from others even of similar function. There is no justification to elaborate a common standard for unique entities. On the other hand, these specific installations, for example, NPPs, Naval Ports, Suez Canal, HazMat production sites, and nuclear waste deposits, impose security and safety challenges to people and the environment. The book offers a benchmark for entrepreneurs, designers, constructors, and operators on how to compile diverse relevant information on site-effects and integrate it into the best-educated guess to keep safe and secure, people and environment. The authors are eager to convey the entire information and explanations to our readers, without missing either accurate information or explanations. That is achieved by “miniaturization,” as much is possible, not minimization. So far, the neodeterministic method has been successfully applied in numerous metropolitan areas and regions such as Delhi (India), Beijing (China), Naples (Italy), Algiers (Algeria), Cairo (Egypt), Santiago de Cuba (Cuba), Thessaloniki (Greece), South-East Asia (2004), Tohoku, Japan (2011), Albania (2019), Bangladesh, Iran, Sumatra, Ecuador, and elsewhere. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure includes case studies from these areas, as well as suggested applications to other seismically active areas around the globe. NDSHA approaches confirm/validate that science is looming to warn. Concurrently, leaders and practitioners have to learn to use rectified science in favor of peoples' safety. State-of-the-art science does have the know-how to reduce casualties and structural damage from potential catastrophes to a bearable incident.  

Key Features

  • The only book to cover earthquake prediction and preparation from a neo-deterministic (NDSHA) approach
  • Includes case studies from metropolitan areas where the neo-deterministic method has been successfully applied
  • Editors and authors include top experts in academia, disaster prevention, and preparedness management


Geophysicists, geochemists, exploration geologists, seismologists, volcanologists, most categories of engineers from civil to mechanical, from chemical to computer, from bio-medical to electrical; disaster managers, emergency managers, high-ranking officials with governmental and municipality echelons, logistic officers of military services, infrastructure entrepreneurs, financial and insurance industry employees, multidisciplinary students, researchers, and university professors

