Repository of macro models

This repository contains descriptions of macro-models which relate to papers published or forthcoming in Economic Modelling

A forecasting model of the Kenyan economy

Title of Paper: A forecasting model of the Kenyan economy

Author: Jacob Wanjala Musila, Economic Policy and Analysis Division, Nova Scotia Department of Finance, Canada and U.L. Gouranga Rao, Department of Economics, Dalhousie University, Canada

Vol./Issue No.: scheduled for 18/-

Short description: A demand-oriented macroeconometric model of the Kenyan economy is developed and estimated in line with the cointegration technique. The estimated structure of the model is used to perform policy simulation experiments to determine the sensitivity of key macroeconomic variables to changes in exchange rate, net government current expenditure, and nominal interest rate. The results of policy simulation experiments reveal that the exchange rate and fiscal policies are relatively more effective than the monetary policy, i.e., changing the nominal interest rate, in influencing the level of economic activity. The results point to the possibility of devaluation improving the international trade balance.

JEL classification: E1; E6; O5

Keywords: Macroeconomic model, Cointegration, Impact analysis

Country: Kenya

Linkage address: http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~ba014/models/m20010424.pdf

Disclaimer: Responsibility for the full model structures of the models in this repository rests solely with the authors.

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