Climate Vulnerability

Climate Vulnerability

Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources

1st Edition - March 15, 2013

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  • Editor-in-Chief: Roger A. Pielke
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780123847034
  • eBook ISBN: 9780123847041

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Climate change has been the subject of thousands of books and magazines, scientific journals, and newspaper articles daily. It’s a subject that can be very political and emotional, often blurring the lines between fact and fiction. The vast majority of research, studies, projections and recommendations tend to focus on the human influence on climate change and global warming as the result of CO2 emissions, often to the exclusion of other threats that include population growth and the stress placed on energy sources due to emerging global affluence. Climate Vulnerability, Five Volume Set seeks to strip away the politics and emotion that surround climate change and will assess the broad range of threats using the bottom up approach—including CO2 emissions, population growth, emerging affluence, and many others—to our five most critical resources: water, food, ecosystems, energy, and human health. Inclusively determining what these threats are while seeking preventive measures and adaptations is at the heart of this unique reference work.

Key Features

  • Takes a Bottom-Up approach, addressing climate change and the threat to our key resources at the local level first and globally second, providing a more accurate and inclusive approach.
  • Includes extensive cross-referencing, which is key to readers as new connections between factors can be discovered.
  • Cuts across a number of disciplines and will appeal to Biological Science, Earth & Environmental Science, Ecology, and Social Science, comprehensively addressing climate change and other threats to our key resources from multiple perspectives


Academic, Government and Corporatee Scientists and Researchers from the following disciplines: Life Sciences, Social Sciences, Food Science, Earth & Environmental Sciences, and Engineering, who are interested in climate change.

Table of Contents

  • Editor-in-Chief

    Volume Editors

    List of Contributors


    Volume 1: Vulnerability of Human Health to Climate


    Cross-cutting Threats to Human Health and Healthcare Systems

    1.01. Extreme Weather Events

    1.01.1 Introduction

    1.01.2 Extreme Weather Event Effects on Human Health

    1.01.3 At-Risk Populations

    1.01.4 Temperature Extremes

    1.01.5 Extreme Precipitation Events

    1.01.6 Extreme Wind Events

    1.01.7 Health Care Infrastructure and Emergency Preparedness

    1.01.8 Opportunities and Challenges for the Future


    1.02. Recognizing and Reducing the Threats to Human Health and Environmental Ecosystems from Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

    1.02.1 Introduction

    1.02.2 Atmospheric Chemistry and the Ozone Cycle

    1.02.3 The Chronology of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

    1.02.4 Direct versus Indirect Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion

    1.02.5 Ecosystem Effects of Excessive Ultraviolet Radiation

    1.02.6 Human Adaptive Strategies for Ozone Depletion and Excessive Ultraviolet Radiation

    1.02.7 Mitigation Strategies for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

    1.02.8 Conclusions


    1.03. Sea-Level Rise and Health


    1.03.1 Introduction

    1.03.2 Risk-Based Approach to the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Human Health

    1.03.3 Sea-Level Hazards

    1.03.4 The Assets and Their Vulnerability

    1.03.5 Risk Assessment

    1.03.6 Conclusions


    1.04. Impact of Environmental Change on Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being in Africa


    1.04.1 Introduction

    1.04.2 Environmental and Social Circumstances in Africa

    1.04.3 The Impact of Drought in Africa

    1.04.4 Land Use and Land Cover Change

    1.04.5 Invasive Species

    1.04.6 Historical Trajectories and Counter Narratives

    1.04.7 Future Research Challenges


    Relevant Websites

    1.05. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Climate, and Health


    1.05.1 Introduction: Our Growing Disconnection from Nature

    1.05.2 Psychological Benefits of Exposure to Nature

    1.05.3 Sacred Groves and Risks to the Sacred

    1.05.4 Ecosystem Services

    1.05.5 Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services

    1.05.6 Conclusion


    Relevant Websites

    Climate Change Health Effects, Risks & Impacts

    1.06. What Have We Learned about Climate Variability and Human Health?

    1.06.1 Introduction

    1.06.2 Social Vulnerability to Climate and Other Ongoing Changes

    1.06.3 Climate and Human Health

    1.06.4 Water and Human Health

    1.06.5 Human Health, Food, and Nutrition

    1.06.6 Heat Waves

    1.06.7 Vector-Borne Disease

    1.06.8 Methods

    1.06.9 Results and Discussion

    1.06.10 Conclusions


    1.07. Food, Nutrition, and Public Health

    1.07.1 Introduction

    1.07.2 Malnutrition

    1.07.3 The Impacts of Social, Environmental, and Economic Determinants on Food, Nutrition, and Public Health

    1.07.4 Food Security

    1.07.5 Impacts on Agriculture

    1.07.6 Water and Agriculture

    1.07.7 Potential Risk of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Agriculture: the Example of India

    1.07.8 Inequalities in Food Security

    1.07.9 Fish Stocks

    1.07.10 Livestock

    1.07.11 International Policy Impacts

    1.07.12 Food Safety

    1.07.13 Vulnerability and Adaptation

    1.07.14 Regional Sensitivity

    1.07.15 The Role of Farmers in Adaptation and Mitigation


    1.08. Heat-Related Mortality

    1.08.1 Introduction

    1.08.2 Heat Waves and Their Impact on Health

    1.08.3 Methods for Characterizing the Temperature–Health Relationship

    1.08.4 Determinants of Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality

    1.08.5 Risk Assessment for Current and Future Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality

    1.08.6 Implications for Public Health and Environmental Policy

    1.08.7 Conclusions

    See also


    Relevant Websites

    1.09. Climate, Urban Air Pollution, and Respiratory Allergy

    1.09.1 Introduction

    1.09.2 Pollen and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

    1.09.3 Air Pollution and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

    1.09.4 Possible Effects of Climate on Respiratory Allergy

    1.09.5 Case Study: ‘Thunderstorm Asthma’

    1.09.6 Conclusions


    1.10. Precipitation and Flood Hazards: Health Effects, Risks, and Impacts

    1.10.1 Precipitation and Flood Risk

    1.10.2 Health Impacts of Floods and High Rainfall

    1.10.3 Health Impacts of Low Rainfall


    1.11. HIV/AIDS Disease Burden Complex in South Africa: Impact on Health and Environmental Resources, and Vulnerability to Climate

