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Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters
1st Edition - June 16, 2014
Editor: Rasoul Sorkhabi
Language: English
Hardback ISBN:9780123948489
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 3 9 4 8 4 8 - 9
eBook ISBN:9780123964724
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 3 9 6 4 7 2 - 4
Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters presents the latest scientific developments and reviews of research addressing seismic hazard and seismic risk, including causality rates, im…Read more
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Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters presents the latest scientific developments and reviews of research addressing seismic hazard and seismic risk, including causality rates, impacts on society, preparedness, insurance and mitigation. The current controversies in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction are addressed from different points of view. Basic tools for understanding the seismic risk and to reduce it, like paleoseismology, remote sensing, and engineering are discussed.
Contains contributions from expert seismologists, geologists, engineers and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board
Presents the latest research on seismic hazard and risk assessment, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation
Includes numerous illustrations, maps, diagrams and tables addressing earthquake risk reduction
Features new insights and reviews of earthquake prediction, forecasting and early warning, as well as basic tools to deal with earthquake risk
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction to Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters: Why a Book on Earthquake Problems Now?
Chapter 1. Remote Sensing for Disaster Response: A Rapid, Image-Based Perspective
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Remote Sensing and Disaster Response
1.3. Limitations, Uncertainties, and Best Practice
1.4. Conclusions
Chapter 2. The Capabilities of Earth Observation to Contribute along the Risk Cycle
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Capabilities of Remote Sensing for Assessing and Mapping Earthquake Risk and Damage
2.3. Conclusion and Inferring Suggestions for EO on Earthquake Analysis
Chapter 3. Disaster-Risk Reduction through the Training of Masons and Public Information Campaigns: Experience of SDC’s “Competence Centre for Reconstruction” in Haiti
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Context
3.3. Identification of the Most Appropriate Construction Technique
3.4. Identification of Partners for the Training of Masons
3.5. Development of Training Content and Training Setup
3.6. Adaptation of the Training to Varying Situations
3.7. A Public Information Campaign to Accompany the Training
3.8. Conclusion and Lessons to be Learned
Chapter 4. The Most Useful Countermeasure Against Giant Earthquakes and Tsunamis—What We Learned From Interviews of 164 Tsunami Survivors
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Locations of the Interview Cities and Characteristics of the Interviewees
4.3. Evacuation Behaviors
4.4. The Effect of the Current Technology for Disaster Prevention
4.5. Construction of Sea Embankments or Breakwaters in the Bay
4.6. Discussions on the Effect of the Breakwaters
4.7. Role of Elementary Schools in Disaster Prevention
4.8. Conclusion
Chapter 5. Aggravated Earthquake Risk in South Asia: Engineering versus Human Nature
5.1. Introduction: Hazard, Risk, and Aggravated Risk
5.2. Statistics of Earthquake Fatalities
5.3. Problems Associated with Assessments of Seismic Hazards
5.4. A Summary of Earthquake Hazards in and Surrounding the Indian Plate
5.5. Conservatism and Denial as Aggravated Risk
5.6. Earthquake Knowledge and Its Application
5.7. Discussion—Who Gains, Who Loses
5.8. Conclusions
Chapter 6. Ten Years of Real-time Earthquake Loss Alerts
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Brief Review of the Methods
6.3. Brief Review of the Data Sets
6.4. Brief Review of the Services Provided
6.5. Error Sources
6.6. City Models
6.7. Basic Concepts
6.8. The Future of Real-time Estimates of Losses Due to Earthquakes
6.9. Discussion and Conclusions
Chapter 7. Forecasting Seismic Risk as an Earthquake Sequence Happens
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Seismic Risk
7.3. Forecasting Seismic Risk during the L'Aquila Sequence
7.4. Forecasting Seismic Risk for the SEISMO-12 Scenario Sequence
7.5. Discussion
Chapter 8. How to Render Schools Safe in Developing Countries?
