Their findings were just published in The American Journal of Medicine.
Gun ownership in the US has been a hotly debated issue for more than 200 years. A popular notion in the US, where there are almost as many guns as people, is that “guns make a nation safer,” although there has been little evidence either way. The shootings in Aurora, Tucson, Oak Creek, at Virginia Tech, among others in recent years, have demonstrated that there may be a relationship between mental illness and easy access to guns, and that lack of treatment for mental illness may be more of a pressing problem than mere availability of guns.
Ever since the Second Amendment to the US Constitution – which states that “a well-regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed” – was passed in 1791, there has been a fierce debate over guns in the US. At one end is the argument that gun control laws are an infringement on the right to self-defense and on constitutional rights, and that there is no evidence that banning assault weapons would reduce crime. At the other end is the view that fewer firearms would reduce crime rates and overall lead to greater safety.
[caption align="alignleft"]Dr. Sripal Bangalore, MD, MHA[/caption][caption align="alignright"]Franz H. Messerli, MD[/caption]Dr. Sripal Bangalore, Assistant Professor at the NYU Langone Medical Center, and Dr. Franz H. Messerli, Director of the Hypertension Program for the St. Luke’s-Roosevelt Hospital Center and Professor of Clinical Medicine at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons in New York MD, examined data for 27 developed countries.
The gun ownership data were obtained from the Small Arms Survey, and the data for firearm-related deaths were obtained from a European detailed mortality database (World Health Organization), the National Center for Health Statistics, and others. The crime rate was used as an indicator of safety of the nation and was obtained from the United Nations Surveys on Crime Trends.
“The gun ownership rate was a strong and independent predictor of firearm-related death,” said Dr. Bangalore. He illustrated this point with highlights from their findings:[caption align="alignright" width="392"]Guns per capital per country and firearm-related deaths (Source: "Gun Ownership and Firearm-related Deaths,” by Sripal Bangalore, MD, MHA, and Franz H. Messerli, MD, in The American Journal of Medicine)[/caption]
- Private gun ownership was highest in the US. Japan, on the other end, had an extremely low gun ownership rate.
- Similarly, South Africa (9.4 per 100,000) and the US (10.2 per 100,000) had extremely high firearm-related deaths, whereas the United Kingdom (0.25 per 100,000) had an extremely low rate of firearm-related deaths.
- There was a significant correlation between guns per head per country and the rate of firearm-related deaths with Japan being on one end of the spectrum and the US being on the other. This argues against the notion of more guns translating into less crime.
- South Africa was the only outlier in that the observed firearms-related death rate was several times higher than expected from gun ownership.
The investigators also evaluated whether mental illness, and not merely the access to guns, is the driving force for criminal activities. They used age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rates due to major depressive disorder per 100,000 inhabitants with data obtained from the World Health Organization database as a presumed indicator for mental illness burden in each country to assess whether there was a correlation between mental illness burden of a country and the crime rate in a country, but found no significant correlation between mental illness and crime rate.
In the article, they write:
They conclude that, “Regardless of exact cause and effect, the current study debunks the widely quoted hypothesis that countries with higher gun ownership are safer than those with low gun ownership.” [divider]
Although correlation is not the same as causation, it seems conceivable that abundant gun availability facilitates firearm-related deaths. Conversely, high crime rates may instigate widespread anxiety and fear, thereby motivating people to arm themselves and give rise to increased gun ownership, which, in turn, increases availability. The resulting vicious cycle could, bit by bit, lead to the polarized status that is now the case with the US.
Read the study
"Gun Ownership and Firearm-related Deaths,” by Sripal Bangalore, MD, MHA, and Franz H. Messerli, MD (DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2013.04.012), is freely available as a PDF on the homepage of The American Journal of Medicine. AJM, published by Elsevier, is the official journal of the Association of Professors of Medicine. [divider]
Elsevier Connect AuthorEileen Leahy has handled media outreach for 14 years for a portfolio of Elsevier Health Sciences journals, including the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Mayo Clinic Proceedings and The American Journal of Medicine. An experienced STM journal marketer, Eileen was responsible for the launches of numerous journals while on staff at Elsevier, most notably, the Journal of the American College of Cardiology and Gastroenterology. She continues working as an independent consultant specializing in the development and marketing of innovative online full-text publications.