Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure

Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure

Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure

1st Edition - May 21, 2021
  • Editors: Giuliano Panza, Vladimir Kossobokov, Efraim Laor, Benedetto DeVivo
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128235034
  • eBook ISBN: 9780128235416

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Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure: Neodeterministic (NDSHA) Approach Guarantees Prevention Rather Than Cure communicates in one comprehensive volume the state-of-the-art scientific knowledge on earthquakes and related risks. Earthquakes occur in a seemingly random way and, in some cases, it is possible to trace seismicity back to the concept of deterministic chaos. Therefore, seismicity can be explained by a deterministic mechanism that arises as a result of various convection movements in the Earth’s mantle, expressed in the modern movement of lithospheric plates fueled by tidal forces. Consequently, to move from a perspective focused on the response to emergencies to a new perspective based on prevention and sustainability, it is necessary to follow this neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) to guarantee prevention, saving lives and infrastructure. This book describes in a complete and consistent way an effective explanation to complex structures, systems, and components, and prescribes solutions to practical challenges. It reflects the scientific novelty and promises a feasible, workable, theoretical and applicative attitude. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure serves a “commentary role” for developers and designers of critical infrastructure and unique installations. Commentary-like roles follow standard, where there is no standard. Mega-installations embody/potentiate risks; nonetheless, lack a comprehensive classic standard. Every compound is unique, one of its kind, and differs from others even of similar function. There is no justification to elaborate a common standard for unique entities. On the other hand, these specific installations, for example, NPPs, Naval Ports, Suez Canal, HazMat production sites, and nuclear waste deposits, impose security and safety challenges to people and the environment. The book offers a benchmark for entrepreneurs, designers, constructors, and operators on how to compile diverse relevant information on site-effects and integrate it into the best-educated guess to keep safe and secure, people and environment. The authors are eager to convey the entire information and explanations to our readers, without missing either accurate information or explanations. That is achieved by “miniaturization,” as much is possible, not minimization. So far, the neodeterministic method has been successfully applied in numerous metropolitan areas and regions such as Delhi (India), Beijing (China), Naples (Italy), Algiers (Algeria), Cairo (Egypt), Santiago de Cuba (Cuba), Thessaloniki (Greece), South-East Asia (2004), Tohoku, Japan (2011), Albania (2019), Bangladesh, Iran, Sumatra, Ecuador, and elsewhere. Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure includes case studies from these areas, as well as suggested applications to other seismically active areas around the globe. NDSHA approaches confirm/validate that science is looming to warn. Concurrently, leaders and practitioners have to learn to use rectified science in favor of peoples' safety. State-of-the-art science does have the know-how to reduce casualties and structural damage from potential catastrophes to a bearable incident.  

Key Features

  • The only book to cover earthquake prediction and preparation from a neo-deterministic (NDSHA) approach
  • Includes case studies from metropolitan areas where the neo-deterministic method has been successfully applied
  • Editors and authors include top experts in academia, disaster prevention, and preparedness management


    The book is essential reading for geophysicists, geochemists, exploration geologists, seismologists, volcanologists, most categories of engineers from civil to mechanical, from chemical to computer, from bio-medical to electrical; disaster managers, emergency managers, high-ranking officials with governmental and municipality echelons, logistic officers of military services, infrastructure entrepreneurs, financial and insurance industry employees, multidisciplinary students, researchers, and university professors.