    1.11.1 Introduction

    1.11.2 Characteristics of South Africa’s History That Lend Itself Favorably to the Spread of HIV and Urban and Rural Environmental Sensitivity

    1.11.3 Multiple Ramifications of HIV Disease Burden Complex

    1.11.4 Concepts of Vulnerability in the Context of HIV and Climate

    1.11.5 Origin of HIV and Its Propagation in Context of Changing Human Demographics and Environmental Vulnerabilities

    1.11.6 Characteristics of the Key Preconditions Contributing to Current Vulnerabilities in South Africa, Status and Trends

    1.11.7 HIV-Induced Human and Environmental Vulnerabilities and Effects of Climate

    1.11.8 Adaptation

    1.11.9 Conclusion



    1.12. Occupational Health and Safety Impacts of Climate Conditions


    1.12.1 Introduction

    1.12.2 Current Climate and Ongoing Climate Trends

    1.12.3 Different Occupational Health Effects of Climate Variables

    1.12.4 Excessive Heat Exposure as a Special Occupational Health Hazard

    1.12.5 Occupational Health and Productivity Effects of Heat Exposures

    1.12.6 Measuring Heat Stress and Strain

    1.12.7 Occupational Health Standards and Guidelines

    1.12.8 Reported Experiences of Workplace Heat Exposures and Effects

    1.12.9 Estimated Impacts on Occupational Health of a Subset of Projected Future Climate Change with Increasing Heat Exposures

    1.12.10 Methods to Reduce Heat Exposures and Effects

    1.12.11 Conclusions

    See also

    References and Proposed Additional Reading

    Relevant Websites

    1.13. Cold-Related Mortality and Morbidity

    1.13.1 Introduction

    1.13.2 Cold-Related Health

    1.13.3 Risk Factors for Cold-Related Mortality and Morbidity

    1.13.4 Adaptations

    1.13.5 Implications of Public Health Policy

    1.13.6 Conclusions


    Useful Websites

    Case Studies: Addressing Vulnerabilities and Reducing Risks

    1.14. Vulnerable States: Pacific Island Countries


    1.14.1 Introduction

    1.14.2 Climate Change: Determinants of Vulnerability

    1.14.3 Pacific Island Exposure to Climate Change

    1.14.4 Pacific Island Sensitivity to Climate Change

    1.14.5 Pacific Island Potential Impacts of Climate Change

    1.14.6 Pacific Island Adaptive Capacity

    1.14.7 Pacific Island Vulnerability to Climate Change

    1.14.8 Case Study: Food Security – Linking the Food, Nutrition, Health, and Climate Nexus in Vulnerable Countries – The Pacific Islands

