Forecasting Tourism DemandBy
- Douglas Frechtling, Chair of the Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, The George Washington University,USA
'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition.Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry.'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to:* plan a forecasting project* analyse time series and other information* select the appropriate forecasting model* use the model for forecasting and evaluate its resultsIdeal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
Postgraduate students and practitioners in the tourism industry.Libraries (faculty, site and departmental within universities and colleges and special libraries within industry)
Published: May 2001
Imprint: Butterworth Heinemann
"...well-written, easy to read, and easy to understand without the need of a strong background in statistics. ...an excellent resource for tourism practitioners and government policy makers...[and] graduate or senior undergraduate tourism students." - Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing "This book's broad survey of methods and strategies for forecasting tourism demand will assist tourism and hospitality managers in identifying these coming challenges and in preparing to take advantage of them." - J.W. Marriott Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Marriott International, Washington "Dr Frechtling's book is both a primer and an advanced source on the art and science of tourism forecasting and methods and strategies for their use." - Bjorn Hanson Ph.D, Global Industry Partner - Hospitality & Leisure, PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP "Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing segments of our economy. This book is an essential companion and practical guide for those who are required to forecast passenger demand." - David Swierenga, Chief Economist, Air Transport Association, Washington D.C. "Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies is the right book at the right time ... I would recommend [it] to every researcher around the world exploring the development of tourism satellite accounting systems." - Richard R. Miller, Vice President, Research and Economics World Travel & Tourism Council "...I now have a book that I and other professional researchers can use and apply in a variety of circumstances, markets and tourism components ... Utilizing the methodologies outlined in this book has made our forecasts more adaptable to changes in the environment, easier to explain and, quite simply, more accurate." - Randy Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Smith Travel Research, Tennessee "The book [is] an excellent text for beginning students learning forecasting and is a good overview for the practitioner." - Darryl Jenkins, Director, The Aviation Institute, The George Washington University, Washington D.C. "...this volume is a useful addition to the tourism forecasting literature." - Raphael Bar-On, Tourism and Economic Statistics Consultant, Annals of Tourism Research "...his skills to explain difficult matters in a simple and comprehensive manner, his deep knowledge of tourism demand can be noticed in the accurate content of the book." - Tourism Analysis
- Introduction; Alternative forecasting methods and evaluation; The tourism forecasting process; Basic extrapolative methods and decomposition; Intermediate extrapolative methods; An advanced extrapolative method; Causal models: regression analysis; Causal methods: structural models; Qualitative forecasting methods; Conclusion.