    Table of Contents

    • 1. Hazard, risks, and prediction 
      Vladimir Kossobokov
      2. Seismic hazard assessment from the perspective of disaster prevention 
      Jens-Uwe Klugel
      3. The view of a structural engineer about reliable seismic hazard assessment
      Paolo Rugarli
      4. Disaster prediction and civil preparedness 
      Efraim Laor and Benedetto De Vivo
      5. The integration between seismology and geodesy for intermediate-term narrow-range earthquake prediction according to NDSHA
      Mattia Crespi, Vladimir Kossobokov, Antonella Peresan and Giuliano F. Panza
      6. Modeling the block-and-fault structure dynamics with application to studying seismicity and geodynamics 
      Alexander Soloviev
      7. Morphostructural zoning for identifying earthquake-prone areas 
      Alexander Gorshkov and Alexander Soloviev
      8. Earthquake forecasting and time- dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in Italy and surroundings 
      Antonella Peresan and Leontina Romashkova
      9. Spreading NDSHA application from Italy to other areas 
      Fabio Romanelli, Giorgio Altin and Maurizio Indirli
      10. S-wave velocity profiling for site response evaluation in urban areas 
      Maria Rosaria Costanzo and Concettina Nunziata
      11. A user-friendly approach to NDSHA computations 
      Franco Vaccari and Andrea Magrin
      12. Recent applications of NDSHA: seismic input for high rise buildings in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital 
      Mohamed N. Elgabry, Hany M. Hassan and Hesham Hussein
      13. Neodeterministic method to assess the seismic performance of water distribution networks 
      Gian Paolo Cimellaro, Melissa De Iuliis and Sebastiano Marasco
      14. Seismic hazard analysis in a historical context: experience at caltrans and elsewhere 
      Lalliana Mualchin
      15. Where there is no science - probabilistic hazard assessment in volcanological and nuclear waste settings: facts, needs, and challenges in Italy
      Benedetto De Vivo, Efraim Laor and Giuseppe Rolandi
      16. Seismic hazard and earthquake engineering for engineering community
      Junbo Jia
      17. Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis and its applications in the central United States
      Zhenming Wang, Seth N. Carpenter and Edward W. Woolery
      18. NDSHA achievements in Central and South-eastern Europe 
      Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva, Carmen Cioflan, Ivanka Paskaleva and Giuliano F. Panza
      19. Application of NDSHA to historical urban areas 
      Concettina Nunziata and Maria Rosaria Costanzo
      20. Insights from neo-deterministic seismic hazard analyses in Romania 
      Carmen Ortanza Cioflan, Elena Florinela Manea and Bogdan Felix Apostol
      21. NDSHA in Bulgaria 
      Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva, Ivanka Paskaleva and Giuliano F. Panza
      22. NDSHA-based vulnerability evaluation of precode buildings in Republic of North Macedonia: Novel
      Elena Dumova-Jovanoska and Kristina Milkova
      23. Seismic characterization of Tiranae DurrëseLezha region (northwestern Albania) and analysis effort through NSHDA method
      Sokol Marku, Rapo Ormeni and Giuliano F. Panza
      24. Regional application of the NDSHA approach for continental seismogenic sources in the Iberian Peninsula
      Mariano García-Fernández, Franco Vaccari, María-José Jiménez, Andrea Magrin, Fabio Romanelli and Giuliano F. Panza
      25. NDSHA applied to China
      Yan Zhang, Lihua Fang, Fabio Romanelli,Zhifeng Ding, Shanghua Gao, Changsheng, Jiang and Zhongliang Wu
      26. Application of neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment to India 
      Imtiyaz A. Parvez
      27. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Pakistan 
      Farhana Sarwar, Franco Vaccari and Andrea Magrin
      28. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment studies for Bangladesh 
      Tahmeed M. Al-Hussaini, Ishika N. Chowdhury, Hasan al Faysal, Sudipta Chakraborty, Franco Vaccari, Fabio Romanelli and Andrea Magrin
      29. Application of NDSHA at regional and local scale in Iran 
      Habib Rahimi and Mehdi Rastgoo
      30. Application of neodeterministic seismic hazard analysis to Sumatra 
      Irwandi Irwandi

    Product details

    • No. of pages: 672
    • Language: English
    • Copyright: © Elsevier 2021
    • Published: May 21, 2021
    • Imprint: Elsevier
    • Paperback ISBN: 9780128235034
    • eBook ISBN: 9780128235416

    About the Editors

    Giuliano Panza

    Giuliano F. Panza is former Full Professor of Geophysics, Trieste University, Head SAND Group Abdus Salam ICTP Trieste, co-funded with Academician Vladimir Keilis-Borok; Dr.H.C. Bucharest University; Emeritus Honorary Professor at IGG-CEA, and Honorary Professor at BUCEA, China. Mr. Zhao Ming, Deputy Director CEA of Department International Cooperation welcomed him as Marco Polo in Seismology. He is a member of Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Accademia Nazionale delle Scienze detta dei XL, Academia Europaea, Russian Academy of Sciences, TWAS Academy, and a recipient of the EGU Beno Gutenberg medal, AGU International award, Premio Linceo ANL, Central European Initiative Medal of Honour, Commemorative Medal VAST, Medal of Honor NRIAG Egypt; 5th Class/Knight-OMRI for very high scientific merits, and is widely recognized for his links to fundamental results in geophysics with implications of great interest for the community. In 2009, he delivered the Lectio Magistralis opening Trieste University Academic year, attended by Chamber of Deputies President. His research interests include earthquake prediction and hazards, and geodynamics, and he has an h-index (Scopus) of 46.