    1.14.9 Summary

    1.14.10 Adaptive Strategies

    See also


    Relevant Websites

    1.15. Vulnerability and Health: Exploring the Linkages in a Case Study from Southern Africa

    1.15.1 Introduction

    1.15.2 Vulnerability to Climate

    1.15.3 Climate and Health

    1.15.4 Health and Vulnerability to Climate

    1.15.5 A Case Study from Southern Africa

    1.15.6 Conclusion


    Relevant Websites

    Volume 2: Vulnerability of Food Resources to Climate


    Crop Agriculture

    2.01. Advances, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities for Corn: A Perspective from Iowa

    2.01.1 Introduction

    2.01.2 Advances in Corn Production in the US Corn Belt

    2.01.3 Vulnerabilities

    2.01.4 Opportunities and Concerns


    2.02. Soybean

    2.02.1 Introduction

    2.02.2 Background

    2.02.3 Warming Temperature

    2.02.4 Drought

    2.02.5 Atmospheric CO2

    2.02.6 Tropospheric Ozone

    2.02.7 Climate Factor Interactions and Yield

    2.02.8 Conclusion


    2.03. Climate Impact Analysis and Adaptations for Sustainable Rice Production System

    2.03.1 Introduction

    2.03.2 Constraints in Rice Production

    2.03.3 Use of Crop Models for Yield Prediction

    2.03.4 Climate Adaptation

    2.03.5 Water Management


    2.04. Understanding the Impacts of Climate on Perennial Crops


    2.04.1 Introduction

    2.04.2 Climate Vulnerability of Perennial Crop Production

    2.04.3 Nonclimatic Contributions to Vulnerability

    2.04.4 Methods and Models for Assessing Climate Impacts on Perennial Crops

    2.04.5 Perennial Crop Production and Historical Climate Variability

    2.04.6 CO2 Fertilization

    2.04.7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Perennial Crops

    2.04.8 Adaptation Options

    2.04.9 Next Steps

    2.04.10 Summary



    Relevant Websites

    2.05. Role of Engineering Plants for Abiotic Stresses


    2.05.1 Plant Breeding: A Science for Change

    2.05.2 Climatic Impacts on Crops

    2.05.3 Advancements in Engineering Plants for Tolerance to Abiotic Stresses

    2.05.4 Challenges of Breeding for Climate Variability


    Relevant Websites

    2.06. Climate Vulnerabilities and Wheat Production


    2.06.1 Introduction

    2.06.2 Climate across Wheat Megaenvironments

    2.06.3 Climate and Wheat Production in China

    2.06.4 Climate and Wheat Production in India

    2.06.5 Conclusion


    Fishery and Animal Agriculture

    2.07. International Fisheries and Climate Change


    2.08. Climate Vulnerabilities of the Poultry Industry

    2.08.1 Introduction

    2.08.2 Contribution to Climate

    2.08.3 Vulnerabilities

    2.08.4 Resource Competition

    2.08.5 Diseases and Pests

    2.08.6 Mitigation Opportunities

    2.08.7 Conclusion


    Relevant Websites

    2.09. Climate Vulnerabilities of the Swine Industry

    2.09.1 Introduction

    2.09.2 GHG Emissions

    2.09.3 Disease

    2.09.4 Reactive Nitrogen Loss during Swine Production and Waste Management

    2.09.5 Diet Implications

    2.09.6 Mitigation Opportunities

    2.09.7 Conclusion



    2.10. Vulnerability of Mediterranean Agricultural Systems to Climate: From Regional to Field Scale Analysis

    2.10.1 Introduction

    2.10.2 Climate in the Mediterranean Region

    2.10.3 The Impacts on Water and Soil Resources

    2.10.4 Farmers’ Responses to Climate

    2.10.5 The Effects on Cropping Systems

    2.10.6 Conclusion


    Relevant Websites

    2.11. Freshwater Wetlands: Balancing Food and Water Security with Resilience of Ecological and Social Systems

    2.11.1 Introduction

    2.11.2 Wetlands as Complex Systems

    2.11.3 Wetlands: Functions and Services

    2.11.4 Policies to Prevent Wetland Losses: US Case Study

    2.11.5 Paths to Wetland Restoration

    2.11.6 Summary


    Agroeconomies Case Studies

    2.12. Food Security Implications of Climate Variability and Climate Change

    2.12.1 Introduction

    2.12.2 Methods

    2.12.3 Results



    2.13. Assessing Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Approaches: Useful to Usable Tools

    2.13.1 Introduction

    2.13.2 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity

    2.13.3 Literature Review: Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, and Climate Information

    2.13.4 Assessing Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities

    2.13.5 Methods

    2.13.6 Case Study: Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Enhance Usability of Climate Information in the North Central Region of the United States

    2.13.7 Conclusion


    2.14. Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change


    2.14.1 Introduction

    2.14.2 Profile of Agriculture Sector in India

    2.14.3 Existing Vulnerabilities

    2.14.4 Impacts of Climate on Agriculture

    2.14.5 Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation

    2.14.6 Concluding Remarks


    Relevant Websites

    2.15. Response of the Amazon Tropical Forests to Deforestation, Climate, and Extremes, and the Occurrence of Drought and Fire

    2.15.1 Introduction

    2.15.2 Deforestation

    2.15.3 Climate

    2.15.4 Climate Extreme Events and Forest Response

    2.15.5 Factors of Forest Resilience

    2.15.6 Changes in the Equilibrium State – Savannization

    2.15.7 Synergistic Effect of Deforestation, Drought, and Fire – Are We Close to a Tipping Point?

    2.15.8 Conclusions


    2.16. Blending Local Scale Information for Developing Agricultural Resilience in Ethiopia

    2.16.1 Introduction

    2.16.2 Methods and Data

    2.16.3 Results

    2.16.4 Summary and Discussion


    Volume 3: Vulnerability of Energy to Climate

    Energy Resources and Policy Under Climate Change Conditions


    Resources and Resource Availability

    3.01. Climate and Energy Vulnerability in Coastal Regions: The Case for US Pacific and Northeast Corridor Coastal Regions


    3.01 Introduction

    3.01.2 Energy Trends in California

    3.01.3 Energy Demand Trends in the Northeast Corridor

    3.01.4 Temperature Trends Analysis

    3.01.5 Summary



    3.02. Energy Resources and Policy: Vulnerability of Energy Resources and Resource Availability – Fossil Fuels (Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Oil Shale)

    3.02.1 Introduction

    3.02.2 Vulnerability to Temperature Change

    3.02.3 Weather Extremes

    3.02.4 Sea Level Rise

    3.02.5 Mitigation Strategies

    3.02.6 Adaptation

    3.02.7 Social Impacts

    3.02.8 Systemic Impacts

    3.02.9 Conclusions


    3.03. Renewable Energy Resources – Onshore/Offshore Wind Energy


    3.03.1 Introduction

    3.03.2 The Wind Resource and Related Electrical Power Generation

    3.03.3 The Technological and Policy-Related Challenges for Wind Energy Integration

    3.03.4 Climate and Wind Energy

    3.03.5 Conclusions


    Relevant Websites

    3.04. Renewable Energy Resources – Ocean Energy: Wind–Wave–Tidal–Sea Currents


    3.04.1 Introduction and Objectives of This Chapter

    3.04.2 Resource Estimates and Status of Deployment

    3.04.3 How Might Changes in Climate Statistics Influence Ocean Renewable Energy?

    3.04.4 Concluding Remarks



    3.05. Biomass

    3.05.1 Introduction

    3.05.2 Rationale for Biofuels

    3.05.3 Sources of Biofuels

    3.05.4 Biofuels and Climate

    3.05.5 Summary


    3.06. Vulnerability of Solar Energy Resources under Climate Variability

    3.06.1 Introduction

    3.06.2 Energy Is Key

    3.06.3 Energy Scope

    3.06.4 Uncertainty Scope

    3.06.5 Climate Effects Scope

    3.06.6 Analysis

    3.06.7 Methods

    3.06.8 Conclusion



    Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission & Distribution, Policy, Planning and Mitigation Processes – General Considerations

