Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts book cover

Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts

Cognitive Processes and Social Consequences

This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.

Audience
For social psychologists, applied psychologists, students of business administration, management science, and psychology, also professional forecasters and pollsters.

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Published: September 1990

Imprint: Pergamon

ISBN: 978-0-08-036763-7

Contents

  • Section headings: Intuition, Lay Predictions and Professional Forecasts. The role of prediction in daily life. Lay predictions and professional forecasts. Intuition and prediction. The intuitive core of professional forecasts. Or: Why do we need a social pyschology of prediction? Social Psychological Theories of Prediction. Early attempts: prediction as an interaction of situational characteristics and individual factors. The role of cognitive structures and processes in predicting: Tversky and Kahneman's heuristics concept. Contributions of other modern judgement research. Laboratory vs 'real world' use of heuristics. Expanding and Testing Modern Concepts for Prediction. Part 1: Individual factors and prediction. Part 2: From individual predictions to professional forecasts. The Relevance of Psychological Concepts to the Problem of Prediction. The credibility of predictions. How to evaluate predictions? Integrating theoretical concepts. References. Index.

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