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Earthquake Risk of Nepal
8.3. Seismic Vulnerability of Schools in Nepal
8.4. Reasons for High Seismic Vulnerability of Schools
8.5. Making Schools Safe Against Earthquakes
8.6. Implementation of an SESP
8.7. Lessons Learned
8.8. Conclusion
Chapter 9. The Socioeconomic Impact of Earthquake Disasters
9.1. Introduction
9.2. Development of a Database to Assess Socioeconomic Impacts of Earthquakes
9.3. Social Losses from Earthquakes from 1900 to 2012
9.4. Economic Losses from Earthquakes from 1900 to 2012
9.5. Conclusion
Chapter 10. The Contribution of Paleoseismology to Earthquake Hazard Evaluations
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Modern Techniques for Paleoearthquake Studies
10.3. Paleoseismology and Seismic Source Characterization
10.4. Case Studies with Longest Earthquake Records
10.5. Paleoearthquake Studies and Their Integration in SHA
10.6. Discussion—Conclusion
Chapter 11. The Role of Microzonation in Estimating Earthquake Risk
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Ground Motion Estimate at the Regional Scale
11.3. Local Site Response and Microzonation
11.4. Liquefaction
11.5. Case Histories of Some Indian Megacities
11.6. Influence of Microzonation Data on Risk Assessment
11.7. Conclusions
Chapter 12. Why are the Standard Probabilistic Methods of Estimating Seismic Hazard and Risks Too Often Wrong
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Theoretical Limits of PSHA
12.3. Practical Limits of PSHA
12.4. Possible Alternatives to PSHA: The Neo-deterministic Approach (NDSHA)
12.5. Performances of PSHA: The Validation Problem
12.6. Performance of NDSHA
12.7. Estimates of Seismic Risks
12.8. Summary and Conclusions
Chapter 13. The Continued Utility of Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment
13.1. Introduction
13.2. The Logic of PSHA
13.3. Nature of Recent Criticisms of PSHA
13.4. Advances in PSH Inputs
13.5. Future Needs
13.6. Conclusions
Chapter 14. Precarious Rocks: Providing Upper Limits on Past Ground Shaking from Earthquakes
14.1. Introduction
14.2. PBRs are Physical Objects That Put Long-Term Bounds on Past Ground Motions
14.3. Distribution of PBRs
14.4. Applications
14.5. Summary
Chapter 15. Quantifying Improvements in Earthquake-Rupture Forecasts through Testable Models
15.1. Introduction
15.2. Some Remarks about Earthquake Prediction
15.3. Forecast Models
15.4. Gridded Rate-Based Forecasts
15.5. Alarm-Based and Regional Forecasts
15.6. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Hybrid Models
15.7. Some Common Assumptions and Questions Posed by Earthquake Forecast Models
15.8. The Role of Testing Earthquake Occurrence Models
15.9. Developing Tests of Earthquake Forecast Models
15.10. Testing Methods
15.11. Gridded Rate-Based Testing
15.12. Alarm-Based Testing
15.13. Fault-Based Testing
15.14. Structured Testing
15.15. Testing Centers: Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
15.16. Problems and Solutions
15.17. Outlook and Conclusions
Chapter 16. Duties of Earthquake Forecast: Cases and Lessons in China
16.1. Introduction: (Mis)understanding Earthquake Forecast/Prediction in China
16.2. Earthquake Forecast/Prediction for Different Time Scales: Examples of Scientific Products and the Mechanism of Their Generation and Quality Control
16.3. Within the Limit of the Capability of Earthquake Forecast/Prediction: Roles of Time-dependent Seismic-Hazard Assessment in Seismic Risk Management
16.4. Decision-Making Issues of Earthquake Forecast/Prediction
16.5. Concluding Remarks and Discussion: Earthquake Forecast/Prediction as a Branch of “Modern” Science and Technology
Chapter 17. The Experience of Real-Time Earthquake Predictions on Kamchatka
17.1. Introduction
17.2. Seismicity and System of Observations
17.3. Real-Time Predictions for 1998–2012
17.4. Discussion
17.5. Precursors and Prediction of the 1997 Kronotsky Earthquake
17.6. Conclusion
Chapter 18. Times of Increased Probabilities for Occurrence of Catastrophic Earthquakes: 25 Years of Hypothesis Testing in Real Time
18.1. Introduction
18.2. Definition and Classification of Earthquake Predictions
18.3. Earthquake Prediction Algorithms M8 and MSc
18.4. Real-Time Predictions by the M8-MSc Algorithms
18.5. Global Test of the M8-MSc Predictions
18.6. Other M8 Algorithm Applications
18.7. Discussion and Conclusions
Chapter 19. Review of the Nationwide Earthquake Early Warning in Japan during Its First Five Years
19.1. Introduction
19.2. Operation of JMA EEW
19.3. Performance of JMA EEW
19.4. Feedback about EEW from the General Public
19.5. Summary and Remarks
Chapter 20. To What Extent Can Engineering Reduce Seismic Risk?
20.1. Introduction
20.2. Basic Definitions
20.3. Why Cannot Seismic Risk Be Eliminated Entirely?
20.4. Acceptable Seismic Risk
20.5. How Can Engineering Reduce Seismic Risk?
20.6. Who Should Apply Seismic Risk Mitigation Measures?
20.7. Earthquake Prediction
20.8. Conclusions
Chapter 21. Decision Making under Uncertainty: Insuring and Reinsuring Earthquake Risk
21.1. Introduction: Are Earthquakes Insurable?
21.2. Insurance Risk Management
21.3. Insurance and Reinsurance, Two Sides of the Same Coin?
21.4. Managing the Unknown, Insurance Risk Modeling
21.5. Earthquake Insurance, Has It Been Successful?
21.6. Government Earthquake Pools
21.7. Conclusion
Index
No. of pages: 606
Language: English
Edition: 1
Published: June 16, 2014
Imprint: Academic Press
Hardback ISBN: 9780123948489
eBook ISBN: 9780123964724
RS
Rasoul Sorkhabi
Rasoul Sorkhabi joined the Energy & Geoscience Institute and Department of Geology & Geophysics, University of Utah as a Research Professor in 2003. Prior to EGI, he worked for the Japan National Oil Corporation and Arizona State University. Rasoul holds B.Sc. and M.Sc.degrees in Geology from India and a Ph.D. in Geology from Japan. Rasoul has over two decades of academic and industry experience, and has worked on projects in various parts of the world, from the fold-and-thrust belts through Tethys and Gondwana to deepwater toe-thrusts. Focus regions include Asia and theMiddle East, Africa, and North America. Rasoul has served as a contributing editor and on the editorial board for numerous journals and committees and has published and presented hundreds of papers in leading journals and notable books.
Affiliations and expertise
Energy and Geoscience Institute and Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Utah, USA
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