Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification

Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification

1st Edition - February 1, 2023

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  • Authors: Eric Gilleland, Barbara Brown
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128138533

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Description

Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification is a resource for researchers and practitioners who are applying traditional and new methods of forecast evaluation. It offers information that will make it possible for researchers and others to apply the newest forecast methods; rather than searching for information in each individual method, providing the information needed to apply all of the techniques in one place. Selection of the appropriate method to apply to a particular problem is facilitated by comparisons of the methods and their results, which will be included in the book. With these skills in hand, readers can make improvements in both their modelling and the evaluation of the results.

Key Features

  • Provides a single resource on forecast evaluation, reviewing both traditional and new techniques
  • Summarizes information, including terminology and methodologies, in a clear and accessible way
  • Appropriate for new and experienced practitioners, as well as producers and users of forecasts
  • Demonstrates techniques for forecasting and modeling extreme weather to produce better quality model outputs when the sample size is not very large

Readership

Operational forecasters, students and researchers in atmosphere and climate, appropriate for courses covering forecast verification where available, meteorologists

Table of Contents

  • 1. Introduction
    2. Statistical Basis for Verification
    3. Traditional verification for deterministic forecasts
    4. Traditional verification for probabilistic forecasts
    5. Diagnostic tools for univariate measures
    6. Background, motivation, and overview of spatial forecast verification methods
    7. Neighborhood methods
    8. Scale separation methods
    9. Location measures
    10. Field deformation
    11. Feature-based: identifying features, merging, matching, properties, and property comparisons
    12. Feature-based: direct comparisons between matched features: CRA, MODE
    13. Feature-based: spatial contingency table
    14. Spatial Prediction Comparison Test, including image warping loss
    15. Additional topics: hurricane forecasts, S2S, observation uncertainty

Product details

  • No. of pages: 308
  • Language: English
  • Copyright: © Elsevier 2023
  • Published: February 1, 2023
  • Imprint: Elsevier
  • Paperback ISBN: 9780128138533

About the Authors

Eric Gilleland

Dr Eric Gilleland is a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), where he has performed research on statistical methods for forecast verification, especially spatial methods for high-resolution models, as well as applications of extreme value analysis, since 2002. Gilleland has a Ph.D. in statistics from the Colorado State University.

Affiliations and Expertise

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Barbara Brown

Barbara G. Brown is a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), where she has led efforts on development and application of methods for weather and climate forecast evaluation. She also has extensive experience providing tutorials on verification methods. Brown has MS degrees in environmental science (University of Virginia, 1979) and statistics (Oregon State University, 1983).

Affiliations and Expertise

National Center for Atmospheric Research

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