    3.07. Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission, and Distribution, Policy, Planning, and Mitigation Process – General Considerations: Infrastructure Vulnerability and Climate


    3.07.1 Introduction

    3.07.2 Some Facts about Energy Infrastructure and Methodological Assessments

    3.07.3 Climate, Vulnerability, and Energy

    3.07.4 Hazards and Disasters

    3.07.5 Disaster Databases and Methods for Estimation of Disasters

    3.07.6 Precautionary Disaster Policy and the Great East Japan Earthquake

    3.07.7 A Survey of Sustainability, Sustainable Development, and Sustainability Science

    3.07.8 The IPCC, the Stern Review, and a Critique of Top-Down Modeling

    3.07.9 Future Studies in Energy

    3.07.10 Conclusions


    Relevant Websites

    3.08. Climate and Energy Production – A Climate Services Perspective

    3.08.1 Introduction

    3.08.2 Climate Services Framework

    3.08.3 Potential Climate Impact on Energy Production


    3.09. Energy Market Fundamentals

    3.09.1 Energy Market Overview

    3.09.2 Key Energy Market Models

    3.09.3 The Zonal Energy Market Architecture

    3.09.4 The Nodal Energy Market Architecture

    3.09.5 Transmission Rights Models

    3.09.6 Energy Markets Trends

    3.09.7 Conclusion


    3.10. Energy Networks


    3.10.1 Introduction

    3.10.2 Introduction to Electricity Networks and Fuel Pipelines Infrastructure

    3.10.3 Vulnerability to Climate Variability Phenomena

    3.10.4 The Role of Electricity Networks in Mitigating Human Impact on Climate Variability

    3.10.5 Suggestions


    3.11. Renewable Energy and Water Resources


    3.11.1 Introduction

    3.11.2 Renewable Energy Sources

    3.11.3 Water and Water Scarcity

    3.11.4 Desalination of Seawater

    3.11.5 Concentrating Solar Power

    3.11.6 CSP for the Cogeneration of Electricity and Desalinated Seawater

    3.11.7 Conclusions


    3.12. Energy Buildings and Urban Environment


    3.12.1 Introduction

    3.12.2 Components of Building Energy Consumption

    3.12.3 Factors Influencing Building Energy Use

    3.12.4 Adverse Effects of Energy Consumption in Buildings

    3.12.5 Strategies for Sustainable Urban Development

    3.12.6 Vulnerabilities and Opportunities Moving Forward


    3.13. Transportation and Energy


    3.13.1 Introduction

    3.13.2 Energy Consumption by Transportation

    3.13.3 Air Pollution and Climate

    3.13.4 Mitigation Actions

    3.13.5 The State of Things and the Future Potential

    3.13.6 Conclusions


    Relevant Websites

    3.14. Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission and Distribution, Policy, Planning, and Mitigation Processes – General Considerations: Large Energy Projects, Efficiency, and Vulnerability

    3.14.1 Introduction

    3.14.2 Vulnerability to Climate Variability

    3.14.3 Conclusions


    3.15. Transmission Grid Fundamentals

    3.15.1 Transmission Grid Overview

    3.15.2 Transmission Grid Modeling

    3.15.3 The Longer-Term Transmission Grid Problem

    3.15.4 Incentives for Transmission Investments

    3.15.5 A Vision for Transmission


    Appendix A Fundamentals: Concepts of Electric Power Systems

    Appendix B Electric Power System Structure

    Appendix C Fundamentals of Transmission Networks

    Volume 4: Vulnerability of Ecosystems to Climate


    Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources

    4.01. Overview of Ecosystem Functions and Services: Their Importance and Vulnerability

    4.01.1 Introduction

    4.01.2 Vulnerability, Resilience, Sustainability, and Stewardship of Ecosystem Services

    4.01.3 Supporting Services: Sustaining Ecosystem Functioning

    4.01.4 Ecosystem Stewardship and Sustainability: Where and When Will Ecosystem Services Be Most Vulnerable?


    Threats to Ecosystem Services

    4.02. Impacts of Land-Use Change to Ecosystem Services


    4.02.1 Introduction

    4.02.2 The Increasing Urban Footprint

    4.02.3 Invasive Species and Ecosystem Services

    4.02.4 Additional Effects of Land-Use Change

    4.02.5 Challenges and Solutions

    See also


    Relevant Websites

    4.03. Connecting Nitrogen Deposition and Ecosystem Services


    4.03.1 Introduction

    4.03.2 Defining an Ecosystem Services Approach

    4.03.3 Connecting Effects on Ecosystem Structure and Function to Ecosystem Services

    4.03.4 Current and Future Trends in N Deposition and Effects on Ecosystem Services: Recovery and Future Research Needs

    4.03.5 Continued Science Needs in Understanding the Impacts of N Deposition on Ecosystem Services



    Relevant Websites

    4.04. Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment on Plants


    4.04.1 Introduction

    4.04.2 Effects of Elevated CO2 on Plants

    4.04.3 Potential Threats to Ecosystem Services from Elevated CO2

    4.04.4 Summary

    See also


    Relevant Websites

    4.05. Invasive Plants and Animal Species: Threats to Ecosystem Services

    4.05.1 Introduction

    4.05.2 Impacts of Invasive Species on Ecosystem Services

    4.05.3 Looking Ahead: Climate and Its Effects on Invasive Plants and Animals

    4.05.4 Conclusion


    4.06. Does Climate Change Increase the Risk of Disease? Analyzing Published Literature to Detect Climate–Disease Interactions


