Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration


  • Ian Lerche, Dept. of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, U.S.A.
  • John MacKay, Texaco, Houston, Texas, U.S.A.

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers.
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Scientists, economists, and professionals concerned with exploiting the world's oil and gas resources; oil and gas company explorationists, strategic resource economists, and academic and private research scientists involved in quantitative geology problems or who deal with the economic risk associated with hydrocarbon exploration.


Book information

  • Published: January 1999
  • ISBN: 978-0-12-444165-1

Table of Contents

Preface. Introduction. Risk Adjusted Value (RAV) and Working Interest. Uncertainty and Probability Estimates for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Portfolio Balancing and Risk Adjusted Values Under Constrained Budget Conditions. Similarity, Dependence and Correlation for Risk Adjusted Values and Working Interest. Modifications to Risk Aversion in High Gain Situations. Corporate Funding Requests, Fixed Budgets, and Cost Balancing. Maximizing Oil Field Profit in the Face of Uncertainty. The Value of Added Information: Categories of Worth. Counting Successes, and Bidding Statistics Analyses. Economic Model Uncertainties. Bayesian Updating of an Opportunity. Options in Exploration Risk Analysis. Appendix A: Numerical Methods and Spread Sheets. Epilogue: Summary. References.