Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks
- B. John Garrick
Civil Engineers, Environmental Engineers, and Environmental Risk Managers
- Published: September 2008
- Imprint: ACADEMIC PRESS
- ISBN: 978-0-12-374601-6
Book Endorsements QUANTIFYING AND CONTROLLING CATASTROPHIC RISKS B. John Garrick âIn this ground-breaking book, John Garrick and his contributors make a most compelling argument for a rational approach to quantifying the risk associated with those low-probability but high-consequence occurrences known as catastrophes. Like the case studies in Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks, the publication of this book is itself one of those rare events that is of enormous consequence for science, technology, and society.â -Henry Petroski, PhD, Aleksandar S. Vesic Professor of Civil Engineering, Duke University; author of To Engineer Is Human and Success through Failure. This is a foundational book. It brings the rigor and discipline of science to decision making - a sorely needed ability in a world faced with increasingly complex risks. John Garrick and his colleagues have armed us with a quantitative framework to address catastrophic events that are too often ignored or wishfully dismissed. I have little doubt that this book will become a standard resource for all who wrestle with complex, high-impact issues. -Thomas O. Hunter, PhD, President and Laboratories Director, Sandia National Laboratories This book is a must for practitioners and students alike in the field of quantitative risk assessment. John has elegantly laid out the methodology with a number of examples for evaluation of risks from complex systems and events. -Vijay K. Dhir, PhD, Dean, Henry Samueli School of Engineering & Applied Science, University of California, Los Angeles. Over four decades John Garrick has developed and practiced quantitative risk assessment (QRA). He was a co-founder of a leading risk assessment firm, PLG, and with Stan Kaplan authored the "risk triplet" which has formed the basis for QRA studies around the world: What can go wrong? How likely is that to happen? What are the consequences? He writes "A point made in this book is the need for more quantitative information on risks to support rational and scientifically based assessments of threats to society.â He presents case studies of applications of QRA: category 4 and 5 hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast, high energy asteroid impacts, terrorist physical and cyber attacks on the electrical grid, and a first pass at abrupt climate change. This book presents the knowledge and insights from Garrickâs many years working on QRA applied to nuclear power plants, chemical and petroleum installations, the space shuttle, and transportation. -John F. Ahearne, PhD, Former Chair, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Past President, Society for Risk Analysis Incredible! Arguably the âfatherâ of quantitative risk assessment for nuclear power has now come forth with a book that extends this powerful technique to the inevitable global decisions related to potential catastrophes of our time. Since nuclear power remains the only carbon free technology that offers man any real hope of impacting climatic change, this is the perfect companion to his earlier work. -Roger L. McCarthy, PhD, PE, Chairman Emeritus, Exponent, Inc.