By
L.R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
W. Welfe
A. Welfe, University of Lodz, Poland
Description
Two important new developments have occurred that have significant impact on the evolution of econometrics, namely, the end of the Cold
War and the emergence of the information revolution in nearly all economies of the world.
The information revolution has had significant
effect on data flows, making them much more timely, accessible, and descriptive of more parts of the economy. At the same time, it has
changed the industrial structure of many economies, giving rise to increasing importance of the tertiary sectors (e.g. services). The
new generation of hardware and software enables econometricians to handle larger and more complex problems, especially those that are
data intensive and computer intrusive.
These major events require reconsideration and redrafting of some of the materials of the
original edition.
The present volume retains the original structure of "Lectures on Microeconomic Theory" and takes up principles
of constructing dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses and forecasting, while introducing many updates, revisions
and extensions. The description of the econometric methodology has been limited to specific applications of time series analysis, and
the title has been changed to "Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling".
The first four chapters discuss the principles of specifying
equations of structural macromodels, covering both developed marked economies, transition economies and world-wide models. The remaining
chapters cover some major issues in the use of macromodels. The point of departure is model simulation, especially of the prevailing
non-linear models, which is followed by model validation. The analysis of model dynamics covers economic fluctuations and the relevant
implications of non-stationarity. The use of macromodels in policy analysis is presented next; it includes multiplier analysis and scenario
simulations. The monograph ends up with forecasting being a special case of simulation analysis.
Included in series
Advanced Textbooks in Economics