    4.06.1 Introduction

    4.06.2 Challenges Inherent to Detecting a Climate-Driven Signal in Infectious Diseases

    4.06.3 A Retrospective Literature Analysis of Climate Change and Disease

    4.06.4 Future Research Directions

    4.06.5 Conclusion



    Relevant Websites

    4.07. Extreme Climatic Events


    4.07.1 Introduction

    4.07.2 The Emerging Field of Climate Extremes Research

    4.07.3 Ecosystem Impacts of Climate Extremes

    4.07.4 Definitions of Climate Extremes, Extreme Ecological Responses, and ECEs

    4.07.5 Application of the ECE Framework

    4.07.6 The Rarity of ECEs

    4.07.7 Ecosystem Sensitivity to ECEs

    4.07.8 Future Directions of Climate Extremes Research

    4.07.9 Conclusions



    Ecosystem Functions and Services

    4.08. Ecosystem Services of Energy Exchange and Regulation


    4.08.1 Introduction

    4.08.2 First Principles

    4.08.3 Sensitivity to Environmental Stress

    4.08.4 What Are Current Trends in Climate-Induced Changes in Mass and Energy Exchange?

    4.08.5 Policy/Stakeholder Recommendations


    4.09. Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    4.09.1 The Climate Regulation Ecosystem Service

    4.09.2 What Controls the Magnitude of the Service?

    4.09.3 Thresholds and Tipping Points

    4.09.4 Vulnerability of the Terrestrial Climate Regulation Service to Climate

    4.09.5 Ways of Reducing Vulnerability

    4.09.6 Trade-Offs between Climate Regulations and Other Ecosystem Services

    4.09.7 Conclusions


    4.10. Vulnerability of Agroecosystems to Environmental Factors

    4.10.1 Introduction

    4.10.2 Food Security

    4.10.3 Water Security

    4.10.4 Adaptation of Agroecosystems to Climate

    4.10.5 Policy Implications for Agriculture

    4.10.6 Conclusions


    4.11. Vulnerability of Pollination Ecosystem Services


    4.11.1 Ecological Interactions

    4.11.2 Ecosystem Service Changes

    4.11.3 Mitigation Possibilities

    4.11.4 Conclusions and Policy and Management Implications


    4.12. Controls on Provisioning Services and Forest Productivity: Responses and Risk under Changing Environmental Conditions

    4.12.1 Introduction

    4.12.2 Environmental Changes and Productivity Responses

    4.12.3 Evaluating Risks to Forest Productivity

    4.12.4 Adaptation/Mitigation Options


    4.13. Social–Ecological Vulnerability of Grassland Ecosystems

    4.13.1 Introduction

    4.13.2 Background

    4.13.3 Great Plains

    4.13.4 Mongolian Example

    4.13.5 Coping Strategies

    4.13.6 East Africa Example

    4.13.7 Monitoring and Assessment Strategies for Grassland Ecosystems

    4.13.8 Opportunities and Challenges for Managing for Change in Grassland Systems

    4.13.9 Summary


    4.14. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Ecosystems


    4.14.1 Introduction

    4.14.2 A Risk-Based Approach to Mitigation and Adaptation

    4.14.3 The Hazards: Sea-Level Change and Coastal Protections

    4.14.4 The Assets: Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services

    4.14.5 Vulnerabilities: Impact of Sea-Level Change and Coastal Protection on Coastal Ecosystems

    4.14.6 Risk Assessments

    4.14.7 Adaptation and Mitigation – Recommendations


    4.15. The Vulnerability of Biodiversity to Rapid Climate Change


    4.15.1 Introduction

    4.15.2 Outlooks for Future Environments

    4.15.3 Nature of Biotic Vulnerability

    4.15.4 Implications for Biodiversity Conservation: Fundamentals, Uncertainties, and Planning


    See also


    4.16. Biodiversity – Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts

    4.16.1 Introduction

    4.16.2 Biodiversity and Temperature

    4.16.3 Diversity versus Stability – a Long Debate

    4.16.4 The Vulnerability of Ecosystem Stability and Regime Shifts

    4.16.5 Regime Shifts and the Vulnerability of Marine Ecosystems to Climate

    4.16.6 Outlook



    4.17. Terrestrial Food Webs and Vulnerability of the Structure and Functioning of Ecosystems to Climate


    4.17.1 Introduction

    4.17.2 Food Webs and Ecosystem Services

    4.17.3 Climate and Ecosystem Structure and Functioning

    4.17.4 Possibilities for Climate Effects to Alter Ecosystem Function

    4.17.5 Policy Actions to Minimize or Eliminate the Negative Consequences of Climate Effects


    4.18. The Vulnerability of Tourism and Recreation to Climate Change

    4.18.1 Introduction: Scope and Scale

    4.18.2 Components and Sources of Vulnerability

    4.18.3 Destinations

    4.18.4 Tourists

    4.18.5 Enterprises

    4.18.6 Most Vulnerable Subsectors

    4.18.7 Priorities for Future Research

    4.18.8 Conclusions


    4.19. Assessing Cumulative Risks to Ecosystem Function: Expectations and Realities of Environmental Change Interaction Effects

