Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts
Cognitive Processes and Social Consequences
- Jurgen T. Rehm
- Volker Gadenne, Mannheim University, FRG
This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.
For social psychologists, applied psychologists, students of business administration, management science, and psychology, also professional forecasters and pollsters.