Repository of macro models
This repository contains descriptions of macro-models which relate to papers published or forthcoming in Economic Modelling
Title of the model: ADB Philippine Macroeconometric Model
Title of paper model belongs to: A small macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy
Authors: Duo Qin, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Queen Mary, University of London, UK and Geoffrey Ducanes, Marie Anne Cagas, Pilipinas Quising, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Asian Development Bank
Vol./Issue No.: 23/1
Short description:
The ADB Philippine model is a quarterly macroeconometric model for policy
analysis and forecasting. The model consists of 74 endogenous and 14 exogenous
variables covering private consumption, investment, government, foreign
trade, GDP 3-sector labor and production, and the price and monetary sectors.
Sample data is from 1990 to 2003. The equilibrium-correction model (ECM)
form is used for all behavioral equations. Model construction follows
the general?specific dynamic specification approach to ensure the best
possible blend of well-established a priori long-run theories, short-run
shock variables through a posteriori data guidance, and the special features
of the Philippine economy. Special attention is devoted to the government
block design to enable various simulations of the fiscal debt problem,
the economy’s most critical problem at present. The resulting model
demonstrates good forecasting capacity and versatile potential for policy
simulations. The tracking performance of the model, both within-sample
and out-of-sample, has been evaluated and found satisfactory.
JEL classification:
Keywords: Macro-econometric model; the Philippine economy; forecasts; simulations
County/continent/region: Philippines
Linkage address :
http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/WP062.pdf
Disclaimer: Responsibility for the full model structures of the models in this repository rests solely with the authors.