    4.19.1 Introduction

    4.19.2 Direct and Indirect Effects of Environmental Change on Ecosystem Functioning

    4.19.3 The Importance of Environmental Context for Biodiversity Effects on Functioning

    4.19.4 Functional Response Traits and Functional Assembly within Communities

    4.19.5 Environmental Changes Select for Functionally Important Traits: Examples

    4.19.6 Linking Response with Effect Traits

    4.19.7 Response Diversity and the Possibility of Co-Tolerance

    4.19.8 Evidence of Interactions among Drivers

    4.19.9 Conclusions and Implications


    Case Studies: Vulnerability to Cumulative Threats

    4.20. Desertification of Rangelands


    4.20.1 Introduction

    4.20.2 Effects of Desertification on Ecosystem Services

    4.20.3 Potential Actions for Mitigation

    4.20.4 Recommendations for Land Managers, Policymakers, and Other Stakeholders

    4.20.5 Summary



    4.21. Vulnerability of Coral Reefs


    4.21.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

    4.21.2 Coral Reefs and Cumulative Impacts

    4.21.3 What Is Resilience?

    4.21.4 The Conventional View of Coral Reef Resilience

    4.21.5 An Alternative View of Resilience in a Disturbed World

    4.21.6 Implications for Conservation and Management



    4.22. Vulnerability of Estuaries to Climate Change


    4.22.1 Introduction

    4.22.2 What Is an Estuary?

    4.22.3 Long-Term Change

    4.22.4 Modes of Estuarine Response

    4.22.5 Implications for Ecosystem Functions and Services


    4.23. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic

    4.23.1 Introduction

    4.23.2 Climate Change Impacts in the Arctic

    4.23.3 Vulnerability and Adaptation

    4.23.4 The Canadian Arctic and Community Vulnerability Studies

    4.23.5 Subsistence Hunting

    4.23.6 Transportation

    4.23.7 Infrastructure

    4.23.8 Health and Well-Being

    4.23.9 Culture and Learning

    4.23.10 Business and Economy

    4.23.11 Conclusions


    4.24. Vulnerability of the Ski Industry

    4.24.1 Introduction

    4.24.2 The Winter Sports Tourism Industry

    4.24.3 Evolution of Ski Industry Climate Sensitivity

    4.24.4 Vulnerability to Climate

    4.24.5 Conclusions and Policy Implications


    Planning, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

    4.25. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Climate Vulnerabilities and Maintain Ecosystem Services


    4.25.1 Introduction

    4.25.2 Mitigation

    4.25.3 Adaptation

    4.25.4 Social Considerations in Planning for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change



    Volume 5: Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate


    General Overview of Water Cycle: Patterns, Utilization & Risk Projections

    5.01. Emerging Approaches to Hydrological Risk Management in a Changing World

    5.01.1 Unexpected Events and Risk Management

    5.01.2 Elements of Integrated Hydrological Risk Management

    5.01.3 Top-Down (Economic) Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Probabilities

    5.01.4 Bottom-Up (Social) Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Possibilities

    5.01.5 Accounting for Black Swan Events

    5.01.6 Conclusions



    5.02. State of the World’s Water Resources

    5.02.1 Introduction

    5.02.2 Water Availability

    5.02.3 Water Use

    5.02.4 Conclusions


    5.03. Recent Trends in Regional and Global Intense Precipitation Patterns

    5.03.1 Introduction

    5.03.2 Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation during the Past 50 Years over the Globe

    5.03.3 Conclusions and Recommendations


    5.04. Orographic Precipitation, Freshwater Resources, and Climate Vulnerabilities in Mountainous Regions

    5.04.1 Introduction

    5.04.2 Landform and Orographic Precipitation Regimes

    5.04.3 Coupled Land–Atmosphere Interactions and Mountain Ecohydrosystems

    5.04.4 Climate and Environmental Change Vulnerabilities of Mountainous Regions

    5.04.5 Synthesis



    5.05. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests

    5.05.1 Tropical Montane Cloud Forests and Their Relationship to Water Input

    5.05.2 Stability of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests

    5.05.3 Bottom–Up Solutions


    5.06. Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation of Urban Water Infrastructure Systems

    5.06.1 Introduction

    5.06.2 Conventional Urban Water Infrastructure Systems

    5.06.3 Toward Sustainable Urban Water Systems

    5.06.4 Conclusion


    5.07. Impacts of Urbanization on Precipitation and Storms: Physical Insights and Vulnerabilities

    5.07.1 Introduction

    5.07.2 Vulnerabilities in the Coupled Human Natural System

    5.07.3 Historical Evidence of the ‘URE’

    5.07.4 Post-METROMEX Era Perspective

    5.07.5 Beyond Spatiotemporal Rainfall Climatology: Urban Effects and Other Related Hazards

    5.07.6 What Causes the URE?

    5.07.7 Broader Context


    5.08. Analysis of Paleoclimate Records for Understanding the Tropical Hydrologic Cycle in Abrupt Climate Change

    5.08.1 Introduction

    5.08.2 Modern Tropical Hydrological Cycle

    5.08.3 Tropical Paleoclimate during the Last Glacial–Interglacial Cycle

    5.08.4 Tropical Climate during the LGM

    5.08.5 Holocene Climate

    5.08.6 Past Civilizations and Tropical Hydrological Cycle

    5.08.7 Concluding Remarks


    5.09. The Potential of Precipitation Remote Sensing for Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment in Arid Southwestern United States