Table of Contents

  • Cover image
  • Title page
  • Table of Contents
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • Contributors
  • About the editors
  • Preface
  • Chapter 1. Hazard, risks, and prediction
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. The core seed of disaster
  • 3. What do we know about earthquakes?
  • 4. Seismic hazard and associated risks
  • 5. Prediction
  • 6. Discussion and conclusions
  • Chapter 2. Seismic hazard assessment from the perspective of disaster prevention
  • Part I: Requirements and state of the art
  • Part II: Procedure and practical example
  • Chapter 3. The view of a structural engineer about reliable seismic hazard assessment
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. A set of inconsistent myths
  • 3. Weaknesses in current seismic design philosophy
  • 4. Reliable seismic hazard
  • 5. Conclusions
  • Chapter 4. Disaster prediction and civil preparedness
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Effective prediction time
  • 3. An unbridgeable gap between response capabilities and scale of losses
  • 4. Increase cooperation with the international emergency response system
  • 5. Given days
  • 6. Given seconds—minutes—hours
  • 7. Given years one cannot
  • 8. Conclusion
  • Chapter 5. The integration between seismology and geodesy for intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction according to NDSHA
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Time independent narrow-range signatures for earthquake prediction: a geodetic GNSS-based approach
  • 3. Intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction: the benefit of geodesy and seismology synergy
  • 4. Conclusions and future perspectives
  • Chapter 6. Modeling the block-and-fault structure dynamics with application to studying seismicity and geodynamics
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Brief description of the BAFD model
  • 3. Summary of the results obtained by means of the BAFD model
  • 4. Discussion and conclusion
  • Chapter 7. Morphostructural zoning for identifying earthquake-prone areas
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Morphostructural zoning: basic definitions and an application for the Italian region
  • 3. Nodes and earthquakes
  • 4. Identification of seismogenic nodes by pattern recognition
  • 5. Validity of the methodology
  • 6. Conclusions
  • Chapter 8. Earthquake forecasting and time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in Italy and surroundings
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions based on precursory seismicity patterns
  • 3. Earthquake forecasting by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy
  • 4. Neo-deterministic time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios for the Italian territory
  • 5. Discussion and conclusions
  • Chapter 9. Spreading NDSHA application from Italy to other areas
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Rome
  • 3. Valparaìso
  • 4. Trieste
  • 5. Discussion
  • Chapter 10. S-wave velocity profiling for site response evaluation in urban areas
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Methodologies
  • 3. Noise cross-correlation experiments for the definition of VS models
  • 4. VS models
  • 5. Site effects
  • 6. Conclusions
  • Chapter 11. A user-friendly approach to NDSHA computations
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Once upon a (CPU) time…
  • 3. Back to the future
  • 4. Toward user friendliness
  • 5. XeRiS
  • 6. Conclusions
  • Chapter 12. Recent applications of NDSHA: seismic input for high rise buildings in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Methodology
  • 3. Input data for hazard computation
  • 4. Ground shaking scenarios
  • 5. Conclusions
  • Chapter 13. Neodeterministic method to assess the seismic performance of water distribution networks
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Resilience of water distribution network
  • 3. Case study
  • 4. Conclusion
  • Chapter 14. Seismic hazard analysis in a historical context: experience at caltrans and elsewhere
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Deterministic approach used in California from early 1970s to date
  • 3. Oppositions to the MCE-based seismic hazards
  • 4. A remarkable negative experience
  • 5. Other experience
  • 6. Two favorite recollections
  • 7. Concluding remarks, questions, and suggestions
  • 8. Questions
  • 9. Suggestions
  • Abbreviations
  • Chapter 15. Where there is no science – probabilistic hazard assessment in volcanological and nuclear waste settings: facts, needs, and challenges in Italy
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Hazard and volcanic risk to Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
  • 3. Radioactive waste storage in salt formations at Scanzano Jonico site (southern Italy)
  • 4. Conclusions
  • Chapter 16. Seismic hazard and earthquake engineering for engineering community
  • 1. Consequences of earthquakes
  • 2. Seismic hazard
  • 3. Earthquake mitigation measures and modern earthquake engineering
  • 4. Motivations of offshore earthquake engineering
  • 5. Closing remarks
  • Chapter 17. Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis and its applications in the central United States
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Scenario seismic hazard analysis
  • 3. Scenario ground motions and hazard maps for Kentucky
  • 4. Discussion
  • 5. Conclusions
  • Chapter 18. NDSHA achievements in Central and South-eastern Europe
  • 1. Introduction—reliable seismic hazard assessment—a prerequisite for building disaster-resilient and environmentally friendly society
  • 2. The NDSHA multiaspect power
  • 3. Conclusive remarks
  • Chapter 19. Application of NDSHA to historical urban areas
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Case study of Poggio Picenze (Abruzzo region, central Italy)
  • 3. Case study of Napoli (Campania region, southern Italy)
  • 4. Conclusions
  • Chapter 20. Insights from neo-deterministic seismic hazard analyses in Romania
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Seismicity and earthquake source zones in Romania
  • 3. Seismic hazard at national scale
  • 4. Seismic hazard at local scale
  • 5. Discussion and conclusion
  • Chapter 21. NDSHA in Bulgaria
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. NDSHA applications in Bulgaria
  • 3. Sofia NDSHA case study
  • 4. Russe NDSHA case study
  • 5. Conclusive remarks
  • Chapter 22. NDSHA-based vulnerability evaluation of precode buildings in Republic of North Macedonia: novel experiences
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Experiences and motivation—a chronological overview
  • 3. Seismowall research project
  • 4. Case study
  • 5. Conclusions
  • Chapter 23. Seismic characterization of Tirana–Durrës–Lezha region (northwestern Albania) and analysis effort through NSHDA method
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Geological and tectonic background of the study area
  • 3. Definition of the structural model
  • 4. Seismic zonation
  • 5. Method and results
  • 6. Discussions
  • Chapter 24. Regional application of the NDSHA approach for continental seismogenic sources in the Iberian Peninsula
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. NDSHA application at regional scale
  • 3. Seismicity in the Iberian Peninsula
  • 4. Application of NDSHA in the Iberian Peninsula
  • 5. NDSHA results
  • 6. Conclusions
  • Chapter 25. NDSHA applied to China
  • 1. Continental earthquakes and disaster risk: challenges and scientific problems
  • 2. Earthquake forecast/prediction in China: scientific practices and products
  • 3. NDSHA applied to China
  • 4. Discussion and future perspectives
  • Chapter 26. Application of neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment to India
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. NDSHA application at national scale
  • 3. NDSHA application at regional scale
  • 4. NDSHA application at local scale (seismic microzonation)
  • 5. Conclusion
  • Chapter 27. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Pakistan
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Input data
  • 3. Methodology
  • 4. Results
  • 5. Comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps
  • 6. Conclusion
  • Chapter 28. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment studies for Bangladesh
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Seismic zoning map
  • 3. NDSHA studies at national scale
  • 4. NDSHA studies for scenario earthquakes
  • 5. NDSHA studies for scenario earthquakes using maximum credible seismic input method
  • 6. Conclusions
  • Chapter 29. Application of NDSHA at regional and local scale in Iran
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. NDSHA for Alborz region
  • 3. Local NDSHA validation in Tehran city
  • 4. Conclusion
  • Chapter 30. Application of neodeterministic seismic hazard analysis to Sumatra
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Regional scale NDSHA for Sumatra
  • 3. Local scale NDSHA—application to Banda Aceh city
  • 4. Discussion and conclusions
  • Author Index
  • Subject Index

