Age, Time, and Fertility

List of Figures and Tables

Preface

Acknowledgments

I. Introduction

Notes

II. Preparing for an Exploratory Analysis: Data and Analytic Approach

Introduction

Data in Time Sequence—Two Centuries of Swedish Fertility Rates

Exploratory Data Analysis—The Philosophy and the Tools

Summary

Notes

III. Starting an Exploratory Analysis: Choices and Procedures

Introduction

Selected Time Sequences of Age-specific Fertility

Form of the Data

Re-expression of the Data

Selection of Models for Fitting to Fertility Data

Robust-Resistant Iterative Fitting Procedures

Measures of Goodness-of-Fit

Adapting to Computer Capabilities

Summary

Notes

IV. Residuals: The Evidence of Goodness-of-Fit

Introduction

Size of Residuals

Structure in Residuals

Summary

Notes

V. Re-presentation of Fits: Demographically Guided Standard Forms

Introduction

Form of Re-presentation of Double Multiplicative Fits

Form of Re-presentation of Triple Multiplicative Fits

Demographic Logic in the Choice of a Standard Form

Functions of the Standard-form Components

Summary

Notes

VI. Age Patterns of Overall Fertility: Two Centuries of Change

Introduction

Cohort Fits by Single Year of Age

Two Centuries of Overall Fertility: Cohort and Cross-sectional Perspectives

Fertility Change in the Counties of Sweden from 1860 to 1970

Summary

Notes

VII. Age Patterns of Marital Fertility: Seven Decades of Change

Introduction

Comparison of the EHR and Coale Descriptions of Marital Fertility

Expanded Focus on Cross-sectional Marital Fertility Change

Change in Marital Fertility Distributions Not Accounted for by Change in the Level of Marital Fertility

Change in Age-specific Proportions Married: Approximation from EHR Fertility Parameters

Use of Intersequence EHR Relations to Detect the Unusual and Estimate Missing Data

Cohort Marital Fertility and Its Relation to Cohort Overall Fertility

Future Directions in Exploring Overall and Marital Fertility Relations

Summary

Notes

VIII. Preliminary Cross-population Comparisons of Fertility Patterns: Evidence for the Generality of EHR Age Standards

Introduction

Procedure for Expressing Age-specific Fertility Schedules in Terms of EHR-derived Age Standards

Cross-population Comparisons of Fertility Patterns

Summary

Notes

IX. Conclusion

Appendix A. The Relationship of Empirical Analysis to More Narrowly Modeled Analysis

Kinds of Models

The General Character of Combinational Broad Stocks

Comments on EHR Analysis

The Structure of the Coale-Trussell Model

Comparison of the Breckenridge EHR and Coale-Trussell Models

References

Appendix B. Robust-Resistant Fitting Procedures and a Robust-Resistant Measure of Fit

Iteratively Weighted Fitting of Two or Three Multiplicative Components to an m X n Matrix

A Robust-Resistant Measure of Fit

Appendix C. Re-presentation of EHR Fits in a Standard Form

A Selected Standard-form Re-presentation of a Rank-two Fit

A Selected Standard-form Re-presentation of a Rank-three Fit

Notes

References

Index