    5.09.1 Introduction

    5.09.2 Remote Sensing of Precipitation

    5.09.3 Application to Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment

    5.09.4 Summary and Concluding Remarks


    5.10. Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

    5.10.1 Introduction

    5.10.2 GRACE Data: Unique and Challenging

    5.10.3 Groundwater Depletion Assessment

    5.10.4 Lakes and Glaciers

    5.10.5 GRACE Data Assimilation

    5.10.6 Drought Monitoring

    5.10.7 Future Prospects


    Regional Vulnerability of Water Resources

    5.11. Changing Discharge Patterns of High-Latitude Rivers


    5.11.1 Introduction

    5.11.2 Current Status of Discharge Monitoring

    5.11.3 River Streamflow

    5.11.4 Discussion and Conclusions


    5.12. The Sustainability of Pacific Northwest Hydropower Generation in the Context of Nonstationarity and Renewable Energy Growth

    5.12.1 Introduction

    5.12.2 Harnessing Hydropower: An Overview

    5.12.3 Environmental and Social Consequences of Hydropower

    5.12.4 The Regulatory Environment

    5.12.5 Hydropower in the Context of Renewable Energy

    5.12.6 Hydropower in the Face of Nonstationarity

    5.12.7 The Sustainability of Hydropower in the Pacific Northwest




    5.13. Water Resources of Mainland China

    5.13.1 Introduction

    5.13.2 Water Resource Status in Seven River Basins

    5.13.3 Some Key Water Resource Issues

    5.13.4 Possible Influences of Climate on Water Resources

    5.13.5 Tackling the Water Resource Problems

    5.13.6 Concluding Remarks



    Web References

    5.14. Recent and Historic Andean Snowpack and Streamflow Variations and Vulnerability to Water Shortages in Central-Western Argentina

    5.14.1 Introduction

    5.14.2 Andean Snowpack Is a Crucial Water Resource in Vast Semiarid Areas of Southern South America

    5.14.3 Andean Snowpack and Streamflow Records Share a Strong Regional Common Signal

    5.14.4 Relationship of Local Hydroclimatic Variations with Large-Scale Atmospheric Features such as ENSO and PDO

    5.14.5 Reconstructing Andean Snowpack Variations from Multiple Proxies

    5.14.6 Climate and Hydrological Sciences Informing Vulnerability Reduction and Adaptation



    5.15. Natural Hazards Assessment in Mountainous Terrains of Europe: Landslides and Flash Floods

    5.15.1 Introduction

    5.15.2 Landslide Hazard in Mountain Terrains of Europe

    5.15.3 A Large-Scale Characterization of Flash Floods Hazard in Europe

    5.15.4 Conclusions and Indication for Future Work


    5.16. Flood Inundation Dynamics and Socioeconomic Vulnerability under Environmental Change

    5.16.1 Environmental Change and Its Impact on Floods

    5.16.2 Flood Inundation Dynamics and Impact Modeling

    5.16.3 Changing Flood Risk and Vulnerability

    5.16.4 Concluding Remarks


    5.17. Vulnerability Assessments in the Netherlands Using Climate Scenarios

    5.17.1 Introduction: Climate and Vulnerability in the Netherlands

    5.17.2 Case Studies in the Context of Vulnerability Assessment

    5.17.3 Protection against River Floods in the Rhine Basin

    5.17.4 Coastal Defense: Storm Surges and Sea Level Rise

    5.17.5 Extreme Precipitation in the Coastal Area

    5.17.6 Climate Change Assessments in the Netherlands

    5.17.7 Concluding Remarks


    5.18. Epitomes of Bottom-Up Hydro-Geo-Climatological Analysis to Face Sea Level Rise in Complex Coastal Ecosystems

    5.18.1 Coastal Ecosystems: Geomorphic Elements, Species, and Cities

    5.18.2 Materials and Methods

    5.18.3 Results and Discussion

    5.18.4 Conclusions and Perspectives



    Relevant Websites

    5.19. West Africa – Water Resources Vulnerability Using a Multidimensional Approach: Case Study of Volta Basin

    5.19.1 Introduction

    5.19.2 The Volta River Basin: Physical Setting

    5.19.3 Surface Water Sources and Quality in the Volta System

    5.19.4 Groundwater Sources in the Volta Basin of Ghana

    5.19.5 Agroecological Zones in the Volta Basin of Ghana

    5.19.6 The History of Development of the Volta Basin

    5.19.7 Social Issues in the Volta Basin

    5.19.8 Major Farming Systems and Land Tenure in the Volta Basin

    5.19.9 Health and Environmental Changes in the Volta Basin

    5.19.10 Conclusion


    5.20. Assessment of the Vulnerabilities of the Nubian Sandstone Fossil Aquifer, North Africa


    5.20.1 Introduction

    5.20.2 Geologic and Hydrologic Setting of the Nubian Aquifer System

    5.20.3 Origin and Evolution of the Nubian Aquifer System

    5.20.4 Temporal and Spatial Mass Variations across the Nubian Aquifer Using GRACE Data

    5.20.5 Connectivity of Subbasins

    5.20.6 Patterns of Paleo-Recharge

    5.20.7 Patterns of Modern Natural Recharge

    5.20.8 Modern Recharge Due to Manmade Structures

    5.20.9 Location and Magnitude of Modern Discharge

    5.20.10 Scenarios for Recharging the Nubian Aquifer

    5.20.11 Development of Realistic Groundwater Flow and Age-Mass Transport Models for the Nubian Aquifer

    5.20.12 Findings

    5.20.13 Implications for the Vulnerability of the Nubian Aquifer



    5.21. Climate Vulnerability on the Water Resources Systems and Potential Adaptation Approaches in East Africa: The Case of Ethiopia