Product details

  • No. of pages: 672
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Elsevier 2021
  • Published: May 21, 2021
  • Imprint: Elsevier
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128235034
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128235416

About the Editors

Giuliano Panza

Giuliano F. Panza is former Full Professor of Geophysics, Trieste University, Head SAND Group Abdus Salam ICTP Trieste, co-funded with Academician Vladimir Keilis-Borok; Dr.H.C. Bucharest University; Emeritus Honorary Professor at IGG-CEA, and Honorary Professor at BUCEA, China. Mr. Zhao Ming, Deputy Director CEA of Department International Cooperation welcomed him as Marco Polo in Seismology. He is a member of Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze detta dei XL, Academia Europaea, Russian Academy of Sciences, TWAS Academy, and a recipient of the EGU Beno Gutenberg medal, AGU International award, Premio Linceo ANL, Central European Initiative Medal of Honour, Commemorative Medal VAST, Medal of Honor NRIAG Egypt; 5th Class/Knight-OMRI for very high scientific merits, and is widely recognized for his links to fundamental results in geophysics with implications of great interest for the community. In 2009, he delivered the Lectio Magistralis opening Trieste University Academic year, attended by Chamber of Deputies President. His research interests include earthquake prediction and hazards, and geodynamics, and he has an h-index (Scopus) of 46.

Affiliations and Expertise

Giuliano F. Panza, former Full Professor of Geophysics, Trieste University and Head SAND Group Abdus Salam ICTP Trieste, is Emeritus Honorary professor CEA Beijing, Honorary professor BUCEA Beijing.

Vladimir Kossobokov

Vladimir Kossobokov is Past Vice President of the IUGG Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability with an MS in Mathematics, Department of Mechanics and Mathematics, Moscow State University gained in 1975. Months before graduation he joined Vladimir Keilis-Borok (at that time Professor at Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of Sciences) to work on pattern recognition of highly earthquake-prone areas. Their fruitful collaboration lasted for decades, and since then Professor Kossobokov has played a pioneering role in design and testing reproducible methods for earthquake prediction, hazards, and risks assessment based on global and regional geophysical databases through exploratory data analysis, pattern recognition, and applied mathematical statistics. His fundamental contributions have led to formulation of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, with the launching in 1992 of the on-going real-time intermediate-term earthquake prediction experiment that eventually confirmed (with a statistical confidence above 99%) the predictability of the world’s largest earthquakes, a better understanding of climates in Europe, and solar–terrestrial interactions.

Affiliations and Expertise

Vladimir G. Kossobokov is a Chief Scientist at Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and former Vice President of the IUGG Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability.