    Affiliations and Expertise

    Giuliano F. Panza, former Full Professor of Geophysics, Trieste University and Head SAND Group Abdus Salam ICTP Trieste, is Emeritus Honorary professor CEA Beijing, Honorary professor BUCEA Beijing.

    Vladimir Kossobokov

    Vladimir Kossobokov is Past Vice President of the IUGG Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability with an MS in Mathematics, Department of Mechanics and Mathematics, Moscow State University gained in 1975. Months before graduation he joined Vladimir Keilis-Borok (at that time Professor at Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of Sciences) to work on pattern recognition of highly earthquake-prone areas. Their fruitful collaboration lasted for decades, and since then Professor Kossobokov has played a pioneering role in design and testing reproducible methods for earthquake prediction, hazards, and risks assessment based on global and regional geophysical databases through exploratory data analysis, pattern recognition, and applied mathematical statistics. His fundamental contributions have led to formulation of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, with the launching in 1992 of the on-going real-time intermediate-term earthquake prediction experiment that eventually confirmed (with a statistical confidence above 99%) the predictability of the world’s largest earthquakes, a better understanding of climates in Europe, and solar–terrestrial interactions.

    Affiliations and Expertise

    Vladimir G. Kossobokov is a Chief Scientist at Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and former Vice President of the IUGG Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability.

    Efraim Laor

    Efraim Laor received his PhD in Policy, Strategy and Administration of Large-Scale Emergency Situations (Disaster Management) from King’s College London. His work involves short and long-term strategic, operative, and tactical planning, as a member of think-tank teams that formulated conceptions for the “Emergencies and Battlefield of the Future.” He has ample operational experience, was the CO of the 7th Armored Brigade, IDF, and was involved in numerous search and rescue, relief, and reconstruction missions in Israel and abroad in response to and recovery from earthquakes, tsunami, floods, typhoon, cyclone, fires, NaTech, HoTech, pandemia, nuclear disasters, and civil strife. He has been invited as lecturer and keynote speaker at numerous conferences, seminars, and training events.

    Affiliations and Expertise

    Chief Scientist at AFRAN—National Research Institute for Disaster Reduction, HIT. Former Chairman, GoI Permanent National Steering Committee for Disaster Reduction. CEO, “Fast Israeli Rescue & Search Team [F.I.R.S.T.]” (12 units; 7600 SAR call-outs). Team-Member, United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination [UNDAC]. Head and Lecturer, “Geography of Disaster Areas,” Masters and PhD Program, University of Haifa.

    Benedetto DeVivo

    Benedetto De Vivo, after graduation (1971) from the University of Naples Federico II in Geological Sciences and military service (1972), worked for private companies operating in Italy, Africa, and Central America in the field of ore deposits, geochemical prospecting, environmental geology, and hydrogeology (1973–1977). Later, he was a Researcher at CNR-Roma, Italy (1977–1987), Associate Professor in Applied Geochemistry (1987–2000), and Full Professor in Geochemistry at the University of Napoli Federico II (2000–2017). He was a research fellow at the Colorado School of Mines (1978) and at US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (1982 and 1992); Chairman of the Working Group “Inclusions in Minerals” of the International Mineralogical Association; Member of the Editorial Board of GEEA (2004–2007), Minerology and Petrol (1997–2007), American Mineralogist, and Chief Editor of Journal of Geochemical Exploration (2007–2017). His research interests span a wide range of topics including geochemical prospecting, fluid and melt inclusions studies on volcanic and sub-volcanic systems, and environmental geochemistry. He has published about 300 papers (in top international peer-reviewed journals), editing different special volumes (Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, European Journal of Mineralogy, Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, and, Minerology and Petrol), and has authored four text books (in Italian) in geochemical prospecting and environmental geochemistry. He was nominated (2001) as Fellow of the Mineralogical Society of America and appointed as an Adjunct Professor at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA (2006), Nanjing University, China (2016), and Hubei Polytechnic University, Huansgshi, China (2019). He was the recipient of the 2019 Gold Medal Award of the Association of Applied Geochemists for outstanding scientific contributions and achievement in applied geochemistry.

    Affiliations and Expertise

    Benedetto De Vivo is a full professor of Exploration and Environmental Geochemistry at Pegaso On-Line University, Napoli, Italy; Adjunct Professor at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA; Nanjing Univ. and Hubei Polytecnic Univ, Huangshi, China.