    5.21.1 Introduction

    5.21.2 Ethiopia in Eastern Africa: Climate and Water Resources

    5.21.3 Historical and Observational Evidence of Climate Variability

    5.21.4 The Contextual Vulnerability Factors

    5.21.5 Bottom-Up Adaptation Approaches to Climate Vulnerability

    5.21.6 Conclusion


    5.22. Hydroclimatology and Large-Scale Population Vulnerability to Cholera Outbreaks in the Bengal Delta

    5.22.1 Introduction

    5.22.2 Key Hydroclimatic and Environmental Processes

    5.22.3 Hydroclimatology and Associated Population Vulnerability

    5.22.4 Conclusions


    5.23. Flood Inundation and Crop Damage Mapping: A Method for Modeling the Impact on Rural Income and Migration in Humid Deltas

    5.23.1 Introduction

    5.23.2 Case Study Site: Bangladesh

    5.23.3 Climate-Vulnerability Scenarios of Bangladesh by Bottom-Up Approach

    5.23.4 Potential Methods for Remote-Sensing-Based Spatiotemporal Migration Study and Existing Knowledge Base

    5.23.5 Discussion on Potential Scope of Future Research


    5.24. Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Bangladesh from Risks of Climate

    5.24.1 Introduction

    5.24.2 Sensitivity of Water Resources to Environmental and Socioeconomic Variables

    5.24.3 Critical Changes (Thresholds) in Variables Affecting Water Resources

    5.24.4 Impacts of Critical Changes and Actions to Eliminate Negative Impacts

    5.24.5 Specific Recommendations for Policymakers and Stakeholders


    5.25. Water Resources Vulnerability in the Context of Rapid Urbanization of Dhaka City (a South Asian Megacity)

    5.25.1 Introduction

    5.25.2 Twenty-Year Analysis of Rainfall Patterns in Urban and Nonurban Regions of Bangladesh

    5.25.3 Analysis of the 28 July 2009 Storm Event

    5.25.4 Assessment of Urban Runoff Generation Potential

    5.25.5 Discussion

    5.25.6 Conclusion




Product details

  • No. of pages: 1570
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Academic Press 2013
  • Published: March 15, 2013
  • Imprint: Academic Press
  • Hardcover ISBN: 9780123847034
  • eBook ISBN: 9780123847041

About the Editor in Chief

Roger A. Pielke

Roger A. Pielke

He is currently a Senior Research Scientist in CIRES and a Senior Research Associate at the University of Colorado-Boulder in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC) at the University of Colorado in Boulder (November 2005 -present). He is also an Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and has a five-year appointment (April 2007 - March 2012) on the Graduate Faculty of Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana. Pielke has studied terrain-induced mesoscale systems, including the development of a three-dimensional mesoscale model of the sea breeze, for which he received the NOAA Distinguished Authorship Award for 1974. Dr. Pielke has worked for NOAA's Experimental Meteorology Lab (1971-1974), The University of Virginia (1974-1981), and Colorado State University (1981-2006). He served as Colorado State Climatologist from 1999-2006. He was an adjunct faculty member in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina (July 2003-2006). He was a visiting Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona from October to December 2004.

He has served as Chairman and Member of the AMS Committee on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, and was Chief Editor for the Monthly Weather Review for 5 years from 1981 to 1985. In 1977, he received the AMS Leroy Meisinger Award for "fundamental contributions to mesoscale meteorology through numerical modeling of the sea breeze and interaction among the mountains, oceans, boundary layer, and the free atmosphere." Dr. Pielke received the 1984 Abell New Faculty Research and Graduate Program Award, and also received the 1987/1988 Abell Research Faculty Award. He was declared "Researcher of the Year" by the Colorado State University Research Foundation in 1993. In 2000 he received the Engineering Dean's Council Award from Colorado State University.

He authored a book published by Academic Press entitled Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling (1984) with a 2nd edition in 2002, a book for Routledge Press entitled The Hurricane (1990), a book (co-authored with W.R. Cotton) for Cambridge Press entitled Human Impacts on Weather and Climate (1995; 2nd Edition 2006), a book (co-authored with R.A. Pielke, Jr.) entitled Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society published in 1997 by John Wiley and Sons, and was Co-Chief Editor (with R.A. Pielke, Jr.) of a book entitled Storms, published by Routledge Press in 1999.

Roger Pielke Sr. was elected a Fellow of the AMS in 1982 and a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2004. From 1993-1996, he served as Editor-in-Chief of the US National Science Report to the IUGG (1991-1994) for the American Geophysical Union. From January 1996 to December 2000, he served as Co-Chief Editor of the Journal of Atmospheric Science. In 1998, he received NOAA's ERL Outstanding Scientific Paper (with Conrad Ziegler and Tsengdar Lee) for a modeling study of the convective dryline. He was designated a Pennsylvania State Centennial Fellow in 1996, and named the Pennsylvania State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences Alumni of the year for 1999 (with Bill Cotton). He is currently serving on the AGU Focus Group on Natural Hazards (August 2009-present) and the AMS Committee on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification (October 2009-present). He is among one of three faculty and one of four members listed by ISI HighlyCited in Geosciences at Colorado State University and the University of Colorado at Boulder, respectively.

Dr. Pielke has published over 370 papers in peer-reviewed journals, 55 chapters in books, co-edited 9 books, and made over 700 presentations during his career to date. A listing of papers can be viewed at the project website: He also launched a science weblog in 2005 to discuss weather and climate issues. This weblog was named one of the 50 most popular Science blogs by Nature Magazine on July 5, 2006 and is located at

Affiliations and Expertise

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, USA

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