Efraim Laor

Efraim Laor received his PhD in Policy, Strategy and Administration of Large-Scale Emergency Situations (Disaster Management) from King’s College London. His work involves short and long-term strategic, operative, and tactical planning, as a member of think-tank teams that formulated conceptions for the “Emergencies and Battlefield of the Future.” He has ample operational experience, was the CO of the 7th Armored Brigade, IDF, and was involved in numerous search and rescue, relief, and reconstruction missions in Israel and abroad in response to and recovery from earthquakes, tsunami, floods, typhoon, cyclone, fires, NaTech, HoTech, pandemia, nuclear disasters, and civil strife. He has been invited as lecturer and keynote speaker at numerous conferences, seminars, and training events.

Affiliations and Expertise

Chief Scientist at AFRAN—National Research Institute for Disaster Reduction, HIT. Former Chairman, GoI Permanent National Steering Committee for Disaster Reduction. CEO, “Fast Israeli Rescue & Search Team [F.I.R.S.T.]” (12 units; 7600 SAR call-outs). Team-Member, United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination [UNDAC]. Head and Lecturer, “Geography of Disaster Areas,” Masters and PhD Program, University of Haifa.

Benedetto DeVivo

Benedetto De Vivo, after graduation (1971) from the University of Naples Federico II in Geological Sciences and military service (1972), worked for private companies operating in Italy, Africa, and Central America in the field of ore deposits, geochemical prospecting, environmental geology, and hydrogeology (1973–1977). Later, he was a Researcher at CNR-Roma, Italy (1977–1987), Associate Professor in Applied Geochemistry (1987–2000), and Full Professor in Geochemistry at the University of Napoli Federico II (2000–2017). He was a research fellow at the Colorado School of Mines (1978) and at US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (1982 and 1992); Chairman of the Working Group “Inclusions in Minerals” of the International Mineralogical Association; Member of the Editorial Board of GEEA (2004–2007), Minerology and Petrol (1997–2007), American Mineralogist, and Chief Editor of Journal of Geochemical Exploration (2007–2017). His research interests span a wide range of topics including geochemical prospecting, fluid and melt inclusions studies on volcanic and sub-volcanic systems, and environmental geochemistry. He has published about 300 papers (in top international peer-reviewed journals), editing different special volumes (Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, European Journal of Mineralogy, Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, and, Minerology and Petrol), and has authored four text books (in Italian) in geochemical prospecting and environmental geochemistry. He was nominated (2001) as Fellow of the Mineralogical Society of America and appointed as an Adjunct Professor at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA (2006), Nanjing University, China (2016), and Hubei Polytechnic University, Huansgshi, China (2019). He was the recipient of the 2019 Gold Medal Award of the Association of Applied Geochemists for outstanding scientific contributions and achievement in applied geochemistry.

Affiliations and Expertise

Benedetto De Vivo is a full professor of Exploration and Environmental Geochemistry at Pegaso On-Line University, Napoli, Italy; Adjunct Professor at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA; Nanjing Univ. and Hubei Polytecnic Univ, Huangshi, China.

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  • Giulio B. Fri Nov 18 2022

    An excellent message for a safer future

    “Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure:Neo-Deterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure”,edited by Giuliano F. Panza, Vladimir G. Kossobokov, Efraim Laor and Benedetto De Vivo, is a rich volume containing 30 contributions from 56 authors.The contributions, coming from scholars from all over the world, exhaustively illustrate the state of the art to date of seismic hazard assessment, topic directly connected to the issues of disaster prediction and disaster preparedness.Collecting case studies from all over the world,the book is a right mix of theoretical and empirical contributions and local applications of the theories enunciated.In a historical moment afflicted by the growing number of disasters caused by climate change, the issue of disasters caused by earthquakes or other natural phenomena not directly attributable to the climate often takes a back seat. However, it cannot be ignored how the growing urbanization and densification of many fragile areas risks making the theme of earthquakes unfortunately always on the agenda.The main merit of the volume is to harmonize the voice of its 56 contributors, who basically all agree not to underestimate the seismic danger, anywhere in the world, and to promote more prudential models such as the NDSHA at a time when safety codes are still anchored to obsolete and therefore dangerous systems.The message of the book is to continue to study what is underground, to better prepare life on the surface.