Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation

Applied Drought Modelling, Prediction, and Mitigation provides a practical guide to new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions.

The modeling procedures covered by the book include recent advancements in regional drought extent, coverage, intensity, and water deficit predictions, which are increasingly significant given current climate change impacts on water resources.

Each modeling procedure is explained theoretically prior to the mathematical derivation, and includes book examples, exercises, and case studies that supplement the applied and practical material, thus making the approaches accessible and applicable to the reader.

• Presents new and recent methodologies for drought characterizations, change modeling, down-scaling, and future predictions
• Includes online modeling tools to help readers quickly solve drought related problems
• Presents methodologies, including drought features (duration, intensity, and magnitude) at any desired risk level
• Include case studies from arid and semi-arid regions

Environmental scientists, hydrologists, water resource managers and planners

• Dedication
• Preface
• Chapter One: Introduction
  • Abstract
  • 1.1 General
  • 1.2 Historical View
  • 1.3 Atmospheric Composition and Drought
  • 1.4 Drought Definitions
  • 1.5 Droughts, Aridity, and Desertification
  • 1.6 Drought Impacts
  • 1.7 Drought Regions
  • 1.8 Drought Types and Their Impacts
  • 1.9 Significant Drought Mitigation Points
• Chapter Two: Basic Drought Indicators
  • Abstract
  • 2.1 General
  • 2.2 Simple Drought Indicators
  • 2.3 Palmer Drought Indicators
  • 2.4 Surface Water Supply Index
  • 2.5 Percent of Normal Indicator
  • 2.6 Decile Indicator
  • 2.7 Crop Moisture Index
  • 2.8 Erinç Drought Indicator
  • 2.9 Water Balance Indicators
  • 2.10 Köppen Drought Indicator and Modifications
  • 2.11 Martonne Drought Indicator
  • 2.12 Budyko–Lettau Drought Ratio Indicator
  • 2.13 Aridity Index (AI)
  • 2.14 Standardized Precipitation Index
  • 2.15 Typical Problems with Indicators and Triggers
  • 2.16 Percentiles for Drought Indicators and Triggers
  • 2.17 Triple Drought Indicator
  • 2.18 Fuzzy Logic Approach
  • 2.19 Continuity Curve
• Chapter Three: Temporal Drought Analysis and Modeling
  • Abstract
  • 3.1 General
  • 3.2 Numerical Definition of Droughts
  • 3.3 The Threshold Level Method
  • 3.4 Drought Forecasting
  • 3.5 Drought Features
  • 3.6 Temporal Drought Modeling Methodologies
  • 3.7 Critical Drought Duration
  • 3.8 Analytical Derivation of Longest Run-Length
  • 3.9 Crossing Probabilities
  • 3.10 Annual Flow Totals
  • Appendix 3.1 Drought Features Software
  • Appendix 3.2 Independent Bernoulli Trials Software
  • Appendix 3.3 Dependent Bernoulli Trials Software
  • Appendix 3.4 Identically and Independently Distributed Variable Software
  • Appendix 3.5 Un-Identically and Independently Distributed Variable Software
• Chapter Four: Regional Drought Analysis and Modeling
  • Abstract
  • 4.1 General
  • 4.2 Regional Numerical Definition of Droughts
  • 4.3 Techniques to Predict Regional Droughts
  • 4.4 Regional Drought Features
  • 4.5 Random Drought Coverage Areas
  • 4.6 Analytical Formulation
  • 4.7 Total Areal Deficit (D)
  • 4.8 Maximum Deficit Intensity (Id)
  • 4.9 Areal Joint Drought PDF
  • 4.10 Rainy and Nonrainy Days
  • 4.11 Double-Logarithmic Method for Determination of Monthly Wet and Dry Periods
  • 4.12 Power Law in Describing Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Pattern
  • Appendix 4.1 Areal Maximum Probability Coverages
  • Appendix 4.2 Total Areal Deficit
• Chapter Five: Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Modeling
  • Abstract
  • 5.1 General
  • 5.2 Spatiotemporal Drought Models
  • 5.3 Drought Spatiotemporal Modeling
  • 5.4 Regional Wet and Dry Spell Analysis With Heterogeneous Probability Occurrences
  • 5.5 Areal Precipitation Coverage Probability From a Set of Heterogeneous Point Probability
  • Appendix 5.1 Heterogeneous Regional Binomial PDF Calculation Software
• Chapter Six: Climate Change, Droughts, and Water Resources
  • Abstract
  • 6.1 General
  • 6.2 Basic Definitions and Concepts
  • 6.3 Atmospheric Composition and Pollution
  • 6.4 Climate Belt Shifts Simple Model
  • 6.5 Adapting to Climate Change
  • 6.6 Drought Disasters
  • 6.7 Desertification and Climate Change
  • 6.8 Climate Models
  • 6.9 Climate Change and Major Cities
  • 6.10 Climate Change and Water Resources
  • 6.11 Global Warming Threat on Water Resources
  • 6.12 Some Recommendations
• Chapter Seven: Drought Hazard Mitigation and Risk
  • Abstract
  • 7.1 General
  • 7.2 Basic Definitions
  • 7.3 Goals and Objectives
  • 7.4 Drought Watches Systems and Relief
  • 7.5 Drought Mitigation Planning History and Objectives
  • 7.6 Vulnerability Management
  • 7.7 Risk Analysis Management
  • 7.8 Disaster Management
  • 7.9 Droughts Risk Calculation Methodology
  • 7.10 Drought Duration–Safety Curves
  • 7.11 Weather Modification
• Index