Crime, the Police and Criminal Statistics

An Analysis of Official Statistics for England and Wales Using Econometric Methods

1st Edition - January 1, 1979

Authors: R. A. Carr-Hill, N. H. Stern

Editor: Peter H. Rossi

eBook ISBN:

9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 2 - 6 8 6 5 - 1

Crime, The Police and Criminal Statistics: An Analysis of Official Statistics for England and Wales Using Econometric Methods presents a study of the relation between official… Read more

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Crime, The Police and Criminal Statistics: An Analysis of Official Statistics for England and Wales Using Econometric Methods presents a study of the relation between official criminal statistics and the activities which they are supposed to reflect. The book is comprised of three sections: the theoretical background, the empirical argument, and certain implications of the study. The first section discusses the criminological, sociological, and economic theories under consideration in the light of available evidence, and their relevance to the countries and period of the study: England and Wales in the 1960s. The second section describes the techniques employed and the interpretations of the obtained results. The final section considers the examination of the use of official criminal statistics in discussions of policy; and the review of models of suitable or optimum strategies of punishment and deterrence. The monograph will be of interest to criminologists, economists, sociologists, and statisticians.

List of Tables

Preface

1 Introduction

2 The Factors Influencing the Level of Criminal Activity

2.0 Introduction

2.1 Some Methodological Preliminaries

2.2 The Incentives to Offend

2.3 Traditional Criminology and Socio-Demographic Factors

2.4 Concluding Remarks

Appendix: Offending as Behaviour Towards Risk

3 The Social Reactions to Criminality

3.0 Introduction

3.1 The Determination of the Detection Rate

3.2 The Level of Punishments

3.3 The Supply of and Demand for Police

3.4 The Nature of Criminal Statistics

3.5 Recording and Reporting

3.6 Changes in Police Organisation and Police-Public Relations and the Effect on Criminal Statistics

3.7 Concluding Remarks

4 The Model

4.0 Introduction

4.1 The Determination of the Rate of "Actual" Offences

4.2 The Determination of the Proportion of Offences Solved

4.3 The Determination of the Number of Policemen per Capita

4.4 Possible Determinants of the Level of Punishment

4.5 The Recording Problem

4.6 The Model

4.7 Missing Variables

4.8 An Introduction to the Identification Problem

4.9 Concluding Remarks

Appendix: A View of the Data

5 The Strategy of Testing a Social Theory

5.0 Introduction

5.1 The Estimation Procedures

5.2 The Identification Problem

5.3 The Full Model, Unobserved Variables and Further Discussion of Identification

5.4 Hypothesis Testing

5.5 The Variance-Covariance Matrix of Residuals

5.6 Some Concluding Remarks on our Estimation Procedures

6 Results

6.0 Introduction

6.1 The Appropriate Pooling of the Data

6.2 Testing Some Particular Coefficients

6.3 The Main Estimates

6.4 Alternative Models

6.5 Reduced Forms

6.6 Variance-Covariance Matrices

6.7 Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) Estimates

6.8 Crowding in the Household

6.9 Concluding Remarks

Appendix: Estimates of the "Full Model" and Correlation Coefficients

7 Interpreting the Results

7.0 Introduction

7.1 The Determination of the Detection Rate and the Number of Policemen

7.2 The Economic Factors in the Determination of Offences

7.3 The Recording Problem

7.4 Alternative Models

7.5 Some Concluding Remarks

8 Official Statistics, Recording and Policy

8.0 Introduction

8.1 The Labelling Hypothesis

8.2 Actual and Recorded Offences

8.3 Information and Public Discussion

8.4 The Misuse of Criminal Statistics

8.5 Information for Policy Making

8.6 Concluding Remarks

9 The Economic Approach to Crime and Punishment

9.0 Introduction

9.1 The Failings of the Cost-Benefit Approach

9.2 The Incorporation of Retribution into Policy Models

9.3 The Economic Theory of Externalities

9.4 Concluding Remarks

Appendix: Mathematical Models of Optimum Deterrence

10 Conclusions

10.0 Introduction

10.1 Statistical Method

10.2 The Results

10.3 The Police

10.4 Disaggregation

10.5 The Official Criminal Statistics

10.6 Externalities, Equity and Retribution

10.7 Possible Modifications to Our Model

10.3 Concluding Remarks

Data Appendix: Definitions and Sources

References

Name Index

Subject Index